nba picks good spreads

 THE LINES MAKERS RESPOND TO THE PUBLIC'S BETTING PATTERNS. THE PUBLIC BETS ON THE FAVORITES 70% OF THE TIME WHEN THE DOG HAS A LOSING RECORD OVERALL. BECAUSE THEY CONTINUE TO BET THE FAVORITES THE SPREADS ARE OFTEN OFF. SOMETIMES FAVORITES THAT HAVE LUKEWARM RECORDS ARE GOOD PLAYS. SELDOM DO REALLY GOOD TEAMS GET VALUE. I WILL GIVE OUT GAMES THIS YEAR WHEN THERE IS VALUE ON A TEAM. MY FORMULA MAKES MONEY EVERY YEAR IN THE NBA. I WILL NOT DO COLLEGE BECAUSE CONFERENCE STRENGTH IS HARDER TO DECIPHER BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF BALANCE. WHEN CONFERENCE PLAY STARTS IT BECOMES MORE PREDICTABLE.

   FIRST PLAY OF THE SEASON IS HOUSTON+5 SPREAD SHOULD BE PICK TO +4.AT SOME POINT I MIGHT SELL THE FORMULA BUT FOR NOW I WILL OFFER HINTS AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES.

   THE BEST TO YOU

   PROF K

 

Did they teach you to write in caps when you were getting your PHD, professor? I think that's the first lesson in grad school: type everything in capitals as it makes it look like you know what you're talking about.

 I AM TRYING TO GET THE KINKS OUT OF MY POSTINGS. SINCE I DO 3 DIFFERENT THINGS I HAVE NOT PRESENTED MY PICKS  AS WELL AS I COULD. ALSO 2 NIGHTS AGO I HANDICAPPD A GAME WITHOUT REALIZING ONE OF THE TEAMS HAD JUST PLAYED A GAME AND IT WAS NOT POSTED YET. THAT MADE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN MY HANDICAPPING. WHEN I FIRST ISSUED MY POTENTIAL PLAY I HAD SACREMENTO AS BEING GOOD VALUE ON MY VALUE LINE. SINCE THEY MADE THE "COLD TEAM" LIST BECAUSE OF HOW THEY PLAYED IN THE LAST 2 GAMES THE SPREAD I ORIGINALLY POSTED WAS OFF A WHOOPING 10 POINTS . I CORRECTED THE ERROR BUT PROBAB LY FEW SAW IT. HANDICAPPING AT 1:30 IN THE MORNING IS NOT A GOOD THING FOR ME. I WILL WAIT UNTIL MORNING WHEN I AM FRESH AND WHEN ALL PREVIOUS GAME RESULTS HAVE BEEN POSTED.

 HERE ARE TODAYS GAMES . YOU WILL SEE THE SPREAD, THE VALUE LINE AND ADDED POINTS FOR CERTAIN OTHER  FACTORS. PAY ATTENTION TO THE LAST FIGURE. THAT IS THE ONE TO BE USED WHEN A GAME IS TO BE PLAYED. REMEMBER A GAME MUST BE 3 POINTS OR MORE  OFF TO BE A PLAY.

              LINE   MY VALUE LINE-  ADDED POINTS-  TOTAL

 SAN ANT -4  DAL     -3                +1 SAN ANT        -4 SAN ANT

  HOUS    -3 BOS     -1 1/2             +1 BOST             - 1/2 HOUS

 PHOE     -7  NJ             -2                +1PHOE              -3 PHOE

   NEW JERSEY  IS  A PLAY AT +7  . SHOULD BE +3

   NO PLAY SAN ANT  DAL  SPREAD IS RIGHT ON

   BOST                                     +3     SHOULD BE + 1/2

   IF HOUSTON GOS TO-3 1/2  BOSTON IS A PLAY        

 

When are you planning to sell the formula?Hell I ain't getting know younger last I heard we only have 1 life span even though I wish it was nine lives.Better yet what's the best book to read on sports investing I have kids to feed and and I'm getting old.  

hey professor i have been following your plays the last few days, it started out very good but you keep picking sac-who are horrible-esp. on the road it doesn't make sense maybe at home getting points there is value! yesterday was really bad 0-3, hpoefully no more days like that!

  TIME IS AN ISSUE WITH ME FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.I WILL UPDATE RESULTS OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAYS CARD IS A GOOD ONE.

