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Yesterday and this past week I shared with everybody about playing teams that need to win in order to get to a bowl game.This has hit 70% over the year and is especially good with dogs. I did not bother handicapping any of those teams. I put it on automatic pilot. If I had more time I would attempt to look deeper into a team's playbut Iam doing 4 things.
When I handicap I use what I call " prime factors". I combine them with secondary factors and come up with my plays. The method I used for the Louisville game is a secondary method that is dependent on prime internal factors but its very strong because many things are already at play making the prime factors a likflyhood.
I told everybody that Louisville fit the pattern of a team "needing " to win to get to a bowl game. Only 2 teams have lost this year using this simple but powerful tool.
Having said that I started watching the game and could see immediately I was in trouble. Rutgers' defensive line, especially the right defensive end were having their own way with Louisville. Also Louisville had a rash of injuries and were razor thin with their defensve backs and safeties. I decided to try to bale out of this game with live betting. I felt Rutgers was going to win but not as badly as they did. The idea is to wager enough so that whoever covers you have both sides in the green. Let us say I had $50 on Louisville before the game at +114 odds.( I did) That is a $66 profit if they win. After the first touchdown Rutgers scored they were offered at-180. I took Rutgers at that -180 . I risked $126 to make $70. .If they won at this point I would be up $70- $50 or $20 since I already risked $50 on Louisville. If I lose , I would lose $60. I can now play up to $20 on Louisville because I have $70 to the good on them. I played $18 of that on them and plugged it at 3.50 to 1 odds. It did not take long for them to reach that. Now who ever wins I am $2.00 ahead. 18 x 3.5 is $62. I put a total of $68 on Louisville to make $128. I had risked $126 on Rutgers so I would make $2. I risked $126 on Rutgers to make $70. Since I played $68 on Louisville I made $2 on Rutgers.
There are several outstanding live betting stragedies. I will go over them in some up coming posts.
Today I have only two NBA games- New Jersey and Utah at 10 units- no college. I am done giving out my best play to the service I had hoped to work with. We are parting on friendly terms . Yesterday was my final play. UCLA. I will give out all my plays with a unit rating. I was 3-4 in college, 1-0 in the NBA ,0-2 in football. This was my stinker day. I actually made a slight profit on basketball, broke even on the Louisville game and lost on the Oakland game. I had a tiny lose. You should notice a pattern for a while of my plays losing by big margins. I will explain why later in futher postings. When that happens one of those teams has been exposed as either being no good or being a much better team than expected. Those teams are high % plays to continue going in the same direction. Such teams are experiencing a "bull run" or a "bear run". 60% to 70% of all teams that show certain characteristics do well for me. When they do not, many times I lose by big margins and catch those teams to continue to go the same direction the next time out.
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