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NBA Over/Under streaks (backtesting)

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Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 108
Posted: #1
Tested 2010/11 season for results following a 4,5,6 and 7 game over/under streak. In this test we bet against the streak, results as follows:

4 game streak, teams went 78-77 betting to snap the streak.
5 game streak, teams went 36-39 betting to snap the streak.
6 game streak, teams went 15-22 betting to snap the streak.
7 game streak, teams went 15-7 betting to snap the streak.

Obviously the value is betting a team against their streak following a 7 game over/under streak. Has anyone back tested any similar strategies? I will also test the 2009/10 season unless someone has already done so.


 
Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 108
Posted: #2
For 2010/11 season if you bet against the streak after 6 games:
15-22 
+$15 & -$24.20 

betting 2 units on on the 7th game:

15-7
+$30 & -$15.40

End of the season at +5.40, taking the 6th game and doubling up on the 7th.

If we just go against the 7th game @$1 we finish with +7.30

Im in the process of backtesting 2009/10.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 108
Posted: #3
2009/10 results:

Against the streak after 6 games: 24-10
Against the streak after 7 games: 4-6

Return is +7.8 units for the 09/10 season.

In the process of back testing 2008/9 season.
 
Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 108
Posted: #4
2008/09 results:

Against the streak after 6 games 16-16
Against the streak after 7 games 8-9

Return is -2 units for the 08/09 season.


 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 253
Posted: #5
you'll probably do better if you bet WITH the streak instead of trying to break the momentum. Finding the right streak can do wonders for your roll
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