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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Home team ATS system

    calinreddog
    Bengalfan9
    brad4498
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    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 2:35 PM ET #1

    I've been using from time to time a so called "system" for soccer and hockey betting and it had sometimes good results but at that time I also used a software that was eating my bankroll slowly and I didn't keep records of that system.
    I remembered that during the last days struggling to hit some basketball plays.
    It's very simple: I pick games where the home team stands a little bit higher than the away team in the general standings.
    For example, tonight Milwaukee stands 4 places above Minnesota in the NBA league standings and plays at home with a spread of -4. Or New Orleans, 7 places higher than Philadelphia in the general standings plays at home as a -3 favourite.
    I pick only this kind of games where the spread is at most -7.5 and the home team is better placed in the general standings than the away team, but not too far, let's say at most 7-8 places between them. Of course, otherwise the spread would be much higher. I look only at the spread and at the NBA general standings (not the power rankings). That simplifies a lot the process and I think it will give good results.
    The same way I'll play the hockey games. I pick the home team that is better placed but not too far and play it ATS. The closer are the teams the bigger are the odds ATS in hockey and the better team playing at home should win most of the time.
    The same in basketball: if the teams are closed the spread is low so the home has more chances to cover it, because it's supposed to play better, that's why is better placed in the general standings and it has the advantage of the field.
    I'll start keeping records of this "system" wich is more like a thought than a system for both hockey and basketball.
    Tonight plays would be New Orleans -3 and Milwaukee -4.
     
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I've been using from time to time a so called "system" for soccer and hockey betting and it had sometimes good results but at that time I also used a software that was eating my bankroll slowly and I didn't keep records of that system.
    I remembered that during the last days struggling to hit some basketball plays.
    It's very simple: I pick games where the home team stands a little bit higher than the away team in the general standings.
    For example, tonight Milwaukee stands 4 places above Minnesota in the NBA league standings and plays at home with a spread of -4. Or New Orleans, 7 places higher than Philadelphia in the general standings plays at home as a -3 favourite.
    I pick only this kind of games where the spread is at most -7.5 and the home team is better placed in the general standings than the away team, but not too far, let's say at most 7-8 places between them. Of course, otherwise the spread would be much higher. I look only at the spread and at the NBA general standings (not the power rankings). That simplifies a lot the process and I think it will give good results.
    The same way I'll play the hockey games. I pick the home team that is better placed but not too far and play it ATS. The closer are the teams the bigger are the odds ATS in hockey and the better team playing at home should win most of the time.
    The same in basketball: if the teams are closed the spread is low so the home has more chances to cover it, because it's supposed to play better, that's why is better placed in the general standings and it has the advantage of the field.
    I'll start keeping records of this "system" wich is more like a thought than a system for both hockey and basketball.
    Tonight plays would be New Orleans -3 and Milwaukee -4.
     
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 2:38 PM ET #2

    I'm sorry about the double topic, I hit twice the "submit" button due to a connection problem.
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    I'm sorry about the double topic, I hit twice the "submit" button due to a connection problem.
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 4:03 PM ET #3

    I looked back at the recent NBA games and this "system" would've been 8-6 (57%) since 20 Jan. untill now.
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    I looked back at the recent NBA games and this "system" would've been 8-6 (57%) since 20 Jan. untill now.
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 26, 2009 - 4:16 PM ET #4

    For NHL games back to 14 Jan. the record would've been 5 - 3 (62,5%) ATS.
    I only could find 8 games with the condition that the home team was placed above the away team in the general standings and the home team had to be at most -150 on the moneyline.
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    For NHL games back to 14 Jan. the record would've been 5 - 3 (62,5%) ATS.
    I only could find 8 games with the condition that the home team was placed above the away team in the general standings and the home team had to be at most -150 on the moneyline.
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 4:53 AM ET #5

    So NO -3 WIN and MIL -4 LOSS.
    The record is 9-7 win-loss for NBA games since 20.01 'till now.
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    So NO -3 WIN and MIL -4 LOSS.
    The record is 9-7 win-loss for NBA games since 20.01 'till now.
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 7:30 AM ET #6

    And I will play some soccer games in England, based on the same method of selection. For soccer I will select teams that play at home, stand just a little bit above in the general league standings (1 to 5 places at most) and have odds of at least +105 to win in regulation time (that's equivalent to -0.5 handicap betting).
    Today's games come from England Coca-Cola leagues (league two and conference or blue square):
     
    Bournemouth -0.5 vs. Luton Town
    Port Vale -0.5 vs. Chester City
    Altrincham -0.5 vs. York City
    Salisbury -0.5 vs. Forrest Green Rovers.
     
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    And I will play some soccer games in England, based on the same method of selection. For soccer I will select teams that play at home, stand just a little bit above in the general league standings (1 to 5 places at most) and have odds of at least +105 to win in regulation time (that's equivalent to -0.5 handicap betting).
    Today's games come from England Coca-Cola leagues (league two and conference or blue square):
     
    Bournemouth -0.5 vs. Luton Town
    Port Vale -0.5 vs. Chester City
    Altrincham -0.5 vs. York City
    Salisbury -0.5 vs. Forrest Green Rovers.
     
