I'm working on a nba chase 2 game system and need advice on how to go about filtering out bad teams. without filters it still comes in at about 80 to 85% win rate on 60 to 70 games a year but I notice most of the losses come with the same team. if anyone has any suggestions please post them.
thx in advance
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm working on a nba chase 2 game system and need advice on how to go about filtering out bad teams. without filters it still comes in at about 80 to 85% win rate on 60 to 70 games a year but I notice most of the losses come with the same team. if anyone has any suggestions please post them.
IF you can actually hit 80 - 85% of the time, over time, you don't need filters.
On the contrary.. if you're playing a Chase style, I would say 80-85% is not nearly a high enough win %.
I haven't done any research on NBA Systems yet, but for myself personally, I would think I would have to know exactly how u have things set up all ready, before looking at how to apply filters to it.
If you want to talk via pm rather than discussing your work here, I am always able to be reached.
Cheers
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Quote Originally Posted by Beye:
IF you can actually hit 80 - 85% of the time, over time, you don't need filters.
On the contrary.. if you're playing a Chase style, I would say 80-85% is not nearly a high enough win %.
I haven't done any research on NBA Systems yet, but for myself personally, I would think I would have to know exactly how u have things set up all ready, before looking at how to apply filters to it.
If you want to talk via pm rather than discussing your work here, I am always able to be reached.
On the contrary.. if you're playing a Chase style, I would say 80-85% is not nearly a high enough win %.
I haven't done any research on NBA Systems yet, but for myself personally, I would think I would have to know exactly how u have things set up all ready, before looking at how to apply filters to it.
If you want to talk via pm rather than discussing your work here, I am always able to be reached.
Cheers
I think you may have overlooked the fact that he is playing a 2 game chase, and not a 3-4game.
In a 2 game chase assuming a -110 line:
At 80% per 100 series. +80u (80wins) -20*3.41u (20 losses at -3.41u each) ------- +11.8u per 100 series' bet. (+0.118u per series profit)
At 85% per 100 series' +85u (85wins) -15*3.41u (15 losses at -3.41u each) ------- +33.85u per 100 series' bet. (Or a whopping 0.3385u per series.)
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Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:
On the contrary.. if you're playing a Chase style, I would say 80-85% is not nearly a high enough win %.
I haven't done any research on NBA Systems yet, but for myself personally, I would think I would have to know exactly how u have things set up all ready, before looking at how to apply filters to it.
If you want to talk via pm rather than discussing your work here, I am always able to be reached.
Cheers
I think you may have overlooked the fact that he is playing a 2 game chase, and not a 3-4game.
In a 2 game chase assuming a -110 line:
At 80% per 100 series. +80u (80wins) -20*3.41u (20 losses at -3.41u each) ------- +11.8u per 100 series' bet. (+0.118u per series profit)
At 85% per 100 series' +85u (85wins) -15*3.41u (15 losses at -3.41u each) ------- +33.85u per 100 series' bet. (Or a whopping 0.3385u per series.)
Tell us the system and then we may be able to help, I assure you, most likely we will not be suprised . So spit it out, and we can throw an angle your way,
tater
Quote Originally Posted by jv040:
I'm working on a nba chase 2 game system and need advice on how to go about filtering out bad teams. without filters it still comes in at about 80 to 85% win rate on 60 to 70 games a year but I notice most of the losses come with the same team. if anyone has any suggestions please post them.
thx in advance
0
Tell us the system and then we may be able to help, I assure you, most likely we will not be suprised . So spit it out, and we can throw an angle your way,
tater
Quote Originally Posted by jv040:
I'm working on a nba chase 2 game system and need advice on how to go about filtering out bad teams. without filters it still comes in at about 80 to 85% win rate on 60 to 70 games a year but I notice most of the losses come with the same team. if anyone has any suggestions please post them.
bet on a home team in the first two home games the team must be coming off a road game where they did not cover point spread. Road game must be 2 games or more and home team must be two games or more. Makes no difference if teams are playing east or west teams at home.
2006-2007 east 34 – 11 75% wins
west 27-6 81% wins
both 67 – 17 79% wins
2007-2008 east 30-7 81% wins
west 39-6 86% wins
both 69-13 84% wins
2008-2009 east 20-2 90% wins
west 40-13 75% wins
both 66 wins 15 losses 81%
I came up with a different version too only bet on teams if west is playing west teams or if east is playing east otherwise same rules as above apply. Here are the results. The results are higher percentage of wins but fewer games to bet on. I'm not sure if that makes it better or not.
East 2006-2007 13-3 81% wins
west 10 games 2 losses 83% wins
both 23 wins 5 losses 82% wins
east 2007-2008 14 -1 93%
west 15-2 89%
both 29-3 90%
east 2008-2009 9-0 100%
west 16-4 80%
both 25-4 86%
the problem I'm running into on my first version is that every year there seems to be one or two teams that loose almost every game that qualify's. I just learning how to cap my my own stuff and not very good at finding filters yet.
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Nba 2 game chase system 2009
bet on a home team in the first two home games the team must be coming off a road game where they did not cover point spread. Road game must be 2 games or more and home team must be two games or more. Makes no difference if teams are playing east or west teams at home.
2006-2007 east 34 – 11 75% wins
west 27-6 81% wins
both 67 – 17 79% wins
2007-2008 east 30-7 81% wins
west 39-6 86% wins
both 69-13 84% wins
2008-2009 east 20-2 90% wins
west 40-13 75% wins
both 66 wins 15 losses 81%
I came up with a different version too only bet on teams if west is playing west teams or if east is playing east otherwise same rules as above apply. Here are the results. The results are higher percentage of wins but fewer games to bet on. I'm not sure if that makes it better or not.
East 2006-2007 13-3 81% wins
west 10 games 2 losses 83% wins
both 23 wins 5 losses 82% wins
east 2007-2008 14 -1 93%
west 15-2 89%
both 29-3 90%
east 2008-2009 9-0 100%
west 16-4 80%
both 25-4 86%
the problem I'm running into on my first version is that every year there seems to be one or two teams that loose almost every game that qualify's. I just learning how to cap my my own stuff and not very good at finding filters yet.
what are the records for a 3 game chase straight ATS? or what would the records be with buying 2 to 3 pts. for a 2 game chase. maybe try filtering out home teams below a certain home winning pct. ( below .500 for example) and filtering out road teams with a high road win pct. (maybe .500 or better)
You'll have to just try a few different filters on it and hopefully you won't eliminate too many games!
Sounds like a good system, just needs a little fine tuning.
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what are the records for a 3 game chase straight ATS? or what would the records be with buying 2 to 3 pts. for a 2 game chase. maybe try filtering out home teams below a certain home winning pct. ( below .500 for example) and filtering out road teams with a high road win pct. (maybe .500 or better)
You'll have to just try a few different filters on it and hopefully you won't eliminate too many games!
Sounds like a good system, just needs a little fine tuning.
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