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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    MLB Runs Scored/Runs Against

    123 Next Last»
    BuckeyeKaptn
    sports_Network
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    123 Next Last»
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2018 - 11:30 PM ET #1

    This is based on the NHL GSGA (Goals Scored Goals Against) system that I posted this past season.

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=102543013&page=2\

    Start on post #38 to understand how I came up with the equations.

    Unlike GSGA, I made a simple spreadsheet, to give to everyone that follows, easier than posting everyday.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Pbn0Fp3YK8jzsjxbTnWZGofUuQHCmsdf/view?usp=sharing

    I won't be using it, as this is a small part of my personal spreadsheet.  If there is a problem, or you have questions, I will handle it in this thread.

    My power rankings thread will be coming soon.

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    This is based on the NHL GSGA (Goals Scored Goals Against) system that I posted this past season.

    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=102543013&page=2\

    Start on post #38 to understand how I came up with the equations.

    Unlike GSGA, I made a simple spreadsheet, to give to everyone that follows, easier than posting everyday.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Pbn0Fp3YK8jzsjxbTnWZGofUuQHCmsdf/view?usp=sharing

    I won't be using it, as this is a small part of my personal spreadsheet.  If there is a problem, or you have questions, I will handle it in this thread.

    My power rankings thread will be coming soon.

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Apr. 13, 2018 - 11:35 PM ET #2

    I forgot to add, I made this with the newest Excel (2016), if it matters.

    You cannot use Google Sheets to update it, you need Excel, and it needs to be downloaded for use. 
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    I forgot to add, I made this with the newest Excel (2016), if it matters.

    You cannot use Google Sheets to update it, you need Excel, and it needs to be downloaded for use. 
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2018 - 6:45 AM ET #3

    I'll try and remember to post the stats every day off....every 8 days or so.

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 26 - 20 $3.05 21 - 25 $3.46 

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    I'll try and remember to post the stats every day off....every 8 days or so.

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 26 - 20 $3.05 21 - 25 $3.46 

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2018 - 6:46 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

    I'll try and remember to post the stats every day off....every 8 days or so.

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 26 - 20 $3.05 21 - 25 $3.46 

    Starting April 16th.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

    I'll try and remember to post the stats every day off....every 8 days or so.

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 26 - 20 $3.05 21 - 25 $3.46 

    Starting April 16th.
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: Apr. 20, 2018 - 7:32 AM ET #5

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    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Apr. 24, 2018 - 7:08 AM ET #6

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$

    RSRA 60 - 39 $16.43 46 - 53 $11.44 

     

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    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$

    RSRA 60 - 39 $16.43 46 - 53 $11.44 

     

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Apr. 27, 2018 - 7:08 AM ET #7

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 81 - 56 $15.65 56 - 81 ($3.20)

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    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 81 - 56 $15.65 56 - 81 ($3.20)

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Apr. 29, 2018 - 8:29 AM ET #8

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 92 - 75 $2.12 62 - 105 ($19.06)

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    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 92 - 75 $2.12 62 - 105 ($19.06)

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 1, 2018 - 10:10 AM ET #9

    End of Month:

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 107 - 86 $5.20 71 - 122 ($22.52)

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    End of Month:

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 107 - 86 $5.20 71 - 122 ($22.52)

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 6, 2018 - 10:06 AM ET #10

    RL Record/$$$ is second set of numbers

    Playing all
    RSRA 150 - 113 $17.67 100 - 163 $(20.83)

    Current Month:
    Playing all
    RSRA 43 - 27 $12.37 29 - 41 $1.69 

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    RL Record/$$$ is second set of numbers

    Playing all
    RSRA 150 - 113 $17.67 100 - 163 $(20.83)

    Current Month:
    Playing all
    RSRA 43 - 27 $12.37 29 - 41 $1.69 

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 13, 2018 - 8:27 AM ET #11

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 201 - 151 $19.75 135 - 217 ($29.73)