           LINE     VALUE LINE  ADDED  POINTS  ADJUSTED LINE

PHOE-3 1/2 IND      -1               PHOE +4                -5

DET TOR     DUETO BIG TRADE I WILL PASS

PHIL-2 1/2  MIA       -2MIA          0                          -2MIA

CHAR NY-4 1/2         -2          CHAR+10                 -8 CHAR

CHIC CLEVE-8         -5           CLEVE+2 CLE         -7 CLEV

S ANT -4 MIN           -4          +3 MINN                   -1 S ANT

ATL- N ORL-9           -6 1/2     +3  NORL                 -9 1/2 NORL

BOST-9 OKLA          -6 1/2      +4 OKLA                 -2 1/2 BOST

PORT UTAH -7          -6           +14 UTAH               -20 UTAH

MEMP SAC -3 1/2     -7           +7 MEMPHIS            PICK

DEN GS PASS DUE TO BIG TRADE

 LAC LAL-15             -10         +11 LAK                  -21LAK

 

 THERE ARE 5 PLAYS. IT IS A STRONG CARD

 UTAH IS +14

 CHAR +10

 OKLA+6

 LAKERS +6

 MIAMI +4 1/2

 

THE BEST TO YOU

 PROF K

 

                                         

im showing the lakers at -14, did you mistype it?

nevermind, i was confused with how you are putting down your picks.  its a little confusing but i see now.  good luck

Good work professor...

 

Hey HeaVin-Cent get ahold of me thru my space, I got something for you...

 

LOOKS LIKE I WILL HAVE A GOOD DAY.  A LITTLE BIT OF HANDICAPPING ADVISE. BET TEAMS EARLY IF THEY HAVE A WINNING RECORD PLAYING TEAMS WITH A LOSING RECORD. BET TEAMS LATE IF IN REVERSE.YESTERDAY MINN COVERD BY 1 ACCORDING TO COVERS LINE. THEY OPENED AT +4. I WAITED AND GOT THEM+4 1/2.iGOT OKLA AT A PINT BETTER ON BOSTON. MIAMI I GOT AT +3 . THEY WENT TO +3 1/2. UTAH I GOT AT -6 1/2.  THEY WENT TO -6 BUT THATIS UNUSUAL. I GOT MEMPHIS AT +3. I DID NOT WANT TO CHANCE A WORSE SPREAD. I GOT THE LAKERS AT -14 1/2. THEY WENT DOWN.SOME. AAGAIN THAT IS UNUSUAL. AT THIS POSTING I DO NOT HAVE THE RESULTS FOR THE LAST 2 PLAYS, BUT HAD A GOOD DAY SO FAR.

  TOMORROW THERE ARE LIKELY NO PLAYS. HOUSTON IS AT -5. MY LINE IS -7. THEY NEED TO GO TO-4. ALSO ORLANDO IS AT -4 1/2. MY LINE IS -7. THEY NEED TO GO TO -4 FOR IT TO BE A WEAK 3 UNIT PLAY

 ALSO WHEN I GIVE A GAME THAT I FIGURE AA BEING OFF BY OVER 10 CONSIDER THE GAME TO BE ONLY A 10 UNIT PLAY. YESTERDAY UTAH WAS 14 TO THE GOOD. IT HOWEVER WAS A 10 UNIT PLAY AND BARELY COVERED. THE COVER FINAL SPREAD FOR CHARLOTTE WAS +3. IT WAS AT LEAST +3 1.2 AT A NUMBER OF PLACES. I HIT IT AT +4.  AS I TOLD YOU MATCHBOOK HAS THE OPENING SPREAD AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT. THERE IS NO REASON TO PLAY A TEAM AT A REDUCED SPREAD.

THERE ARE FEW BOOKS THAT ARE GOOD ON HANDICAPPING. MOST BOOKS ARE ABOUT TREND BETTING OR SOME SHORT TESTED MODEL THAT DOES NOT WORK IN THE LONG TERM. ALL METHODS SHOULD HAVE A 10 YEAR TRACK RECORD AND BE BASED ON WHAT I CAL UNIVERSAL PRINCIPLES.

  AN EXAMPLE OF THIS WOULD BE THE REVENGE FACTOR. REVENGE HAS BEEN WITH US FOR A LONG TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO FOR A LONG TIME. WHAT I DID FOR THIS AND ALL OTHER FACTORS WAS TO LOOK AT ALL GAMES WHEN BOTH TEAMS WERE MEETING AGAIN WITHIN 1 YEAR. I DID THIS FOR A 5 YEAR PERIOD HICH GAVE ME A GOOD SAMPLING. I THEN STARTED APPLYING A PARTICULIAR ASPECT ON THE SAMPLE GAMES. FOR EXAMPLE I WOULSD ONLY USE TEAMS THAT WERE FAVORITES .IF THAT HAD AN EFFECT ON THE WHOLE I INCORPORATED IT. I PUT IN AS MUCH STUFF AS I COULD. IN THE CASE OF REVENGE I NOW USE ONLY A FEW RULES BECAUSE THE APPLICATION OF THOSE RULES HAVE WORKED FOR 10 YEARS OR MORE. HAVING SAID THAT I PROCEEDED TO SEE IF REVENGE IS A PRIMARY FACTOR  OR SECONDARY FACTOR WHEN HANDICAPPING. IT IS ALMOST ALWAYS A SECONDARY FACTOR. A TEAM SEEKING REVENGE IS NOT A GOOD PLAY WHEN THEY ARE SLUMPING, WHEN A LARGE % OF THE PERSONAL HAS CHANGED. , WHEN THE TEAM THEY ARE PLAYING IS HOT,AND WHEN THERE IS A CLIMATE AND OR LONG TRAVEL SITUATION. IN OTHER WORDS IT IS DEPENDENT ON OTHER ISSUES.

