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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    MLB :Return of the simple 4x4 and his humble brother 5x4

    hrabri_pero
    PatrickBateman
    LSU2thBone
    sports_Network
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    hrabri_pero
    hrabri_pero
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    Posted: Mar. 30, 2012 - 8:40 AM ET #1

    Hello!
    Here we go again... the simplest system ever
    uses only wins total of teams last 10 games.

    4x4:
    play home team if in last ten has more than 4 wins and visiting team won less than 4 games in their last 10 played

    5x4:
    same as above. replace first 4 with 5... more than 5 wins in last 10 games, visitor less than 4

    during last 12 seasons 4x4 wasn't profitable in seasons '02,'03 and '09, 5x4 only in '02. lines are from covers.com 


    explanation of data:
    season
    system: profit (100$ bets); games played; profit per game played; percentage of wins; Max profit at any point during whole season; Min profit at any point

     2000 
    4x4: 1518; 324; 4,69; 60,19%; 1518; -709
    5x4: 667; 242; 2,76; 59,92%; 667; -965

     2001 
    4x4: 2705; 307; 8,81; 62,54%; 3390; -1425
    5x4: 535; 207; 2,58; 61,35%; 1115; -1475

     2002 
    4x4: -4130; 287; -14,39; 55,05%; 575; -5185
    5x4: -1560; 181; -8,62; 58,01%; 240; -2975

     2003 
    4x4: -1470; 289; -5,09; 59,17%; 365; -3130
    5x4: 1135; 195; 5,82; 63,59%; 1155; -1845

     2004 
    4x4: 3525; 263; 13,40; 65,02%; 3880; -330
    5x4: 3670; 184; 19,95; 67,39%; 4025; -245

     2005 
    4x4: 178; 233; 0,76; 56,22%; 2220; -1462
    5x4: 1373; 151; 9,09; 58,94%; 1770; -290

     2006 
    4x4: 1125; 304; 3,70; 61,18%; 2550; -870
    5x4: 3455; 198; 17,45; 66,16%; 4105; -80

     2007 
    4x4: 1155; 262; 4,41; 60,69%; 1555; -1585
    5x4: 370; 182; 2,03; 60,99%; 830; -1565

     2008 
    4x4: 4095; 284; 14,42; 64,44%; 4145; -160
    5x4: 2950; 182; 16,21; 66,48%; 2950; -365

     2009 
    4x4: -445; 293; -1,52; 60,07%; 1190; -1705
    5x4: 670; 198; 3,38; 61,11%; 1405; -900

     2010 
    4x4: 416; 248; 1,68; 60,48%; 1197; -1230
    5x4: 1196; 177; 6,76; 63,28%; 1941; -282

     2011 
    4x4: 3298; 300; 10,99; 62,33%; 3429; -1087
    5x4: 2710; 199; 13,62; 63,82%; 2710; -176

    it isn't big moneymaker every time, but could net you 30 units on a good year. and risk isn't that big.

    i'll be using 5x4 this year. 


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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Hello!
    Here we go again... the simplest system ever
    uses only wins total of teams last 10 games.

    4x4:
    play home team if in last ten has more than 4 wins and visiting team won less than 4 games in their last 10 played

    5x4:
    same as above. replace first 4 with 5... more than 5 wins in last 10 games, visitor less than 4

    during last 12 seasons 4x4 wasn't profitable in seasons '02,'03 and '09, 5x4 only in '02. lines are from covers.com 


    explanation of data:
    season
    system: profit (100$ bets); games played; profit per game played; percentage of wins; Max profit at any point during whole season; Min profit at any point

     2000 
    4x4: 1518; 324; 4,69; 60,19%; 1518; -709
    5x4: 667; 242; 2,76; 59,92%; 667; -965

     2001 
    4x4: 2705; 307; 8,81; 62,54%; 3390; -1425
    5x4: 535; 207; 2,58; 61,35%; 1115; -1475

     2002 
    4x4: -4130; 287; -14,39; 55,05%; 575; -5185
    5x4: -1560; 181; -8,62; 58,01%; 240; -2975

     2003 
    4x4: -1470; 289; -5,09; 59,17%; 365; -3130
    5x4: 1135; 195; 5,82; 63,59%; 1155; -1845

