Idea for NHL system

Hey Guys… I have been playing around with schedules and tried this particular idea a few different ways… the method I am about to show is what I feel has been the most successful so far throughout my back testing.

... While I think of it, just to clarify, all plays are ML. I don't like PL, too much juice involved for dogs. So results are based on ML for all games.

Need to know average odds to determine units lost and to find out if it is profitable.

Well that's the thing... The odds vary from faves through to dogs and everything in between... Especially because its a play on every team.

I included the top teams as plays because the losses weren't restricted to the top teams.

I'll post plays and run an aggressive labby line to see how it plays out for the season.

I would suggest not to play these are this it is unsure at this point if system is profitable or not.

I know there are 3 plays today all on dogs for the A game.

Will post em up soon..

Lets track live results till end of season to see how it goes. Not sure how Winter Olympics will effect results.

Goodsy, How would this have done for the first part of this season?

I don't think the winning % is really good enough to play this. While all A-D games were below 50% last year, in the 3 previous season the A games have been the best.

A: 201 - 165 total, 55% (26-33, 66-43, 58-45, 51-44)

B: 89 - 76 total, 54% (15-18, 27-16, 24-21, 23-21)

C: 33 - 43 total, 43% (5-13, 9-7, 10-11, 9-12)

D: 22 - 21 total, 51% (6-7, 3-4, 6-5, 7-5)

Not trying to be too critical but the numbers really don't make this an attractive play for me. Playing on an agressive labby line with this low of a win% could create some potentially big bets.

BOL tracking through the rest of the season.

 

Hey Danrules24.. Not sure how it would have performed earlier this season. Have only come up with this idea last week or so, decided to hold off back testing this season until it is completed.

I woul rather you and others to be critical of the numbers and idea. I felt other than live testing I have done what I can. So decided to post it up here for some constructive feedback with the view to improve or just discard. So really seeking done assistance.

Today's 3 dog plays are not very attractive bets in terms of individual plays.

What would you consider to be a good enough percentage for A B C wins etc for it to be an attractive system. Just want to gauge an idea to work off fit other systems. Regardless will still do this 1 month sample size of li e testing for this idea.

Thanks.

Just realised I have not stated the thought process behind the idea.

We have read about players getting tired during road trips. Well the idea of a - a - h - a is a team is not settled in 1 town for roughly a week. So it's a disruptive schedule always being on the move.

I personally don't have a set % for making something a good labby line play or not but if something is under 55% you most likely will have streaks of 5 or more wins followed by 5 or more losses. You need to ask yourelf what your aggressive labby line would look like after 5, 6, 7 losses in a row.

I'm pretty conservative in my wager amounts (trying to get better at it along with good MM), so I'm not sure if this would be good for me. What you might want to do is go through the 2011-2012 season and bet using a labby line per A-D bet and see how it would look. I've done that previously with different systems to see how my bets would actually look when playing a system. Could be lots of work, but you need to know. Definitely track how your bets would be when tracking the rest of this season.

** DO NOT PLAY ** UNPROVEN SYSTEM ** MONITORING 1 MONTH WORTH OF LIVE RESULTS **

Forum doesn't have an edit button... unless I am missing it.. but obviously there is a D line above as well which I neglected to add in.

Poor calculation last post with profit loss… 

omg… this is frustrating without an edit button.. both plays above would be to win 2.00, not 1.50… 

** DO NOT PLAY ** TESTING SYSTEM ** MONITORING 1 MONTH WORTH OF LIVE RESULTS **

I am not a labby or chase style bettor but I do track patterns. Here is a database link based on the parameters of L-4 games and AAHA.

https://b2b.sportsdatabase.com/nhl/query?sdql=team+and+p%3AA+and+pp%3AH+and+ppp%3AA+and+pppp%3AA+and+season+%3E%3D2013&submit=S+D+Q+L+!