    --------------------------May---------------------------------
    94 - 65 $14.45 64 - 95 $(7.21)

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    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 201 - 151 $19.75 135 - 217 ($29.73)

    --------------------------May---------------------------------
    94 - 65 $14.45 64 - 95 $(7.21)

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 31, 2018 - 7:07 AM ET #12

    Since May 21st:

    Playing all

    RSRA70 - 67 $(13.94)

    Run Line or Alt Run Line    49 - 88 $(25.08)

     

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    Since May 21st:

    Playing all

    RSRA70 - 67 $(13.94)

    Run Line or Alt Run Line    49 - 88 $(25.08)

     

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 2, 2018 - 10:06 PM ET #13

    Month of May since May 21st:

    ML: 75 - 72 $(15.52)
    RL: 53 - 94 $(26.34)

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    Month of May since May 21st:

    ML: 75 - 72 $(15.52)
    RL: 53 - 94 $(26.34)

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2018 - 9:36 AM ET #14

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 195 - 147 $3.37 145 - 197 ($6.15)

    --------------------------June---------------------------------
    120 - 75 $18.89 92 - 103 $20.19 

    As a 3g chase:
    A: 70 - 33 $28.53 B: 23 - 9 $32.99 C: 4 - 5 $0.63 

    --------------------------June---------------------------------
    A: 39 - 16 $16.61 B: 10 - 5 $11.03 C: 3 - 2 $11.13 

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    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 195 - 147 $3.37 145 - 197 ($6.15)

    --------------------------June---------------------------------
    120 - 75 $18.89 92 - 103 $20.19 

    As a 3g chase:
    A: 70 - 33 $28.53 B: 23 - 9 $32.99 C: 4 - 5 $0.63 

    --------------------------June---------------------------------
    A: 39 - 16 $16.61 B: 10 - 5 $11.03 C: 3 - 2 $11.13 

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2018 - 8:13 AM ET #15

    New parlay Chase based on these rankings. 

    I'm going back to May 21st and looking at possible parlays. Using the teams on the A game of a series, having at least 6 games being played, parlaying the top money line odds (top favorites), and seeing how that fares. 
    The Chase would be if a parlay lost you would wait until the next set of A games for the next play...not playing the same 2 teams again the next day. 
    So far every parlay has hit for 4 straight parlays...including run lines. Unfortunately I'm at work so I'll get the rest updated hopefully tonight. 
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    New parlay Chase based on these rankings. 

    I'm going back to May 21st and looking at possible parlays. Using the teams on the A game of a series, having at least 6 games being played, parlaying the top money line odds (top favorites), and seeing how that fares. 
    The Chase would be if a parlay lost you would wait until the next set of A games for the next play...not playing the same 2 teams again the next day. 
    So far every parlay has hit for 4 straight parlays...including run lines. Unfortunately I'm at work so I'll get the rest updated hopefully tonight. 
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2018 - 9:51 AM ET #16

    I'll post what has been the plays since May 21st. Covers lines will be there determine factor was to which teams are part of the parlay. 
    I'll will be using covers parlay calculator to determine the take home winnings. I'll be using scores and odds for the run line odds. 
    If there are any rain outs, I will determine if the rained out team had high enough odds to be part of the parlay. If it is and the other team won, I will treat that play as a single game win as that is what would happen in real life. 
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    I'll post what has been the plays since May 21st. Covers lines will be there determine factor was to which teams are part of the parlay. 
    I'll will be using covers parlay calculator to determine the take home winnings. I'll be using scores and odds for the run line odds. 
    If there are any rain outs, I will determine if the rained out team had high enough odds to be part of the parlay. If it is and the other team won, I will treat that play as a single game win as that is what would happen in real life. 
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2018 - 7:50 PM ET #17

