Money Management Advice/Ideas/Input Needed for Chase System

Hi all,

I’m looking for the safest and most profitable money management strategy to use with an O/U Chase System (based on Neilsy25 Chase  the Under for 4 games after 3 Straight Overs) with the following worst case scenario (based on 5 year back test for the NHL).  Odds range from -140 to +140.

Chase Breakdown

1 Game Chase = 61 wins (47.29% of total wins)

2 Game Chase = 41 wins (31.78%)

3 Game Chase = 18 wins (13.95%)

4 Game Chase = 9 wins (6.98%)

5 Game Chase = 6 wins (4.65%)

6 Game Chase = 2 wins (1.55%)

7 Game Chase = 1 win (0.78%)

8 Game Chase =  2 wins (1.55%)

Overall Record: 140-0 based on 8 game chase

Overall Record after 4 Game Chase = 129-11

Overall Record after 5 Game Chase = 135-5

Overall Record after 6 Game Chase = 137-3

Overall Record after 7 Game Chase =  138-2

Overall Record after 8 Game Chase = 140-0

Again I’m looking for something to capitalize on these type of results.  I believe there is money to be made just looking for opinions.  There are some very dialed in people in this forum and I hope to get some input based on experience.

It would be great to get something solid so we can all profit.

Maybe try a 4 line aggressive labby.  Make your game 5 plays back on line 1.  To play martingale would have making extremely large wagers although you could try it with a grand martingale system like supereagle uses but if you lose you are wiped out.

onlinesport:

how many lines would you recommend? How would you break it down to achieve the most profit?

Thanks for your input

the rizz:

what do you mean by a 4 line agressive labby?  I like the idea of putting the game 5's back on line one.  I thought about the grand Martingale (mrmartingale) seemed to be quite profitable but of course the risk get's much higher, more so than on a chase.  I did some tests comparing the mrmartingale system, the grand martingale system and a chase to win 1 unit.  The chase actually was the least risky.  At the deepest chase which is game 8 the risk for mr.martingale was 180.11 Units, grand martingale was 255 Units and the Chase was 113.56 Units.

After the 8 game chases the Mr martingale profited 17.29 Units.  The grand martingale profited 8 units and of course the Chase profited 1 unit.

For me keeping risk down is number 1.  I want to protect my bankroll first and formost.  I also have to keep in mind that several chases could be going on at the same time therefore I need to plan for the worst case scenario based on the backtesting and then add some insurance onto that.

Sorry I'm rambling here.  If you could elaborate a bit on your idea I'd appreciate it.

Thanks for your input.

1958a

I understand what your saying and it's interesting.  What is the most units you've had to risk? and how many units have you profited?  How many chases have you had running at the same time?

Thanks for your input

standard labouchere means you would put your loss at the end of the line.  With aggressive labby I simply add half of the loss at the end of line 1 and half at the end of line 2, instead of adding numbers.  The more numbers you add the more wins you will need to clear lines and turn profit.  Your line by line win percentage is not going to be over 50% for many lines based on the game by game wins you posted.

Example,  labby lines

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

Using standard labby, you lose game 1 and lets say 12 because of juice so you add 12 at the end of line 1 or split it and add to the end of the line

5-5-5-5-12

or

5-5-5-5-6

5-5-5-5-6

With the aggressive labby add 6 onto the last number in line 1 and 2

5-5-5-11

5-5-5-11

so you play your next game to win 16, you would also play your next game 1 to win 16.  When you win cross off your wins first then add your losses, don't just subtract your net profit.  You may want to check out my thread.  I do this every day.  The lines are listed at the bottom of my posts you can see the + and - for the day and how I keep track of the lines.

Good luck

rizz

with the agressive labby as shown above

5-5-5-11

If there are say 4 qualifying line 1 plays would you play all 4 to win 16?  Then subtract the wins from line 1 and split the losses between lines 1 and 2?  I would guess this is the part of the system than can increase your profit. Becasue instead of playing 4 games to win 10 we'd be playing 4 to win 16 and we'd be capitalizing on the higher winning percentage of our games 1 and 2.

I like the sounds of this, however plays could still get pricey but the lines could always be adjusted if things start to get out of hand.  The key here is too start with very censervative lines.

Thanks again

Nice job on your thread keep the units rollin!

Yes, if I have multiple plays on the same line I play them all on the last numbers.  Just think of these lines as your accounting department.  If the number at the end of the lines get too large you can either split them or spread it out amongst the 4 lines.  It may take you longer to cross the line out but you are also decresing your risk.

This system sounds interesting! what is ur record this year?

I believe a chase system can be profitable when utilized correctly  to maximize your win % along with proper money management.  You have to know when to accept your losses and not chase forever.

Any aggressive labby as rizz speaks of can be profitable.

No Laby line will work with long-term success with the above system.

You have no shot at all. 1st off an 8 game chase is a waste of time to begin with and with any type of chase system A Labby will only protect you so much ?

To this day it really makes me wonder how so many blokes think that playing any type of chase a Labby with save them ??

BK

If your Hit rate isnt at least 60 % + Out of the gate with gm 1, any chase You are Dead man Walking

BK

BK

The fact that over 79% of the wins come at game 1 or 2 should be to our advantage.  If we use a 4 line aggressive labby we will be capitalizing on the most profitable part of the system. I will not be chasing to 8 games. Probably to 6.  The game 5 and 6 losses will be spread out over games 1 and 2 where the system is most profitable and giving us the best chance of recovery.

How would you recommend managing the money on something with these type of results?

Thanks for the input.

At a 79 % Hit rate that is much better within the 1st 2 games, I would reccomend a 2 line labby with those hit rates. 4 line labby with strech you at so far and recouping on lines 3 - 6 you would be streched out a bit.

2 line labby and break into halves with loses and or carry a full lose on line 1 due to the fact that over time Line 1 will clear much quicker then 2.

That would be a good start and then you can adjust as you go.

BK