Line Move Plays

Question

Recently, a few times on my spreadsheet, I noticed that the difference from the opening line to the current line was significant. At the same time, the public wagering percentage was high for that team.

I heard of plays like these... you would fade this team in the above example. I don't like taking anyone's word for it so I'm going to track it.

That said, what are good numbers to have a play? The ML going down 10 on the favorite (-150 to -140)?.... 15 (-150 to -135)? Also, how much should the public percentage be on the faded team?

As of yesterday, I have the numbers as a ML move of 10 (example: -150 to -140) on the favorite and the public percentage at over 55%.

I try to refresh the odds as close to game time, but sometimes, like on Saturdays, just can't be done (I work).

Any thoughts on what the numbers should be?

Plays yesterday were San Fran and Chicago White Sox. Today it's Washington, NY Yankees and Texas. Texas' line went from -190 to -220 with only 37% of the public wagering on them.

Thoughts?

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

Recently, a few times on my spreadsheet, I noticed that the difference from the opening line to the current line was significant. At the same time, the public wagering percentage was high for that team.

I heard of plays like these... you would fade this team in the above example. I don't like taking anyone's word for it so I'm going to track it.

That said, what are good numbers to have a play? The ML going down 10 on the favorite (-150 to -140)?.... 15 (-150 to -135)? Also, how much should the public percentage be on the faded team?

As of yesterday, I have the numbers as a ML move of 10 (example: -150 to -140) on the favorite and the public percentage at over 55%.

I try to refresh the odds as close to game time, but sometimes, like on Saturdays, just can't be done (I work).

Any thoughts on what the numbers should be?

Plays yesterday were San Fran and Chicago White Sox. Today it's Washington, NY Yankees and Texas. Texas' line went from -190 to -220 with only 37% of the public wagering on them.

Thoughts?

LABOOKIE · Answer

doesnt work all the time, like today the public killed it and the line movement was crazy

BuckeyeKaptn · Answer

That&#x27;s what what I wanna track. Right now, I have it set that if the line moves at least 10 opposite the public percentage of 56% or higher, it&#x27;s a "play".  I&#x27;m tracking the "plays"Since I posted this, the record is 4-8 with today&#x27;s plays going 3-0 if SD and KC hang to win...Nyy being the other game, which would make 7-8.What I was hoping to happen was to have a discussion on this with maybe increasing to 15 or 20 difference in the ML and the %% of public bets.No one put in their thoughts.

Line Move Plays

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