NBA Quater Chase System - *Time Required*

Hey guys, I have been thinking of trying to come up with some kind of chase system that I haven't seen on any of these threads, that I actually truthfully thought could be profitable.

Chase systems are unique. They seem like they really work and can be profitable until those rare losses occur and you don't realize how much they account for, and your back to even or more likely in the negative.

For a chase system really be profitable in the long, the system has to have an event or series of events that is likely to flip or reverse a current trend. Really being able to quantify these things is the hard part and a reason I tend to not think much of chase systems.

A lot of chase systems I see say after a team has lost 4 straight ATS, then bet on them to cover and if they don't then chase for 3 games. I really don't think that there is much to these types of chase systems personally because even though it would seem logical that a team might be more determined to play better next game out, they might tank it as well. I imagine that the chance these teams cover from game to game are really no better than 50/50.

I do think there is some validity to the chase systems though that account for some psychological effects on teams, like road trip series chases in the NBA and NHL, especially going from coast to coast or whatnot. But again, it's really challenging to quantify these types of things, although I am thinking of doing a statistical study on them if I can create a database for them.

What I am proposing here is a chase system that I think can work...

But before I go on I want to make it clear that what I propose requires sitting at your computer for a few straight hours (possibly) and being very punctual and alert up to the minute. It's going to sound really challenging to be done when I start to explain, but I don't doubt it can be done.

Here it is:

This is exclusively for the NBA, and it requires betting quarter lines.
If a team doesn't cover their spread in the 1st quarter line by 6 points, at intermission between 1st and 2nd half play the 2nd quarter spread on them. If they lose, chase till the end of the game. Very simple, but you can see why it can be time consuming. Also, not every book carries these, one reputable one that I would suggest that has these lines even prior to the start of the game is 5 Dimes.

Also when chasing, the user must know how to correctly chase. I see a lot of people on here who don't correctly chase with unit amounts and what not.

If you bet 1 unit on a game, correctly chasing is not betting 2 units on the next game, because the juice isn't accounted for. Or betting 1.1 units and then chasing with 2.2 units or 4.4 units is wrong.

For purposes here, I'll record 1.1 unit on each game that qualifies, to win 1 unit. Here are the scenarios for this system with the corresponding bet amounts.

2nd Quarter Play - 1.1 units
3rd Quarter Play - 2.31 units
4th Quarter Play - 4.851 units

Any win throughout the game, with these amounts results in a 1 unit increase. Any loss, which means that all three bets lost, results in -8.261 units.

To break even these have to hit higher than 89.2% (8.261/9.261). By just doing this blindly without a parameter (6 pt difference from the spread in the 1st quarter) one could expect to hit at 87.5%. So by adding the parameter we hope to gain the 2 % we need to break even and even above.

I think this is possible because each quarter is obviously a part or 1/4 of the total game. And for whole game the outcome will more than likely regress or progress to the game spread throughout all 4 quarters. So my basis for this is that if in the 1st quarter, there is a large swing 1 way on one team, we are betting that for the rest of the game, somewhere along the way during 1 quarter the spread should regress or progress to the initial pregame spread for the entire game.

I will start recording by using the games from tonight.

Use the first game to explain what is going on...

New Jersey was +1 for the 1st Quarter. They were outscored 31-21 in the first quarter by Indiana, for a difference of 9 points from their line. So a 1.1 unit bet would be placed on NJ for their 2nd Quarter Line which was +1 also. They outscored Indiana 25, 23 in the second quarter so this would be a win without the need to chase.

New Jersey/ 2nd Q/ +1 (-2)

Miami/ 2nd Q/ -2 (-5)

LA Clippers/ 2nd Q/ -.5 (-2)

Phoenix/ 2nd Q/ +.5 (-9)

4-0 (100%), +4.00 units

Does 5dimes post the 2nd and 4th quarters after the 1st and 3rd?  I've seen 1,2,3,4 before the game, and 3,4 at the half, but I'm not sure if I have seen the 2nd after the 1st and 4th after the 3rd.

This looks good thanks for the input Fresh.

I checked with 5dimes.  They only offer quarter plays prior to tip-off and the 3rd and 4th at halftime.  I am not aware of any book that offers quarter betting between the 1st and 2nd and 3rd and 4th.

sounds interesting... did u do any backtesting to c if it works or r u jus trying it out?