    5/21 Nyy/Min
    W ML 1.17 W RL 2.34

    5/22 Bos/Hou
    W ML 1.02 W RL 2.04
    Total ML 2.19 RL 4.38

    5/25 Chc/Was
    W ML 0.99 W RL 2.08
    Total ML 3.18 RL 6.46

    5/28 Cle/Laa
    L ML -1.00 L RL -1.00
    Total ML 2.18 RL 5.46

    5/31 Nyy/Hou (Nyy was a rain out, now a single play for Hou)
    W ML 2.00 W RL 2.00
    Total ML 4.18 RL 7.46
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    5/21 Nyy/Min
    W ML 1.17 W RL 2.34

    5/22 Bos/Hou
    W ML 1.02 W RL 2.04
    Total ML 2.19 RL 4.38

    5/25 Chc/Was
    W ML 0.99 W RL 2.08
    Total ML 3.18 RL 6.46

    5/28 Cle/Laa
    L ML -1.00 L RL -1.00
    Total ML 2.18 RL 5.46

    5/31 Nyy/Hou (Nyy was a rain out, now a single play for Hou)
    W ML 2.00 W RL 2.00
    Total ML 4.18 RL 7.46
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2018 - 7:59 PM ET #18

    6/1 Nyy/Mil
    L ML -1.00 L RL -1.00
    Total ML 3.18 RL 6.46

    6/5 Chc/Was
    L ML -2.00 L RL -2.00
    Total ML 1.18 RL 4.46

    6/8 Was/Bos
    L ML -4.00 L RL -4.00
    Total ML -2.82 RL 0.46

    6/11 Cle/Stl
    W ML 10.24 W RL 21.12
    Total ML 7.42 RL 21.58

    6/15 Hou/Lad
    W ML 1.04 L RL -1.00
    Total ML 8.46 RL 20.58

    6/18 Cle/Hou
    W ML 0.89 L RL -2.00
    Total ML 9.35 RL 18.58
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    6/1 Nyy/Mil
    L ML -1.00 L RL -1.00
    Total ML 3.18 RL 6.46

    6/5 Chc/Was
    L ML -2.00 L RL -2.00
    Total ML 1.18 RL 4.46

    6/8 Was/Bos
    L ML -4.00 L RL -4.00
    Total ML -2.82 RL 0.46

    6/11 Cle/Stl
    W ML 10.24 W RL 21.12
    Total ML 7.42 RL 21.58

    6/15 Hou/Lad
    W ML 1.04 L RL -1.00
    Total ML 8.46 RL 20.58

    6/18 Cle/Hou
    W ML 0.89 L RL -2.00
    Total ML 9.35 RL 18.58
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2018 - 8:00 PM ET #19

    Meh

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    Meh

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2018 - 10:06 PM ET #20

    Forgot yesterdays

    6/19 Nyy/Bost

    L ML -1.00 L RL -4.00

    Total ML 8.35 RL 14.58

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    Forgot yesterdays

    6/19 Nyy/Bost

    L ML -1.00 L RL -4.00

    Total ML 8.35 RL 14.58

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2018 - 6:34 AM ET #21

    6/22 Chc/Sf

    L ML -2.00 L RL -8.00

    Total ML 6.35 RL 6.58

    Personally, I had Laa instead of SF at the time I made my wagers.  As far as chasing the RL, I think 4 games is chase enough...I'll start at 1 unit again for A games today.

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    6/22 Chc/Sf

    L ML -2.00 L RL -8.00

    Total ML 6.35 RL 6.58

    Personally, I had Laa instead of SF at the time I made my wagers.  As far as chasing the RL, I think 4 games is chase enough...I'll start at 1 unit again for A games today.

