NBA road favorite 1st & 3rd Quarter plays System

System needs to match this criteria:

1. Take the biggest road favorite on the board. (Also, make sure that they are favored with a point spread above -6).

2. The road favorite must be in the top 10 power rankings.

Then bet on the road favorite to cover the spread for the 1st Quarter. If they fail to cover in the 1st cover in the 1st Quarter, double up your bet on the 3rd Quarter play for the road team to cover.

If the road favorite has a push in the 1st Quarter. Take the push and do not bet the 3rd Quarter. 

Nov. 7th the play is on the Celtics -4.5 1st Quarter

 

Sweet

Do they have to be in the same Conference?

No I don't think conference matters. It might be a filter that we can add on later once we have some better understanding of how this system does.

No! Conference makes no difference.

They can be in the same conference or out of conference, according to the system.

11/7 - [A]Boston over New Jersey -4 1Q
Tip off time: 7:30

Dude !!!!!!!!      hahahaha.............

   mat4g's
Let's rock n ross

11/7 - [B]Boston over New Jersey -4 3Q

Well, 0-1. Not a good start.

Be cautious putting money on this unless it starts to prove itself.

Matt or anyone, can you attempt to back test this for last year?  I know it will be difficult, but I believe the best way to do this is to use Covers and go day by day searching for the largest favorite and estimate their 1Q and 3Q lines, by dividing the full game spread by 4 and adding 1/2 point.  It will not be scientific, but it would give us an idea.  The 3Q line that comes out at the half is the deciding factor.  But we can be in the ballpark.  Good luck.

I will not be back home until Thursday. If no one does it by then. I will give it a try.

I can just give a couple of days

Okay here we go 2008-2009 NBA season
Road favorite by 6 points or more.

10/29 - Lakers - Push
10/31 - Orlando - Series Lost
11/1 - Dallas - 1Q win
11/1 - Lakers - 3Q win
11/4 - Pheonix - 1Q win
11/5 - Boston - 3Q win
11/7 - Houston - 1Q win
11/8 - Pheonix - 1Q win
11/11 - Lakers - 3Q win
11/12 - Orlando - 3Q win
11/14 - Houston - Push
11/15 - Boston - Series Lost
11/16 - Orlando - 3Q win
11/17 - Houston - 3Q win
11/21 - Houston - Series Lost
11/25 - Cleveland - 1Q win
11/25 - Pheonix - Series Lost
11/29 - Boston - Series Lost
11/29 - Cleveland - 1Q win
12/2 - Lakers - 3Q win
12/3 - Lakers - 1Q win
12/5 - Lakers - 1Q win
12/6 - Cleveland - 1Q win
12/7 - Boston - 1Q win
12/8 - Houston - Series Lost
12/9 - Utah - 1Q win
12/9 - Lakers - Series Lost
12/10 - Cleveland - 3Q win
12/11 - Boston - 1Q win
12/12 - San Antonio - 3Q win
12/17 - Cleveland - Push
12/19 - Lakers - Series Lost
12/21 - Dallas - 3Q win
12/21 - Cleveland - 3Q win
12/22 - Lakers - 3Q win
12/22 - Houston - 1Q win
12/26 - Boston - 1Q win
12/27 - Orlando - 1Q win
12/28 - Boston - 1Q win
12/29 - Pheonix - Series Lost
12/30 - Boston - 1Q win
1/2 - Denver - 1Q win
1/4 - Orlando - 3Q win
1/4 - Cleveland - Series Lost
1/4 - Dallas - Series Lost
1/4 - Boston - Series Lost
1/6 - Boston - Series Lost
1/7 - Lakers - 1Q win
1/9 - Houston - Series Lost
1/11 - Pheonix - 1Q win
1/13 - Cleveland - 1Q win
1/13 - Orlando - 1Q win
1/15 - Cleveland - 1Q win
1/17 - Boston - 1Q win
1/21 - Pheonix - 1Q win
1/21 - Lakers - 3Q win
1/23 - Cleveland - Push
1/24 - Orlando - Series Lost
1/27 - Denver - Series Lost
1/30 - Lakers - 3Q win
1/31 - Lakers - 3Q win
2/1 - Orlando - 1Q win
2/4 - Lakers - 3Q win
2/4 - Houston - Series Lost
2/6 - Orlando - 3Q win
2/6 - Boston - Series Lost
2/6 - Denver - 1Q win
2/9 - Houston - Series Lost
2/10 - Cleveland - Series Lost
2/11 - San Antonio - 3Q win
2/11 - Boston - Push
2/18 - Cleveland - 3Q win
2/18 - Atlanta - 1Q win
2/18 - Pheonix - Series Lost
2/20 - Cleveland - 3Q win
2/21 - San Antonio - 1Q win
2/22 - Lakers - Push
2/24 - Lakers - 1Q win
2/25 - Utah - 3Q win
2/25 - Boston - Series Lost
3/1 - Houston - 1Q win
3/1 - Lakers - Series Lost
3/2 - Dallas - Series Lost
3/2 - San Antonio - 1Q win
3/4 - Boston - 1Q win
3/8 - Denver - Series Lost
3/10 - Cleveland - Series Lost
3/13 - Orlando - 1Q win
3/13 - Cleveland - Series Lost
3/15 - Boston - 1Q win
3/18 - Denver - Series Lost
3/21 - Boston - 3Q win
3/22 - Cleveland - 1Q win
3/23 - Orlando - Series Lost
3/24 - Lakers - 1Q win
3/26 - Lakers - 1Q win
3/27 - Lakers - 1Q win
3/29 - Pheonix - Series Lost
3/31 - Dallas - 1Q win
4/1 - Lakers - Series Lost
4/2 - Cleveland - Series Lost
4/3 - Dallas - 1Q win
4/5 - Denver - 1Q win
4/7 - San Antonio - Series Lost
4/7 - Lakers - Series Lost
4/9 - Houston - 3Q win
4/10 - Cleveland - 1Q win
4/10 - Houston - 1Q win
4/11 - Orlando - Series Lost
4/12 - San Antonio - 3Q win
4/26 - Cleveland - Series Lost

Thanks Kevin.  Hmmm, looks like playing the Martingale, we are in the negative.  At 74-36, that is a crappy record.  At least we have something to work on - although all I seem to see here are Lakers, celtics, cavs, dallas, phoenix, houston, and orlando.  7 elite teams from last year. 

Perhaps we can filter out based on quantity of games played that day, whether the team we are playing won its last game, playing a long road trip, see how the team did in the 2nd Qtr of its game.  lots of angles. 

Kevin,

Brah thanks for back testing- that must've take hours!

yeah most of our loses started to pile in around the start of march. Also I left out teams like the hornets and trailblazers because I did not have the power rankings for last year. I decided to leave them out and just focus on the "power teams".

For some god forsaken reason I woke up on the crack of dawn thinking about sunday FOOTBALL. I guess winning money every weekend can do that to you. (Nods at Kangy). Saw the request and decided to go for it.

11/7 - [A]Orlando at Oklahoma City -2 1Q

Orlando Series Push

0-1-1

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=100577040&page=3

Thanks Kevin for your work. I am done with this thread, since your work shows the poor history of this. We need to tweak it. PM me. I have some ideas.