NCAAF Fade System

Long time Covers lurker here.  This site has brought me a few bright spots, I used the Lab betting method which I learned here to make good money last year in CBB, and it has brought me a few bad spots, I was suckered into following Morrison for a short time.  I developed a system that has been winning all season and thought I would share the plays.

I've been gambling on sports for about 17 years now and have never had much success playing NCAAF, which also happens to be my favorite sport to bet on.  After realizing that I can not pick the games myself I started trying various systems, which were either losers or broke even at best.

I finally developed this system, which fades a handful of computer generated picks.  My logic is if there is a consensus that a certain team should cover, and Vegas has the line off enough where every predictor says take that team, then you bet the opposite.  It has won every week since I have been tracking it, since week 3.  Hopefully I have not put the big jinx on by posting to Covers.

 

This week the plays are:

Central Michigan

Northwestern

Texas A&M

San Jose St

Idaho

Arkansas St

USC

Ohio St.

If anyone is interested I will keep posting the plays.  

Thanks, will follow.

Central Michigan - L (fell apart at the end)

Northwestern - W (comfortably)

Texas A&M - L (-10.5 favs, up 11 at half, fell apart in 2nd half)

San Jose St

Idaho

Arkansas St

USC

Ohio St.

Not the results that I had hoped for last week as we broke even at 4-4, although it really should have been 5-3.  Hard to count USC as a loss, losing in 3O by 8 while catching 7.5, but that's been more of the norm during my gambling career.  I have been hitting around 67% for the year so hopefully we can get back on track this week.  I'll post this weeks plays on Thursday or Friday as soon as I have time to look at all the games.

 

There is a play on tonight's game on Ohio.

 

I use various predictors found here, https://predictiontracker.com/.

 

Oops, wrong link.  Try this one, https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/.

good pick on Ohio tonight.Post your picks Im interested

I agree with you 100% on USC, that had to be one of the most bizarre half-point losses ever.

CMU was a bad beat as well, done in mainly by bad coaching. I don't remember the exact specifics, but at some point in the middle of the 4th quarter, CMU had the ball at midfield and was up multiple scores. They had a 4th and 4, or so. Any analytics guy would tell you to go for it. If they picked up the first, they could have run down the clock, and completely broken Akron's will. But the idiotic coach punted, and sure enough therally started. Coaches, for the most part, are moronic. Why would you willingly give your opponent the ball? Isn't that called a turnover??? I am tired of losing bets due to coaches who don't understand simple sabermetrics.

Thanks.  I'll have the plays up later tonight.

 

There is a play tonight on Akron. 

Akron really crapped the bed tonight.

 

My plays this weekend are:

Air Force

Arkansas

Baylor

Kanas

Virginia

Troy St.

Oregon St

South Florida

Tulane

MTSU 

Very interesting website. If you don't mind sharing, what is the specific ccriteria that you use to male the picks?

Thanks for the explanation. I thought I'd rearrange this thread by starting time. I'm tailing this thread, I love the logic behind it.

YTD: 5-5
WTD: 1-1

Kansas (+14) at Iowa State, in progress - Pick: Kansas
Virginia (-3) at Maryland, in progress - Pick: Virginia
Tulane (+26) at SMU, 3:00 ET - Pick: Tulane
Troy (+6.5) at Navy, 3:30 ET - Pick: Troy
Stanford at Oregon State (+20.5), 3:30 ET - Pick: Oregon St.
Army at Air Force (-17), 3:30 ET - Pick: AF
Mid Tenn St (+21.5) at Tennessee, 7:00 ET - Pick: MTSU
South Florida (-2.5) at Rutgers, 7:00 ET - Pick: USF
Missouri at Baylor (-2.5), 7:00 ET - Pick: Baylor
South Carolina at Arkansas (-5), 7:15 ET- Pick: Arkansas

10 games going on today, let's get at least 6 wins. Thanks for the picks.

YTD: 7-5
WTD: 3-1

Kansas (+14) at Iowa State, in progress - Pick: Kansas  - WIN
Virginia (-3) at Maryland, in progress - Pick: Virginia - WIN
Tulane (+26) at SMU, In Progress (Tulane down 14 at start of 4th, SMU ball, hopeful win) - Pick: Tulane
Troy (+6.5) at Navy, In Progress (Troy down 35 at half, YIKES!) - Pick: Troy
Stanford at Oregon State (+20.5), In Progress (Stanford up 10 in 3rd Q, OSU has ball, hopefully this wins) - Pick: Oregon St.
Army at Air Force (-17), In Progress (Army up 14-3 in 3rd, this'll probably be a loss)  - Pick: AF
Mid Tenn St (+21.5) at Tennessee, 7:00 ET - Pick: MTSU
South Florida (-2.5) at Rutgers, 7:00 ET - Pick: USF
Missouri at Baylor (-2.5), 7:00 ET - Pick: Baylor
South Carolina at Arkansas (-5), 7:15 ET- Pick: Arkansas

Hopefully we can split the 3:30 games to get to 4-2 on the day.

YTD: 8-8
WTD: 4-4
Today: 3-3

Kansas (+14) at Iowa State, in progress - Pick: Kansas  - WIN
Virginia (-3) at Maryland, in progress - Pick: Virginia - WIN
Tulane (+26) at SMU, Pick: Tulane - WIN
Troy (+6.5) at Navy - Pick: Troy - LOSS
Stanford at Oregon State (+20.5)  - Pick: Oregon St. - LOSS
Army at Air Force (-17)  - Pick: AF - LOSS
Mid Tenn St (+21.5) at Tennessee, 7:00 ET - Pick: MTSU
South Florida (-2.5) at Rutgers, 7:00 ET - Pick: USF
Missouri at Baylor (-2.5), 7:00 ET - Pick: Baylor
South Carolina at Arkansas (-5), 7:15 ET- Pick: Arkansas

We need to go 3-1 at night to have a winning week.

 

3-1 would be nice, I have a good feeling about tonight.  Although MTSU is not looking good.

4-4 last week gives me another break even week, minus juice.  Again it should have been a winning week week at 5-3 if South Florida doesn't miss a FG from point blank range to win and cover.  Two weeks in a row that luck gas not been on my side and cost me a winning week.  My plays this week are:

Louisville -3

Purdue +8

Troy -8

Illinois -1

Texas AM -5.5

Minnesota +27

Central Florida +9.5

Nevada -16

Washington St. +11.5

Best of luck!