     2004 
    4x4: 3525; 263; 13,40; 65,02%; 3880; -330
    5x4: 3670; 184; 19,95; 67,39%; 4025; -245

     2005 
    4x4: 178; 233; 0,76; 56,22%; 2220; -1462
    5x4: 1373; 151; 9,09; 58,94%; 1770; -290

     2006 
    4x4: 1125; 304; 3,70; 61,18%; 2550; -870
    5x4: 3455; 198; 17,45; 66,16%; 4105; -80

     2007 
    4x4: 1155; 262; 4,41; 60,69%; 1555; -1585
    5x4: 370; 182; 2,03; 60,99%; 830; -1565

     2008 
    4x4: 4095; 284; 14,42; 64,44%; 4145; -160
    5x4: 2950; 182; 16,21; 66,48%; 2950; -365

     2009 
    4x4: -445; 293; -1,52; 60,07%; 1190; -1705
    5x4: 670; 198; 3,38; 61,11%; 1405; -900

     2010 
    4x4: 416; 248; 1,68; 60,48%; 1197; -1230
    5x4: 1196; 177; 6,76; 63,28%; 1941; -282

     2011 
    4x4: 3298; 300; 10,99; 62,33%; 3429; -1087
    5x4: 2710; 199; 13,62; 63,82%; 2710; -176

    it isn't big moneymaker every time, but could net you 30 units on a good year. and risk isn't that big.

    i'll be using 5x4 this year. 


     
    hrabri_pero
    hrabri_pero
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    Posted: Apr. 17, 2012 - 10:32 AM ET #2

    first play this season:

    ARI -192
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    first play this season:

    ARI -192
     
    hrabri_pero
    hrabri_pero
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    Posted: Apr. 18, 2012 - 11:52 AM ET #3

    bad first day

    0-1  -1.92

    heavy favorite for today
    NYY -230
    STL -123
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    bad first day

    0-1  -1.92

    heavy favorite for today
    NYY -230
    STL -123
     
    hrabri_pero
    hrabri_pero
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    Posts: 82
    Posted: Apr. 18, 2012 - 11:57 AM ET #4

    bad first day

    0-1  -1.92

    heavy favorite for today
    NYY -230
    STL -123
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    bad first day

    0-1  -1.92

    heavy favorite for today
    NYY -230
    STL -123
     
    hrabri_pero
    hrabri_pero
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    Posts: 82
    Posted: Apr. 19, 2012 - 9:04 AM ET #5

    bad second day...

    overall:
    1-2 -3.22


    thursday:

    WAS -159
    MIA -157
    STL -155
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    bad second day...

    overall:
    1-2 -3.22


    thursday:

    WAS -159
    MIA -157
    STL -155
     
    PatrickBateman
    PatrickBateman
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    Posted: Apr. 24, 2012 - 9:45 AM ET #6

    Any chance you could do this with just dog bets to limit the juice?
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    Any chance you could do this with just dog bets to limit the juice?
     
    LSU2thBone
    LSU2thBone
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    Posted: Apr. 24, 2012 - 10:00 AM ET #7

    where did you go pero?

    IF this really was backtested, it's got a solid record. I don't know how it could have been backtested other than going through every single day's standings looking for plays. I can't see anyone taking the time to do this!

    I'm intrigued but don't trust that it has been backtested as the author took off after TWO DAYS!
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    where did you go pero?

    IF this really was backtested, it's got a solid record. I don't know how it could have been backtested other than going through every single day's standings looking for plays. I can't see anyone taking the time to do this!

    I'm intrigued but don't trust that it has been backtested as the author took off after TWO DAYS!
     
    hrabri_pero
    hrabri_pero
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    Posts: 82
    Posted: Apr. 24, 2012 - 4:07 PM ET #8

    it's backtested. 
    i even won 20 units on 4x4  in 2009 
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100449634&page=1 
    but then i started from may
    those stats are also from may... this year i rushed it a little

    @PatrickBateman
    you rarely get dogs with this system. 


    thursday was also bad 1-2 

    ytd 2-4 -5.36u 


    no games that satisfied condition over weekend



    today:

    CLE -132




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    it's backtested. 
    i even won 20 units on 4x4  in 2009 
    https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100449634&page=1 
    but then i started from may
    those stats are also from may... this year i rushed it a little

    @PatrickBateman
    you rarely get dogs with this system. 


    thursday was also bad 1-2 

    ytd 2-4 -5.36u 


    no games that satisfied condition over weekend



    today:

    CLE -132




     
    hrabri_pero
    hrabri_pero
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    Posts: 82
    Posted: Apr. 25, 2012 - 11:16 AM ET #9

    cle 

    ytd: 3-4 -4.36

    today... cleveland again falls into the system. but i'm not putting my money down...   





