HFOUDL System 2009

ant731 it appears tom made a typo error(it happens) the Mets+103 were the home dog in their Monday night win, the Cardinals were -111    SN

Hallo,

            I have prepared execel spredsheet which uses covers closing lines to test this method. I know that you are trying to use opening lines but records for previous seasons are almost same for your records (+/- 1 unit). After many tests I can say that excel formulas dont make any mistakes and according to this data you should now have record:

Chase 52-4

Home swept favorites after being dogs are:

05/08/09 CLE fav -129 after losing as +148 which geneates -10,8 units loss

05/29/09 KC fav -114 after losing as +115 which geneates -11 units loss

06/09/09 MIL fav -136 after losing as +134 which generates -13,9 units loss

05/12/09 TOR fav -210 after losing as +140 which generates -15 units loss

According to closing lines your chases results would be only about +1 unit. Betting each game result whould be about +2,5 units (using wager -125 means 125$ as a stake) - but I only play 3 games, even if a series is 4 games.

Can you explain wchich one chase did you skip and why? Is it only a difference between opening and closing line which decides about playing or not?  Did I understand everything correctly? Looking at this lines above It looks like only KC can be a team which opening line can be set as a home dog - rest is set to low to change from dog to favorite.

Results from my spreadsheet from others years (favorite line <=-104):

2008:

Chase: 113 - 8 and +27 profit, yield 5,5%

Beting each game (but only first 3 games in series 3-5 games, 4th game was skipped):

224-138 and +41,5 units profit, yield 8,2%

2007

Chase: 103 - 3 and +73,2, yield 18,1 % (insane!)

Betting 3 games in series: +33,2 units, yield 7,4%

2006

Chase: 98 - 7 and -12,3 loss

Betting each 3 games in series: 126-111 and -19,9 loss

2005:

Chase: 93 - 9 and -0,5 loss

All :175 - 131 and -0,9 loss

As we can see - one year can be profitable another can make as very very poor. We must remember that playing progressions on favorites we can be temporary much more below then we can afford. Playing that way during hard season we can be temporary or even finally under -40 units or even more (i.e. 3 games at 3rd level which sometimes happens, and for each one we must put over 10 units) - which normally ends our career and we stay in the rope on our neck. I must notice also that last two seasons was very profitable and almost all methods/systems friendly - I have found 2 others very profitable methods for this seasons - but for others it wasn't profitable at all.

This are my conclusions for this methods.

Even in your method was very good from 3 last sesons I must wish to you Good Luck. For this seasons we shoudl remember that although we have almost half of regular season we have only 23 team series swept at home. It is little bit abnormal because for each 4 previous seasons at the end there were 65-70 team sweeps at the end. It means that is very probable that the rest (about 90 games left, so about 27 series for each team) we will have about 45 home sweeps. So it is very probable that it will be more than 4 sweeps after beeing dog in previus game - if it happen - you will go down a little bit with your bankroll. But so far it looks quite nice ;)

Anyway Good Luck ;)

Please contact SN pertaining to your research, impressive