     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2018 - 4:17 PM ET #22

    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 303 - 241 ($14.27) 224 - 320 ($27.35)

    --------------------------June---------------------------------
    228 - 169 $1.25 171 - 226 $(1.01)

    As a 3g chase:

    RSRA 104 - 55 $30.23 30 - 25 $0.31 12 - 9 $18.58 

    --------------------------June---------------------------------
    72 - 37 $18.31 17 - 20 $(18.24) 10 - 6 $23.68 

    There is still 4 C bets out there, with one winner (NYM).  The other 3 (Ari, Lad, Cle) just started.
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    System ML W/L ML $$$ RL W/L RL $$$
    RSRA 303 - 241 ($14.27) 224 - 320 ($27.35)

    --------------------------June---------------------------------
    228 - 169 $1.25 171 - 226 $(1.01)

    As a 3g chase:

    RSRA 104 - 55 $30.23 30 - 25 $0.31 12 - 9 $18.58 

    --------------------------June---------------------------------
    72 - 37 $18.31 17 - 20 $(18.24) 10 - 6 $23.68 

    There is still 4 C bets out there, with one winner (NYM).  The other 3 (Ari, Lad, Cle) just started.
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2018 - 4:22 PM ET #23

    I'll post the Parlay chase results shortly. I'm going to adjust the plays to 1-8 parlay system by Tony Stoffo.


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    I'll post the Parlay chase results shortly. I'm going to adjust the plays to 1-8 parlay system by Tony Stoffo.


     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2018 - 7:07 PM ET #24

    6/25 Hou/Atl: Loss (-5.00)

    6/29 Tor/Sea ML Win (9.84) RL Loss (-18.00)**

    YTD: ML +5.35 RL (-34.34)

    **RL play is on the 25X step.

    The money management system is:

    X (your unit), 2X, 3X, 5X, 8X, 12X, 18X, 25X
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    6/25 Hou/Atl: Loss (-5.00)

    6/29 Tor/Sea ML Win (9.84) RL Loss (-18.00)**

    YTD: ML +5.35 RL (-34.34)

    **RL play is on the 25X step.

    The money management system is:

    X (your unit), 2X, 3X, 5X, 8X, 12X, 18X, 25X
     
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: Jul. 1, 2018 - 10:13 PM ET #25

    Cause I was bored while my wife was watching TV (Law and Order: SVU...again), I was looking at different system types.  

    One that I came up with was a daily parlay using the top 2 teams with the highest RSRA of the day.  If you have the spreadsheet on this thread, you would know that today's parlay would be LAA 2.315 and TEX 1.814...which both lost btw.

    Using the same X (your unit), 2X, 3X, 5X, 8X, 12X, 18X, 25X as the above parlay chase and using the daily numbers from May 21st, with at least 5 games played that day, here's the stats using $1.00 as one unit.

    Money Line to June 30th:
    15 wins and 25 losses (play currently 3X for today's play)
    Winnings: $28.96

    Run Line/ARL to June 30th:
    11 wins and 29 losses (play currently 8X for today's play)
    Winnings: $109.46

    ML: Has hit 8X 3 times so far, none higher.
    RL: Has hit 18X once, 12X twice, and 8X four times.

    With LAA and TEX both losing today, ML will be at 5X and RL will be at 12X.
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    Cause I was bored while my wife was watching TV (Law and Order: SVU...again), I was looking at different system types.  

    One that I came up with was a daily parlay using the top 2 teams with the highest RSRA of the day.  If you have the spreadsheet on this thread, you would know that today's parlay would be LAA 2.315 and TEX 1.814...which both lost btw.

    Using the same X (your unit), 2X, 3X, 5X, 8X, 12X, 18X, 25X as the above parlay chase and using the daily numbers from May 21st, with at least 5 games played that day, here's the stats using $1.00 as one unit.

    Money Line to June 30th:
    15 wins and 25 losses (play currently 3X for today's play)
    Winnings: $28.96

    Run Line/ARL to June 30th:
    11 wins and 29 losses (play currently 8X for today's play)
    Winnings: $109.46

    ML: Has hit 8X 3 times so far, none higher.
    RL: Has hit 18X once, 12X twice, and 8X four times.

    With LAA and TEX both losing today, ML will be at 5X and RL will be at 12X.
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