MLB Playoffs '23

I came up with a simple system for the baseball playoffs, which begin tomorrow.  The wager is on any home underdog.  I posted it last year on Covers, and it did well.  The system has worked because :

1) Every team in the playoffs is good

2) The home fans go crazy for their team.  

In the first round, the higher seed hosts all three games.  There might not be a play until round 2.  I have looked at the lines for the first set of games, and the home teams are favored in all four.  I will check on the lines daily, but the next post (and first wager) will likely be in round 2.

Looks interesting... good luck!

The first round is complete, all two game sweeps.  The first two games of Round 2 are hosted by the higher seed.  I just looked at the lines for Game 1 and the home team is favored in all four.  I will continue to check the lines, but the first play is likely Tuesday

The Twins and Rangers were looking like good bets.  The oddsmakers agreed and both are favored at home despite being lower seeds.  The D'backs are currently home underdogs for tomorrow's game.  I will wait until the lines for all four of tomorrow's games are up before posting.  The first wager of the Playoff Home Underdog System is likely tomorrow 

The Twins are favored again.  The Rangers have won their serires.  The Phillies are home favorites.  That leaves the D'backs as the first pick of the playoffs.  All lines are from Bovada.  This system is not a chase BTW 

Ari +124

b25 w31

Congrats to the Diamondbacks for eliminating the Dodgers. I am sure Arizona will come up again as a home underdog before the Champion is crowned.  Today the Phillies look to close out their series against Atl.

Phi +128

b25 w32

Results :

1 - 0

$31.00

Nice win for Philadelphia last night.  The MLB season  is down to four teams.  As for this betting system, it looks like Arizona and possibly Texas will be the choices when they are at home.  I will check the lines daily, but the next plays are looking like Wednesday (Tex) or Thursday (Ari).

Last year's playoffs are somewhere on this site.  I checked my records, and home underdogs went 6 - 3. 

Results :

2 - 0

$63.00

The lower seeded Rangers are at home.  However, they have been playing well and are favored.  The early line has Arizona at +115 tomorrow, but the starting pitcher for Philadelphia has not been listed.  IBest to wait until gameday.

Arizona is still an underdog, but the line moved to +105.  Sometimes waiting until gameday is best, sometimes it is not.  Oh well, could have had 10 more cents on the dollar.

Ari +105

b25 w26.25

Results :

2 - 0

$63.00

The Diamondbacks get it done at home and the system gos to 3 - 0.  Today, Texas is again favored at home while Arizona is again a slight home underdog.

Ari +111

b25 w27.75

Overall : 3 - 0

$89.25

Diamondbacks Baby!  Even if they lose today, make it to the World Series, and then lose all three home games, the system has clinched a profit.  It would only be $17, but not bad if you are grinding out wagers to obtain a sign-up or reload bonus.  Today is a good pitching match-up, Zack Wheeler v Zac Gallen.  Should be good, the system is going with Gallen at home.

Ari +110

b25 w27.50

Overall : 4 - 0

$117.00

Arizona has finally lost at home.  Unless they win two games on the road in Philadelphia, that could be the final game for the system this year.  I will continue to check the lines daily, but I project Texas, Houston. and Philadelphia to all be home favorites in their remaining games.

Overall Record :

4 - 1

$92.00

Arizona knocked off the Phillies in Game 7 and have reached the World Series.  Their first home game is after the weekend on Monday.  Stay tuned.....

Arizona is back at home.  They are currently a slight underdog on Bovada at -108.  I took a look at Vegas Insider, and they are as low as -104 at one book, -105 at a couple others, but not listed as a plus (+) ML wager anywhere that I saw.  For me, that means no-go today.  I understand it is possible to check again at the last minute, but that does not fit into my day and that's the way it is.  They still have two more to go at home 

Good no-go yesterday, Arizona did not win.  Bovada currently has both teams at -110 for tonight's game.  The line history for the game on OddsShark has Arizona as an underdog at +100 at one point, and Texas as an underdog at +100 a few hours later.  Rather than hawkishly check the line all day and pounce on 'Zona should the line go to +101, I am going to pass on this one, perhaps tomorrow......

Once again Arizona is listed as a negative ML wager.  Bovada has both teams at -110.  OddsShark shows a couple books have the Diamondbacks as slight underdogs at -105, still not where the line needs to be for a wager.  It is quite possible the MLB Playoff system is done for the year.  However, I will continue to check the lines until the World Series is over.

The World Series has ended.  Congratulations to the Texas Rangers, they really rolled through the Playoffs.  Waiting patiently and only wagering on home underdogs worked out.  There were zero plays in the first round, and only five in total.  Usually, there are a couple teams that receive the majority of the action, this year it was one, Arizona.  I have done the system 3 times.  Each of the past two seasons, and  the year when Houston won.  It nade a profit every time.  One team that has generated income has been the Dodgers.  How much longer will they win 95+ games and then choke in the playoffs?  Time will tell.  Maybe next year they are a Wild Card and win a few games as home underdogs.  Anyway, not a bad run, stay tuned for the NFL Playoffs....

$25 wagered each game

Overall :

4 - 1

Profit :

$92

Sorry I didn't keep up with this throughout the playoffs... life got in the way.

Congrats on your winning system!

No need to apologize.  Thanks for the compliment.  Happy to share, happy to win