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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    NBA possible system?

    jerm73
    $$$inmywallett
    sahlsa
    jv040
    Sharkysden
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    jerm73
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    Posted: Oct. 4, 2009 - 9:09 PM ET #1

    I just looked over about half of the teams 2008 results and it looked to me like playing any team coming off of two consecutive losses SU and ATS and chasing them for 2 or 3 games seemed to look pretty good, if anyone has the time to look into it further please do, I will check into this further when I have time.
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I just looked over about half of the teams 2008 results and it looked to me like playing any team coming off of two consecutive losses SU and ATS and chasing them for 2 or 3 games seemed to look pretty good, if anyone has the time to look into it further please do, I will check into this further when I have time.
     
    $$$inmywallett
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 3:50 PM ET #2

    would this be to play the ML or Spread?
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    would this be to play the ML or Spread?
     
    sahlsa
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 3:53 PM ET #3

    Quote Originally Posted by jerm73:

    I just looked over about half of the teams 2008 results and it looked to me like playing any team coming off of two consecutive losses SU and ATS and chasing them for 2 or 3 games seemed to look pretty good, if anyone has the time to look into it further please do, I will check into this further when I have time.


    What is SU ?
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    Quote Originally Posted by jerm73:

    I just looked over about half of the teams 2008 results and it looked to me like playing any team coming off of two consecutive losses SU and ATS and chasing them for 2 or 3 games seemed to look pretty good, if anyone has the time to look into it further please do, I will check into this further when I have time.


    What is SU ?
     
    $$$inmywallett
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 3:56 PM ET #4

    SU = Straight Up
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    SU = Straight Up
     
    sahlsa
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 3:59 PM ET #5

    But system dies on the first team I checked https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2008-2009/team404067.html

    12/23/08 @ Charlotte L 72-80 Regular Season L 6 U 189
    12/21/08 Dallas L 86-97 Regular Season L 6 U 201
    12/19/08 Philadelphia L 103-109 Regular Season L 1.5 O 195
    12/17/08 @ Detroit L 74-88 Regular Season L 9.5 U 200
    12/15/08 Indiana L 98-118 Regular Season L -1 O 212
    12/13/08 @ Philadelphia L 89-104 Regular Season L 5.5 U 195.5
    12/11/08 Boston L 88-122 Regular Season L 10 O 196

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    But system dies on the first team I checked https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2008-2009/team404067.html

    12/23/08 @ Charlotte L 72-80 Regular Season L 6 U 189
    12/21/08 Dallas L 86-97 Regular Season L 6 U 201
    12/19/08 Philadelphia L 103-109 Regular Season L 1.5 O 195
    12/17/08 @ Detroit L 74-88 Regular Season L 9.5 U 200
    12/15/08 Indiana L 98-118 Regular Season L -1 O 212
    12/13/08 @ Philadelphia L 89-104 Regular Season L 5.5 U 195.5
    12/11/08 Boston L 88-122 Regular Season L 10 O 196

     
    jerm73
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 4:15 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by sahlsa:

    But system dies on the first team I checked https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2008-2009/team404067.html

    12/23/08 @ Charlotte L 72-80 Regular Season L 6 U 189
    12/21/08 Dallas L 86-97 Regular Season L 6 U 201
    12/19/08 Philadelphia L 103-109 Regular Season L 1.5 O 195
    12/17/08 @ Detroit L 74-88 Regular Season L 9.5 U 200
    12/15/08 Indiana L 98-118 Regular Season L -1 O 212
    12/13/08 @ Philadelphia L 89-104 Regular Season L 5.5 U 195.5
    12/11/08 Boston L 88-122 Regular Season L 10 O 196




    I was thinking more along the lines of ATS(laying no more than -115), I did see that a few of the crappy teams did have loosing streaks that extended far beyond 4 or 5, maybe by eliminating these?
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    Quote Originally Posted by sahlsa:

    But system dies on the first team I checked https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/teams/pastresults/2008-2009/team404067.html

    12/23/08 @ Charlotte L 72-80 Regular Season L 6 U 189
    12/21/08 Dallas L 86-97 Regular Season L 6 U 201
    12/19/08 Philadelphia L 103-109 Regular Season L 1.5 O 195
    12/17/08 @ Detroit L 74-88 Regular Season L 9.5 U 200
    12/15/08 Indiana L 98-118 Regular Season L -1 O 212
    12/13/08 @ Philadelphia L 89-104 Regular Season L 5.5 U 195.5
    12/11/08 Boston L 88-122 Regular Season L 10 O 196




