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I AM ALWAYS TRYING TO LEARN. I OBSERVE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND INCORPORATE THAT INTO MY HANDICAPPING. SOME FACTORS SUPERCEED OTHERS. I AM NOW THROUGHLY CONVINCED THAT TEAMS THAT TRAVEL LONG DISTANCES STARTING THE LAST WEEK IN OCTOBER SUPERCEED ALMOST EVERYTHING I USE TO HANDICAP. I DID A 10 YEAR STUDY AND THE EVIDENCE IS CLEAR. LETS LOOK AT THIS PAST WEEK.
I WILL BREAK DOWN TEAMS THAT TRAVELED LONG DISTANCES INTO 4 CATORGORIES. 3 OF THEM STADILY PRODUCE LOSING TEAMS, HOWEVER; THE BETTER THE TEAM THE LESSER THE TRAVEL EFFECT.
BAD TEAMS
IOWA STATE +30 LOSE BY 42
WASH +28 LOSE BY 58
WASH ST+46 LOSE BY 56
SAN DIEGO STATE -6 LOSE BY 25 TO LOWLY WYOMING
ALL 4 BAD TEAMS LOST TO THE SPREAD BY AN AVERAGE OF 21 POINTS!!!
BELOW AVERAGE, AVER. ,AND ABOVE AVER. TEAMS
HOUSTON -8 LOST BY 14
S FLA-2 LOST BY14
HAW-5 LOST BY 16
SAN JOSE-15 WON BY 6
LOUISVILLE-11 LOST BY 7
COLOR +4 LOST BY 7
FRESNO STATE-21 LOST BY 3
ARIZ ST+14 LOST BY 2 AND ARE THE ONLY TEAM TO COVER THIIS CATORGORY LOST BY AN AVERAGE OF 13 POINTS TO THE SPREAD.
GOOD TEAMS POSSIBLE JAN 1-2 BOWL TEAMS
MISSOURI -21 WON BY 3
TEAMS WITH 1 LOSE OR LESS
TCU AND BOISE STATE WERE EASY WINNERS. UTAH LOST TO THE SPREAD BUT WON THE GAME.
THIS HAPPENS EVERY YEAR AT THIS TIME IT IS AMAZING HOW LONG TRAVEL EFFECTS TEAMS ESPECIALLY BAD TEAMS. REALLY GOOD TEAMS BEAT THE SPREAD BUT OVER ALL NOT AS CONVINCINGLY AS IF THEY PLAYED AT HOME.
BAD TEAMS REALLY PLAY BADLY. AVERAGE, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEAMS DO ALMOST AS POORLY.
MISSOURI THE ONLY GOOD TEAM THAT TRAVELED LOST TO THE SPREAD BY 18.
I HAD LOUISVILLE AND S FLA AS PLAYS THIS WEEK . EVERYTHING WAS RIGHT EXCEPT THE LONG TRAVEL FACTOR. THAT SEEMED TO SUPECEED ALL OTHER FACTORS.
MORE INTERESTING THAN THAT IS THAT 3 OF THE WORSE TEAMS IN THE NATION THAT SELDOM COVER WERE HOME TEAMS TO LONG TRAVELING TEAMS. ALL 3 COVERED EASILY!!!!!!!!!!
I NOW AM GOING TO USE THE LONG TRAVL RULE AS A CORNERSTONE TO HANDICAPPING. IF AL OTHER THINGS TELL ME THAT A TEAM SHOULD BE PLAYED AND IT IS LATE IN THE YEAR (OCT25AND AFTER) I WILL PASS THE GAME. THE ONLY TEAMS THAT DO OK ARE TEAMS THAT HAVE 1 OR LESS LOSES. EVEN AT THAT THEY AS A WHOLE, DO NOT PERFORM AS WELL.
I GAVE OUT ANOTHER LONG TRAVEL PLAY ( SEE MY ARTICLE) THIS WEEK. IT WON. IT IS NOW 16-2 SO FAR THIS YEAR.
THE BEST TO YOU
PROF K
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