NCAAF Nameless overcomplicated stratigy

1. I keep a log of all the teams O/U games to guess what they are likely to do.  Example: Arizona hits over week 1 then week 2 they should hit under, Auburn hits under, over, under, in weeks 1-3 then they are due to hit over.

2. I only look at games that the O/U total is < 3X the spread, and the two teams playing are both due to hit the same thing whether it is over or under.

3.  If the teams are both to hit over I bet on the fav, if they are both to hit under I bet on the dog.

Here is how I got one of my week 2 picks.

Wk 1 Webb State and Arizona State went under, so did New Mexico and UTEP, which means that Arizona State and UTEP are due to hit over.  ASU is a 25pt fav and the OU is 67, 67<3X25 so I will bet on this one.  Since they are both due to hit over I'm betting on the fav.

This will probably be a bust but it's just for fun, here are my week 1 picks that fit the formula. 

Arizona

Auburn

Colorado

Fla Atl

Miss St

Tulsa

Playing the pointspread.  Air Force and thank you.

YTD Record 3-2-1 $+14% 

Arizona St 

Auburn 

Colorado 

Fla-Atl 

Mississipi St 

Tulsa 

2-3-1.

I've been looking at changing the formula slightly.  Instead of saying a team was over in a game just because the game was an over, I'm going to calculate how much each team needed to contribute in regards to the spread then determine if a team is over/under.  Meaning that in a game one team could be over and the other under.  If I would have done that this week it would of changed Fla-Atl to Alabama and Miss State to UAB.  And the end result if the Alabama game would not have been called would of been 4-2-0.

If the game doesn't go 55 mins at topbet they don't count it. 

Lou-Tech

Buffalo

Marshall

Pittsburgh

Michigan

Alabama

Utah State

Ohio State

I like several of those!