    I was thinking more along the lines of ATS(laying no more than -115), I did see that a few of the crappy teams did have loosing streaks that extended far beyond 4 or 5, maybe by eliminating these?
     
    $$$inmywallett
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 4:22 PM ET #7

    yeah, reason i asked is because it failed also on Boston Celtics last year too, if you were betting ATS.  They went 2-1 with this, but went 4-0 on SU.
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    yeah, reason i asked is because it failed also on Boston Celtics last year too, if you were betting ATS.  They went 2-1 with this, but went 4-0 on SU.
     
    sahlsa
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 4:23 PM ET #8

    But what about a good team like Lakers ?

    12/22/08 @ Memphis W 105-96 Regular Season L -11.5 U 206
    12/20/08 @ Orlando L 103-106 Regular Season L -1.5 O 205.5
    12/19/08 @ Miami L 87-89 Regular Season L -8 U 202.5
    12/16/08 New York W 116-114 Regular Season L -13 O 221.5
    12/14/08 Minnesota W 98-86 Regular Season L -15 U 210
    12/12/08 Sacramento W 112-103 Regular Season L -17 O 214
    12/10/08 Phoenix W 115-110 Regular Season L -13.5 O 216
    12/09/08 @ Sacramento L 101-113 Regular Season L -11.5 O 211.5
    12/07/08 Milwaukee W 105-92 Regular Season L -13.5 U 208.5
    12/05/08 @ Washington W 106-104 Regular Season L -12 U 213

    The ML odds would kill you and ATS is also not a good idea.
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    But what about a good team like Lakers ?

    12/22/08 @ Memphis W 105-96 Regular Season L -11.5 U 206
    12/20/08 @ Orlando L 103-106 Regular Season L -1.5 O 205.5
    12/19/08 @ Miami L 87-89 Regular Season L -8 U 202.5
    12/16/08 New York W 116-114 Regular Season L -13 O 221.5
    12/14/08 Minnesota W 98-86 Regular Season L -15 U 210
    12/12/08 Sacramento W 112-103 Regular Season L -17 O 214
    12/10/08 Phoenix W 115-110 Regular Season L -13.5 O 216
    12/09/08 @ Sacramento L 101-113 Regular Season L -11.5 O 211.5
    12/07/08 Milwaukee W 105-92 Regular Season L -13.5 U 208.5
    12/05/08 @ Washington W 106-104 Regular Season L -12 U 213

    The ML odds would kill you and ATS is also not a good idea.
     
    jerm73
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 4:37 PM ET #9

    Your right, just looked at a few teams coming off of just 1 loss SU and ATS and the numbers were marginal at best winning the next game ATS just over %50, well will keep searching.
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    Your right, just looked at a few teams coming off of just 1 loss SU and ATS and the numbers were marginal at best winning the next game ATS just over %50, well will keep searching.
     
    sahlsa
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    Posted: Oct. 5, 2009 - 4:57 PM ET #10

    I had a NBA system starting around late january 2008, a 6-game chase when ever team went 2 games in a row under/over or lost/won ATS.
    It gave 238 games and a profit of 154 units. 76'ers had a 8 game run where they won 8 matches in ATS, so that costed a bit

    I can see that if I had used it all season I would also have lost on Lakers, but in general the streaks can be pretty long, but the amount of games could even up the few loses.
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    I had a NBA system starting around late january 2008, a 6-game chase when ever team went 2 games in a row under/over or lost/won ATS.
    It gave 238 games and a profit of 154 units. 76'ers had a 8 game run where they won 8 matches in ATS, so that costed a bit

    I can see that if I had used it all season I would also have lost on Lakers, but in general the streaks can be pretty long, but the amount of games could even up the few loses.
     
    jv040
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2009 - 10:15 AM ET #11

    heres one take teams that are .575 pct and above starting after teams play around 10 games and bet them to win su after loosing 2 games su. chase or labaurche up to 3 times. I'm going to be only going 2 times this year my self. using labaurche line.
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    heres one take teams that are .575 pct and above starting after teams play around 10 games and bet them to win su after loosing 2 games su. chase or labaurche up to 3 times. I'm going to be only going 2 times this year my self. using labaurche line.
     
