Posted:
#1
After coming up with many ideas for possible systems and backtesting them all several years I came up with a few "hits" that seem to pull in a decent profit every year. I will share one of them. Was 66% last season. You typically get 30-35 plays per year from the system. Wait a few weeks into the year to give the stats a chance to balance out. Then bet AGAINST any team getting 20 or more points who's DEFENSE averages over 5 yards per carry. The concept was that games with large spreads like that are typically blowouts, thus the favorite spends most of the second half rushing the ball to waste clock. Average per carry seemed like a far more accurate way of finding bad run defenses than total yards or avg yards per game which have too many coincidental and situational variables. Also, grab them as soon as the lines come out. These big favorite type of lines typically go up a couple points during the week from the opening line.
0
Hot Forum Topics