 I AM THINKING ABOUT HAVING A SEMINAR IN LAS VEGAS ABOUT HANDICAPPING. I MIGHT DO IT AT A COMMUNITY COLLEGE OR AT A CASINO . IF I DO SO I WILL CHARGE A FEE AND WORK WITH PEOPLE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. WHAT I DO IS REALLY  REALLY GOOD AND I CHALLENGE ANYBODY TO GO BACK OVER 10 YEARS AND FIND THIS NOT TO WORK!! ANYBODY OF AVERAGE INTELLIGENCE CAN LEARN IT.  IT ONLY TAKES DISCIPLINE AND GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT TO BE A SUCESSFUL "INVESTOR". ANYBODY VIEWING MY MATERIAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE THE MERITS OF IT. IT IS VERY LOGICAL AND TAKES ALL EMOTION OUT OF PROGNOSTICATING A GAME. HAVING SAID THAT THERE IS A DANGER EXPOSING THIS TO THE PUBLIC. LINE MAKERS ADJUST AND INCORPORATE NEW INFORMATION INTO THEIR COMPUTER IN INFORMATION.I NEED TO THINK ABOUT WHAT I WANT TO DO. I DO LOVE TO TEACH AND WOULD LOVE TO DO A SEMINAR.

  PROF K

  I HAVE NOT HAD A 0-3 DAY. I HAD A 1-2 DAY. I ALSO POSTED AN APOLOGY TO ANYBODY VIEWING MY PLAYS THAT I HANDICAPPED  THE SACREMENTO GAME LATE AT NIGHT. I DID NOT NOTICE THAT THE PREVIOUS GAME PLAYED WAS NOT LISTED FOR SACR. IT WENT FROM  A PLAY FOR TO A PLAY AGAINST. SACR WAS ON WHAT I CALL THE COLD TEAM LIST. TEAMS GO THRU MINI STREAKS AND THAT IS WHEN YOU WANT TO CATCH THEM. I TOLD EVERYONE NOT TO  PLAY ANY OF MY PICKS BUT OBSERVE. I NEED A TRACK RECORD. I NEEDED TO GET THE KINKS OUT OM PICKS BECAUSE THE POINT SPREADS LISTED ARE IMPORTANT TO DETERMINING A PLAY AND AT WHAT VALUE.  ALSO I HAVE CHANGED THE FORMAT . MY PLAYS WILL BE EASIER TO VIEW. I WILL NOT BE DOING ANY HANDICAPPING AT 2 IN THE MORNING AS I WAS DOING.

 IF YOU FOLLOWED MY PLAYS YESTERDAY AND REACTED ACCORDING TO HOW I SUGGESTED, YOU WOULD HAVE SEEN A GOOD DAY.  BECAUSE HANDICAPPING IS A NEVER ENDING LEARNING PROCESS I HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN ABLE TO DELETE SOME PLAYS THAT HAVE BEEN LOSERS AS A WHOLE IN THE PAST.  I WILL NOT BE PLAYING TEAMS THAT WIN 1/3 OF THEIR GAMES OR LESS THAT TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES UNLESS THE SPREAD IS IN THE  DOUBLE FIGURES AND EVEN THEN I WILL ADD 2 OR 3 MORE POINTS TO MY VALUE SPREAD. HOPEFULY YOU DID NOT PLAY SACR. I NEVER NEVER WOULD PLAY ON A TEAM THAT LOST 2 GAMES IN A ROW BY 10 OR MORE TO THE POINT SPREAD, ESPECIALLY PLAYING BACK TO BACK GAMES. IN FACT THAT IS A POWERFUL  TOOL TO USE TO PLAY THE OTHER SIDE.

Do you have any plays for tonight?

FRIDAY PLAYS

                     LINE     VALUE LINE

DETROIT        PICK         -15   DETROIT IS STRONG  10 UNIT

 UTAH            -11 1/2     - 16 1/2   UTAH                     5UNITS

 SACR           -4            -8                                          4 UNITS

 GD ST          -6 1/2      -14 1/2                                   8 UNITS

 HOUS           -6 1/2     -10 1/2                                    4UNITS

 

 THERE ARE 4 FAVORITES TODAY. I USUALLY COME UP WITH  DOGS. SINCE WHAT I DO IS MECHANICAL I GET WHAT I GET. MY TIME IS VALUABLE SO I AM POSTING ONLY PLAYS THAT QUALIFY AS OF  OF OPENING LINE.. I WOULD TELL MY CLIENTS TO ACT ON THESE GAME ASAP. SPREADS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THE WRONG WAY.

How much of your bank roll is 1 unit? Percentage wise of course..

Thanks prof!! Good luck!