Live wagering how to save yourself from a bad play

   Yesterday  and this past week I shared with everybody about playing teams that need to win in order to get to a bowl game.This has hit 70% over the year and is especially good with dogs. I did not bother handicapping any of those teams. I put it on automatic pilot. If I had more time I would attempt to look deeper into a team's playbut Iam doing 4 things.

 When I handicap I use what I call " prime factors". I combine them with secondary factors and come up with my plays. The method I used for the Louisville game is a secondary method that is dependent on prime internal factors but its very strong  because many things are already at play making the prime factors a likflyhood.

 I told everybody that Louisville fit the pattern  of a team "needing " to win to get to a bowl game. Only 2 teams have lost this year using this simple but powerful tool.

  Having said that I started watching the game and could see immediately I was in trouble. Rutgers' defensive line, especially the right defensive end were having their own way with Louisville. Also Louisville had a rash of injuries and were razor thin with their defensve backs and safeties. I decided to try to bale out of this game with live betting. I felt Rutgers was going to win but not as badly as they did. The idea is to wager enough so that whoever covers you have both sides in the green. Let us say I had $50 on Louisville before the game at +114 odds.( I did) That is a $66 profit if they win. After the first touchdown Rutgers scored they were offered at-180.  I took Rutgers  at that -180 . I risked $126 to make $70. .If they won at this point I would be up $70- $50 or $20 since I already risked $50 on Louisville. If I lose , I  would lose $60. I can now play up to $20 on Louisville because I have $70 to the good on them. I played $18 of that on them and plugged it at 3.50 to 1 odds. It did not take long for them to reach that.  Now who ever wins I am $2.00 ahead. 18 x 3.5 is $62. I put a  total of  $68 on Louisville to make $128. I had risked $126 on Rutgers so I would make $2. I risked $126 on Rutgers to make $70. Since I played $68 on Louisville I made $2 on Rutgers.

           There are several outstanding live betting stragedies. I will go over them in some up coming posts.

 Today I have only two NBA games- New Jersey and Utah at 10 units- no college. I am done giving out my best play to the service I had hoped to work with. We are parting on friendly terms . Yesterday was my final play. UCLA.  I will give out all my plays with a  unit rating. I was 3-4 in college, 1-0 in the NBA ,0-2 in football. This was my stinker day. I actually made a slight profit on basketball, broke even on the Louisville game and lost on the Oakland game. I had a tiny lose. You should notice a pattern for a while of  my plays losing  by big margins. I will explain why later in futher postings. When that happens one of those teams has been exposed as either being no good or being a much better team than expected. Those teams are high % plays to continue going in the same direction. Such teams are experiencing a "bull run" or a "bear run". 60% to 70% of all teams that show certain characteristics do well for me.  When they do not, many times I lose by big margins and catch those teams to continue to go the same direction the next time out.

  Both games were easy winners yesterday. I always seem to have good weekends to great weekends. I have little time today. I am going to a class Christmas Party. I can not even watch any games. Al ot of games today but I should do ok  to really good on them.

 NBA

    Cleve, Minn, N O, Chic, Den  10 units  Okl ,N J, 8 units Utah 5 units

 college  

strongest Minn, St J, E Ky,  strong Aub, Miss, Utah St, Day, Aust P, E Wash- very good j Mad, Tulane, Idaho, Ga St, Color St, Bay

 football  Ariz St  : need game' Tulsa, Vt ,Fla Int good games Army  S Fla

 The best to everybody. I have given out all plays today

 

...thank you sir...

Thought you would like to know. 

  The  La Clippers and Utah State, both teams I like are getting smart big money put on them. Take this with a grain of salt though when I have posted smart money moves it has done well in the past. It is just caused by other handicappers who have serious money that makes this happen.

My computer went down. We had a lot of snow here. I did the college games for BK. Computer just went back on.

 Niagara,  Cansius very strong

 Kansas St, Ucla strong

 UL LAF, Okla  good

 It is anti climax Monday in the NBA. Good teams are often at low ebbs on Mon and Tues. I will  pass these two days when good teams are the play. Data supports that decision. There is only 1 play in both college and pros. That is Okla(NBA) Speaking of low ebbs we have the worst team around that we are playing (10units).        

  We programmed some information into our method today. The results have been eye opening. I just thought about this new info yesterday and found out what was bothering me about certain games and spread patterns. The new stuff we discovered, which covers 20,000 games, took our method up an astounding 5 percentage points. I did not expect that but we try to look  at a game like a share of stock. Is that stock one that bottomed out or topped out? Is that stock on a bull run or bear run? What we did not do before today is compare back to back point spreads. Had we known it's value we woud have had an exploding month. When we are playing a team because we like them and the spread is lower than the last game that has caused us to like a team our method went to a new level of accomplishment. We think we are ready to go full speed and are excited about the new info we found. I now have my overseas ex- student. He contacted me and will also help me. He has a brilliant mind and was a professional athlete, so he understands sports and sports cycles.

    The best to all

  I have another play for you at this 8:15 posting. San Jose +9 or +8 1/2. I like it and waited to get my play in before releasing it. Heavy smart money is also on this game. I think the smart money games I have given you are 6-1.  I do not put much stock into this but it is good to know others like the same plays I do.

 Mondays are anti climax days. Smaller crowds. People going back to work, usually better games and teams on the week end.In college the two best teams Illinois and Louisville both lost to the spread. loiusville was 3-0 going in toteams it was favored by 20 or more but lost this . Illinois was hot against the spread but struggled against a not so good Hawaaii.. In the NBA the best team playing Mon. lost both to the spread and straight up to lowly Memphis. Miami lost the spread never seriously threatening it and only a fourth quarter rally got Orlando thru. Tues is the second part of the anti climax start of the week. Over all be careful especialy in the NBA. Teams favored by a lot in colege be careful..

    Games today using our new tools. You will enjoy the picks in the long run and probably the short one.

 N IOWA,, IOWA STATE. VILLANOVA, strong , DENVER very good.   NBA Cleve.