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 6:46 PM ET #7

    NHL picks:
     
    NYR -1.5
    BOS -1.5
    PHO -1.5
    EDM -1.5
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    NHL picks:
     
    NYR -1.5
    BOS -1.5
    PHO -1.5
    EDM -1.5
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 27, 2009 - 7:12 PM ET #8

    Soccer was 1 win - 3 losses.
    That makes the record 10 - 10.
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    Soccer was 1 win - 3 losses.
    That makes the record 10 - 10.
     
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2009 - 4:12 AM ET #9

    Rough night: 0 - 4
    Overall: 10 - 14.
     
    Bad idea, forget about it.
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    Rough night: 0 - 4
    Overall: 10 - 14.
     
    Bad idea, forget about it.
     
    Bengalfan9
    Bengalfan9
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2009 - 5:55 PM ET #10

    THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT WORK IN NBA
     

    Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

    Away Teams 345-312-8 52.51%
    Home Teams 312-345-8 47.49%
    Favorites 308-347-8 47.02%
    Dogs 347-308-8 52.98%
    Away Favorites 99-102-3 49.25%
    Away Dogs 245-209-5 53.96%
    Home Favorites 209-245-5 46.04%
    Home Dogs 102-99-3 50.75%
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    THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT WORK IN NBA
     

    Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

    Away Teams 345-312-8 52.51%
    Home Teams 312-345-8 47.49%
    Favorites 308-347-8 47.02%
    Dogs 347-308-8 52.98%
    Away Favorites 99-102-3 49.25%
    Away Dogs 245-209-5 53.96%
    Home Favorites 209-245-5 46.04%
    Home Dogs 102-99-3 50.75%
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2009 - 7:07 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by Bengalfan9:

    THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT WORK IN NBA
     

    Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

    Away Teams 345-312-8 52.51%
    Home Teams 312-345-8 47.49%
    Favorites 308-347-8 47.02%
    Dogs 347-308-8 52.98%
    Away Favorites 99-102-3 49.25%
    Away Dogs 245-209-5 53.96%
    Home Favorites 209-245-5 46.04%
    Home Dogs 102-99-3 50.75%

    Yes, you're right.

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bengalfan9:

    THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT WORK IN NBA
     

    Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

    Away Teams 345-312-8 52.51%
    Home Teams 312-345-8 47.49%
    Favorites 308-347-8 47.02%
    Dogs 347-308-8 52.98%
    Away Favorites 99-102-3 49.25%
    Away Dogs 245-209-5 53.96%
    Home Favorites 209-245-5 46.04%
    Home Dogs 102-99-3 50.75%

    Yes, you're right.

     

     
    brad4498
    brad4498
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    Posts: 29
    Posted: Jan. 28, 2009 - 7:23 PM ET #12

    Not necessarily.  If you are filtering the games enough your results would not equal the 46% shown above.  It's all about applying the right type of filter that will result in a proven track record of 58% or so.  Overall home favs may be 209-245 but with the filter your results may look more like 60-40.  Notice a lot fewer plays and the filter you applied successfully worked.  It's actually quite simple to figure out.  The hard part is to find the control to not bet on games outside of the system and to also not get out of control on a losing streak.  That is what kills people more than the handicapping or system.
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    Not necessarily.  If you are filtering the games enough your results would not equal the 46% shown above.  It's all about applying the right type of filter that will result in a proven track record of 58% or so.  Overall home favs may be 209-245 but with the filter your results may look more like 60-40.  Notice a lot fewer plays and the filter you applied successfully worked.  It's actually quite simple to figure out.  The hard part is to find the control to not bet on games outside of the system and to also not get out of control on a losing streak.  That is what kills people more than the handicapping or system.
     
     
    calinreddog
    calinreddog
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    Posted: Jan. 28, 2009 - 7:29 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by brad4498:

    Not necessarily.  If you are filtering the games enough your results would not equal the 46% shown above.  It's all about applying the right type of filter that will result in a proven track record of 58% or so.  Overall home favs may be 209-245 but with the filter your results may look more like 60-40.  Notice a lot fewer plays and the filter you applied successfully worked.  It's actually quite simple to figure out.  The hard part is to find the control to not bet on games outside of the system and to also not get out of control on a losing streak.  That is what kills people more than the handicapping or system.

    I totally agree with you,

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    Quote Originally Posted by brad4498:

    Not necessarily.  If you are filtering the games enough your results would not equal the 46% shown above.  It's all about applying the right type of filter that will result in a proven track record of 58% or so.  Overall home favs may be 209-245 but with the filter your results may look more like 60-40.  Notice a lot fewer plays and the filter you applied successfully worked.  It's actually quite simple to figure out.  The hard part is to find the control to not bet on games outside of the system and to also not get out of control on a losing streak.  That is what kills people more than the handicapping or system.

    I totally agree with you,

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