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    cle 

    ytd: 3-4 -4.36

    today... cleveland again falls into the system. but i'm not putting my money down...   





     
    sports_Network
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    Posts: 8426
    Posted: May. 1, 2012 - 10:57 AM ET #10

    hello hrabri_pero, I remember your system from 2009, and the work that is connected to it, glad to see you emerge again for the 2012 MLB season,  your 5x4 system is not only successful, but cuts deep into the risk factor, vg work, although you down play your profits with shear humbleness, and wagering caution, come on now, 30 units for the season? I easily see 90 with correct MM application; take care, nothing but the best in your direction, may you prosper always, your work is very interesting, and deserves merit, attention is recommended to those seeking a MLB system that is bonafide, and proven to be advantageous to the MLB capper;

    later

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    hello hrabri_pero, I remember your system from 2009, and the work that is connected to it, glad to see you emerge again for the 2012 MLB season,  your 5x4 system is not only successful, but cuts deep into the risk factor, vg work, although you down play your profits with shear humbleness, and wagering caution, come on now, 30 units for the season? I easily see 90 with correct MM application; take care, nothing but the best in your direction, may you prosper always, your work is very interesting, and deserves merit, attention is recommended to those seeking a MLB system that is bonafide, and proven to be advantageous to the MLB capper;

    later

     
     
    hrabri_pero
    hrabri_pero
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    Posts: 82
    Posted: Jul. 11, 2012 - 10:06 AM ET #11

    Worst season yet for this system 

    I checked out early. Wedding, buying an apartament... Big boy stuff. No time or money to play.

    Anyway this is breakdown of terrible things this system could have done to your budget this year.

    team by team record:

    BAL 1/6 0,167  -622
    BOS 3/6 0,5  -231
    NYY 1/6 0,167  -675
    TB 1/1 1  100
    CHW 1/4 0,25  -374
    CLE 4/8 0,5  -95
    DET 1/1 1  100
    KC 0/2 0  -233
    MIN 2/5 0,4  -172
    LAA 3/5 0,6  -23
    TEX 3/4 0,75  36
    MIA 3/5 0,6  20
    NYM 2/3 0,667  97
    PHI 0/1 0  -100
    WAS 2/6 0,33  -380
    BAL 1/6 0,167  -622
    MIL 2/4 0,5  -97
    STL 3/4 0,75  153
    ARI 2/4 0,5  -135
    COL 1/2 0,5  -47
    LA 6/9 0,667  256
    SF 5/9 0,556  -12

    total 46/95 0,484  -2434

    That would be IT for me and 'systems'.

    Good luck!
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    Worst season yet for this system 

    I checked out early. Wedding, buying an apartament... Big boy stuff. No time or money to play.

    Anyway this is breakdown of terrible things this system could have done to your budget this year.

    team by team record:

    BAL 1/6 0,167  -622
    BOS 3/6 0,5  -231
    NYY 1/6 0,167  -675
    TB 1/1 1  100
    CHW 1/4 0,25  -374
    CLE 4/8 0,5  -95
    DET 1/1 1  100
    KC 0/2 0  -233
    MIN 2/5 0,4  -172
    LAA 3/5 0,6  -23
    TEX 3/4 0,75  36
    MIA 3/5 0,6  20
    NYM 2/3 0,667  97
    PHI 0/1 0  -100
    WAS 2/6 0,33  -380
    BAL 1/6 0,167  -622
    MIL 2/4 0,5  -97
    STL 3/4 0,75  153
    ARI 2/4 0,5  -135
    COL 1/2 0,5  -47
    LA 6/9 0,667  256
    SF 5/9 0,556  -12

    total 46/95 0,484  -2434

    That would be IT for me and 'systems'.

    Good luck!
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