MLB Over's SYSTEM

MLB Over’s SYSTEM

I am trying to replicate Gilmar406’s MLB Over’s system that he posted last year.  You can review the thread on the covers forum here, but just fair warning – it’s difficult to understand and conflicting – but I’m trying to determine the correct filters to use – so if you can please review and offer any insight possible.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101093710

I have also created a spreadsheet that will pull the data needed to determine the play – You can download it off of Google docs, just follow the “importing instructions” tab to update the various data points on a daily basis:

VERSION 1

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbQWpNWnpBTXR4cVE

Now I would love to get your feedback on how to make the system better, but what we really need is back-testing to see if the filters are where we need them to be to get the best results.

I will post the plays and results in this thread.

YTD 3-1

Today’s Plays

[971] TOTAL o9-105 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs BAL ORIOLES)

( H. ALVAREZ -R / TO. HUNTER -R )

DG,

You are the man!  I have to "LOL" when I see all these macros doing their thing.  Worked flawlessly for me! 

Is a play indicated only if all cells have a YES in them? 

Not sure if anybody is going to be able to backtest this.  This thread could be the beginning of the testing if can stick to it!

The "yes" in the spreadsheet mean it meets the criteria for the column and threshold number in yellow on the bottom. So if it meets all the criteria you should see "yes" accross the board.

Now if it's all "yes" but has a maybe - it can still be a play because that metric is close to the threshold.

it was a great system and had a good record. Good luck Degen!

YTD 3-2

[971] TOTAL o9-105 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs BAL ORIOLES) - LOSS

No plays today

YTD 3-2

So this system has not been producing many plays lately - but today there happens to be 2 - so let's see how they pan out....shall we.

Today's Plays

Apr 30 NY METS [R.A. DICKEY -R] / HOU ASTROS [B. NORRIS -R]  o8-110

Apr 30 LA DODGERS [A. HARANG -R] / COL ROCKIES [J. NICASIO -R] o9½-110

YESTERDAY:

Apr 30 NY METS [R.A. DICKEY -R] / HOU ASTROS [B. NORRIS -R]  o8-110 (LOSS)

Apr 30 LA DODGERS [A. HARANG -R] / COL ROCKIES [J. NICASIO -R] o9½-110 (LOSS)

YTD 3-4

Just getting uglier.  I am am going to look at Gilmar's filters again.  It could be just too early - he did start his system in July.

But I think it involves the RS/RA filters that is causing some issues.

No Plays today

YTD 3-4

Still tweaking but todays plays are

CLE / CWS over 8

BAL / NYY over 9.5

YTD 4-5

Today's Results:

CLE / CWS over 8 WIN

BAL / NYY over 9.5 LOSS

I'm following...let's see this thing get HOT!

Yeah BigDog - I hope it gets hot soon.  I think it's just too early in the year.  I'm still tweaking the filters to see if it produces different results / plays.

But keep in mind Gilmar started this system in July - so i'm thinking it's just too early.

I reccomend following along but not betting till we are sure that the system is producing winning plays.

DegenGamle, Totals kick in after the All Star game, up until that point (April,May,June) their just isn't any concrete stats to use based on team play, with many cappers turning to last years team stats as an alternative. totals, unlike the ML or RL are based on in-depth sabermetric handicapping, which need to be accompanied by present season 'established' stats of at least 40 games plus to get an advantage read, and cut risk...regardless of what system or formula is being initiated; wait and observe the daily outcome of virtual play, then make your move, you'll know when the time is right. one thing for sure, playing totals at the start of the season is not recommended. this particular system has merit, your assessment is correct, watch, and wait, then execute your system,

bigdog56, this system requires 'work' not for the lazy, or the in-experience (as most wanna Be's won't even understand the formula's connected to the system) those who have an interest will find out after continued testing that it works, and works accurately;

experienced cappers who are unaware of this system, or use similar formula's to initiate need not go through a testing process, as the system has already proven to be accurate, and has been used for at least 8 seasons that I personally am aware of, nobody 'invented ' anything here, Gilmar406 has brought a modified version of a successful 'totals' system to the forefront, DegenGamble, has created a valuable spreadsheet to coincide it's exsistence, and value to all total players who use their own mind, and seek advantage..this thread and the information brought forth from the spreadsheet possess extreme value.....