    Sharkysden
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2009 - 10:28 AM ET #12

    You should look up 2 consecutive losses on the road then coming home.  Just a thought. 
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    You should look up 2 consecutive losses on the road then coming home.  Just a thought. 
     
    masterofbets
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2009 - 10:37 AM ET #13

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    powerade
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2009 - 1:39 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:

    You should look up 2 consecutive losses on the road then coming home.  Just a thought. 

    two years ago this when 45-15 ATS

     but then i looked back further and it proved to be a fluke

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:

    You should look up 2 consecutive losses on the road then coming home.  Just a thought. 

    two years ago this when 45-15 ATS

     but then i looked back further and it proved to be a fluke

     
    powerade
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2009 - 1:40 PM ET #15

     
     CHASING
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     CHASING
     
    MontanaMax
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    Posted: Oct. 6, 2009 - 2:14 PM ET #16

    Hmmm.........
    Ok
    How about our boy  JM and his (but not his) NFL system

    What would it look like to chase (whether martingale or labourchere) a team ATS as dogs or ML fav's after losing 3 SU and ATS?
    Filters would help too

    Just throwing it on the wall to see if it sticks


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    Hmmm.........
    Ok
    How about our boy  JM and his (but not his) NFL system

    What would it look like to chase (whether martingale or labourchere) a team ATS as dogs or ML fav's after losing 3 SU and ATS?
    Filters would help too

    Just throwing it on the wall to see if it sticks


     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Oct. 8, 2009 - 9:04 PM ET #17

    You cannot just use a two game SU and ATS for this system.  The teams play about every other day, so there will be longer loosing streaks.  Try all teams with four game SU and ATS wins, chase a loss up to three or labby it.  Same thing with four consecutive SU and ATS losses, chase a win or labby it.  No matter how you stack it, some teams do go on an 8, 9 or even 10 game SU and ATS win or lose streak.  However, you do not want to make the stipulation too restrictive or you will not have any games to play.  So expect losses.

    Another system to use, try all teams that have the following sequences (W-L-W-L-W-L, chase a win or O-U-O-U-O-U, chase an over).  This one may be restrictive enough to work and not cover a streak.  Since there is a one in 64 chance of this sequence occurring, the plays may be rare, but they should be more winners than losers.
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    You cannot just use a two game SU and ATS for this system.  The teams play about every other day, so there will be longer loosing streaks.  Try all teams with four game SU and ATS wins, chase a loss up to three or labby it.  Same thing with four consecutive SU and ATS losses, chase a win or labby it.  No matter how you stack it, some teams do go on an 8, 9 or even 10 game SU and ATS win or lose streak.  However, you do not want to make the stipulation too restrictive or you will not have any games to play.  So expect losses.

    Another system to use, try all teams that have the following sequences (W-L-W-L-W-L, chase a win or O-U-O-U-O-U, chase an over).  This one may be restrictive enough to work and not cover a streak.  Since there is a one in 64 chance of this sequence occurring, the plays may be rare, but they should be more winners than losers.
     
     
    usakangy
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    Posted: Oct. 8, 2009 - 9:17 PM ET #18

    If you want to really be crazy, how about this one:

    Take only home teams.  Starting with the first home game of the season, play the over, then play the under for the second home game, third home game play the over, etc.  After each win start the series over and chase or labby it for three games.  Pay no attention to road trips or home stands.  Each team should have 41 home games (theoretically), so that gives us a lot of opportunity to make money. 

    No, this is not as much a "system" as it is taking a shot in the dark or looking for the hidden needle in the haystack.  I started something like this, but never backtested more than the current year.  
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    If you want to really be crazy, how about this one:

    Take only home teams.  Starting with the first home game of the season, play the over, then play the under for the second home game, third home game play the over, etc.  After each win start the series over and chase or labby it for three games.  Pay no attention to road trips or home stands.  Each team should have 41 home games (theoretically), so that gives us a lot of opportunity to make money. 

    No, this is not as much a "system" as it is taking a shot in the dark or looking for the hidden needle in the haystack.  I started something like this, but never backtested more than the current year.  
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