Interesting findings concerning NHL O/U

I decided to see if we could use the last 5 games to determine o/u trends in the NHL. I used this formula: Here's an example:

 

From Jan. 15th              GFA    GAA     LAST 5 GMS

                          BOS    3.20   2.20

                        @NYI     2.40   4.00

 

Take BOS GFA(3.2)+NYI GAA(4.0), and divide by 2 (7.2/2=3.6)

next NYI GFA(2.4)+BOS GAA(2.2), and divide by 2 (4.6/2=2.3)

 

Add the totals (3.6+2.3=5.9) and play according to the total. In this case the total was set at 5.5, so you would play the over. I thought this might help find a trend, based on which teams were playing well on offensive or defense. Boy, was i off! Been tracking for 7 days and betting o/u using this formula would have netted me 13 winners and 29 losers! Not what i expected, but i'm gonna keep tracking. This could be some serious fade material if these numbers continue. Any thoughts? Anyone try this or something similiar before?

                           

I think it will eventualy even out

My systems worked at 72% for a week or two but after that I went broke. The idea is that they are all coming back somewhere to 50% and the odds are really not in your favour. The oddsmakers are very good statisticians and you can't beat them with their own weapons. 

In the end I decided that the best approach is to treat the games as particular events that need to be analised in a very particular manner, beginning with the stats and finishing with the situational and psychological implications.

My conclusion is that there is no system that lasts for ever and that applies to all games. Every game is a particular event and just take it as it is.

Good luck anyway!

Work only with the offensive stats.

Take into consideration the offensive for the last 5 games and the overall offensive. Substract the L5  offensive average from the overall offensive average and add the resulted difference to the overall offensive average and that will give the scoring of team A for the next game.

Example: 16.01.09, Anaheim at Pittsburgh:

Anaheim: overall = 2.8 

last 5 = 3.2, so 2.8 - 3.2 = -0.4 and 2.8 + (-0.4) = 2.4

Pittsburgh: overall = 3.0

So, we expekt Anaheim to score 2.4 and Pittsburgh to score 2.8, so together they will score 5.2. We'll round up the total at 5 and play the under 5.5.

I haven't tested the formula, but the basic idea is that any average must come back to its mean value. After a mountain comes a valley in order to stay to ground zero or at sea level.

Accordingly to my theory, the totals would be:

Anaheim@Pittsburgh 5.2 play under 5.5

Toronto@Atlanta 6.8 play over 6.5

Philadelphia@Florida 4.4 play under 5.5

NYRangers@Chicago 6.4 play over 5.5

Edmonton@Colorado 5.4 play under 5.5

NewJersey@Columbus 5.6 no play 

......sweet....

Anaheim@Pittsburgh = 5 = win

Toronto@Atlanta = 7 = win

Philadelphia@Florida = 5 = win

NYRangers@Chicago = 5 = loss (next game)

Edmonton@Colorado = 5 = win.

4-1 W-L.

Dog, continue to run your formula in this thread if you wish. I'll continue to update what has become my system to fade,lol.

Anyway, you have an interesting approach. Most of the players are trying to pick winners, overs and so on. Your system to fade the most recent evidence is very interesting.

Good luck and please share your latest results.

LA = 3.4 @ Dallas = 3.2 total =  6.6 

Carolina = 3.0 @ Buffalo = 3.4 total = 6.4 

Montreal = 1.8 @ Ottawa = 2.0 total = 3.8 

NewJersey = 3.0 @ NYIslanders = 3.2 total = 6.2 

Boston = 4.0 @ Washington = 3.8 total = 7.8

Florida = 1.0 @ TampaBay = 2.0 total = 3.0

Atlanta = 2.6 @ Nashville = 2.0 total = 4.6

Chicago = 4.8 @ StLouis = 2.0 total = 6.8

Anaheim = 2.8 @ Minnesota = 2.0 total = 4.8

Phoenix = 3.0 @ Calgary = 2.8 total = 5.8

Detroit = 3.0 @ San Jose = 3.2 total = 6.2

hey dog   where r u getting your stats for the last 5 games. or how r u arriving at them  i would like to try it myself----kind of a quirk of mine        thnx  

https://scores.covers.com/hockey-scores-matchups.aspx, select the "matchup" and on the bottom right side you'll find statistics (overall, home and away, lat 5 and so on).

1-4 last night with 1 no play. Since Jan 9th, 14-33-1. Will not be betting this system however until we get get more data. Still waiting to see if things even out.

As you have seen already it's a disaster.

I'll take a break from systems and formulas, because they'll burn all my money.

Tonight I was 

Last night, was NOT a night to fade the formula.8-2 last night, brings the record to 22-35-1, 62.8%. Dog's formula went 4-7 last night. Will see if the trends even out.

dog   take another look at your formula.     reverse what u r

betting.  if it says bet over----bet under and take a look?  now your success rate is???????????????  

 

4-6 the last 2 nights, ytd 26-41...fade at 61%. 

you guys are beating a dead horse. any system or theory you think you are coming up with is not usable by any stretch of the imagination. there are no consistant stats that can lead you to predict the nhl. think about it, there are no books on handicapping the nhl. there are very few handicapper that sell their nhl picks because there isnt a solid system or piece of information to really follow for handicapping nhl. any numbers or ideas that you come up wth dont hold up for the long term. they are all hit and miss, you just dont know when to hit and avoid the misses. as always good luck.

System update thru 1/28 is 46-51. Things are starting to even out, just as i thought they might. As far as rudie's comments, i do believe you can find some consistent strategies for NHL betting, at least some things you can add to your capping arsenal.