Hi Tomspeople, nicejob on the system. Been losing my a*** on another system that was paid for so I think I'll have to take up your system.
Just a suggestion, and modification of double up system on the chase. Most of the time you have multiple series running at the same time. Rather than chase every individual team, One idea might be to chase and stop when the combined return of the multiple series show a profit. For instance if there are 3 team series running and after the first bets 2 of 3 teams win, then stop the chase then. If 1 of t3 teams win, double up to recover losses on the next bet and then if 2 of 3 teams win, then stop there. I think you get the gist. The return for this way of money management will be less, but it also has the potential to reduce or eliminate the dreaded third high stake bet in the series. If you think this is worthwhile, I wonder whether some backtracking to see whether it works would be worthwhile. Otherwise, awesome job that you do,
0
Hi Tomspeople, nicejob on the system. Been losing my a*** on another system that was paid for so I think I'll have to take up your system.
Just a suggestion, and modification of double up system on the chase. Most of the time you have multiple series running at the same time. Rather than chase every individual team, One idea might be to chase and stop when the combined return of the multiple series show a profit. For instance if there are 3 team series running and after the first bets 2 of 3 teams win, then stop the chase then. If 1 of t3 teams win, double up to recover losses on the next bet and then if 2 of 3 teams win, then stop there. I think you get the gist. The return for this way of money management will be less, but it also has the potential to reduce or eliminate the dreaded third high stake bet in the series. If you think this is worthwhile, I wonder whether some backtracking to see whether it works would be worthwhile. Otherwise, awesome job that you do,
tomspeople, didnt the mets open as a fav on sunday? im seeing they did here on covers if u look at line moves...anyhow, good pick last night!! keep it up!
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tomspeople, didnt the mets open as a fav on sunday? im seeing they did here on covers if u look at line moves...anyhow, good pick last night!! keep it up!
tomspeople, didnt the mets open as a fav on sunday? im seeing they did here on covers if u look at line moves...anyhow, good pick last night!! keep it up!
Yes, you're right. It was an error, it should not have been a play, and will not be counted towards the systems totals. On another note, at least I got some extra money in my pocket from that mistake ;)
(betting each game of series) AL = 63-36 (63.64%) +16.47u NL = 40-28 (58.82%) +5.15u Total = 103-64 (61.68%) +21.62u
(Chase) AL = 30-2 (93.75%) +4.21u NL = 20-1 (95.24%) +6.45u Total = 50-3 (94.34%) +10.66u
Games For June 23rd, 2009
Singles Ari -141 Pit -111 Mil -109
Chase Ari -141
Pit -111
Mil -109
0
Quote Originally Posted by ant731:
tomspeople, didnt the mets open as a fav on sunday? im seeing they did here on covers if u look at line moves...anyhow, good pick last night!! keep it up!
Yes, you're right. It was an error, it should not have been a play, and will not be counted towards the systems totals. On another note, at least I got some extra money in my pocket from that mistake ;)
(betting each game of series) AL = 63-36 (63.64%) +16.47u NL = 40-28 (58.82%) +5.15u Total = 103-64 (61.68%) +21.62u
(Chase) AL = 30-2 (93.75%) +4.21u NL = 20-1 (95.24%) +6.45u Total = 50-3 (94.34%) +10.66u
I'm bailing on the Milwaukee series since the pitching match-up does not favor them tonight.. and they are throwing out a rookie tomorrow. The Twins suck on the road and have injuries, but not going to let Milwaukee burn me again. I hope they win for those who continue the battle.
Still on Pirates tonight.
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I'm bailing on the Milwaukee series since the pitching match-up does not favor them tonight.. and they are throwing out a rookie tomorrow. The Twins suck on the road and have injuries, but not going to let Milwaukee burn me again. I hope they win for those who continue the battle.
Luckily for the Brewers, 2 throwing errors by Twins in bot 8 led to an inside-the-park home run for the win. It's good to be lucky sometimes, cuz the Twins are playing much better than Milwaukee now!
BOL on your singles 2day! I'm playing the opposite 3 lol
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Luckily for the Brewers, 2 throwing errors by Twins in bot 8 led to an inside-the-park home run for the win. It's good to be lucky sometimes, cuz the Twins are playing much better than Milwaukee now!
BOL on your singles 2day! I'm playing the opposite 3 lol
I have
prepared execel spredsheet which uses covers closing lines to test this method.
I know that you are trying to use opening lines but records for previous
seasons are almost same for your records (+/- 1 unit). After many tests I can
say that excel formulas dont make any mistakes and according to this data you
should now have record:
Chase 52-4
Home swept favorites after being dogs are:
05/08/09 CLE fav -129 after losing as +148 which geneates
-10,8 units loss
05/29/09 KC fav -114 after losing as +115 which geneates -11
units loss
06/09/09 MIL fav -136 after losing as +134 which generates
-13,9 units loss
05/12/09 TOR fav -210 after losing as +140 which generates
-15 units loss
According to closing lines your chases results would be only
about +1 unit. Betting each game result whould be about +2,5 units (using wager
-125 means 125$ as a stake) - but I only play 3 games, even if a series is 4
games.
Can you explain wchich one chase did you skip and why? Is it
only a difference between opening and closing line which decides about playing
or not?Did I understand everything
correctly? Looking at this lines above It looks like only KC can be a team
which opening line can be set as a home dog - rest is set to low to change from
dog to favorite.
Results from my spreadsheet from others years (favorite line
<=-104):
2008:
Chase: 113 - 8 and +27 profit, yield 5,5%
Beting each game (but only first 3 games in series 3-5
games, 4th game was skipped):
224-138 and +41,5 units profit, yield 8,2%
2007
Chase: 103 - 3 and +73,2, yield 18,1 % (insane!)
Betting 3 games in series: +33,2 units, yield 7,4%
2006
Chase: 98 - 7 and -12,3 loss
Betting each 3 games in series: 126-111 and -19,9 loss
2005:
Chase: 93 - 9 and -0,5 loss
All :175 - 131 and -0,9 loss
As we can see - one year can be profitable another can make
as very very poor. We must remember that playing progressions on favorites we
can be temporary much more below then we can afford. Playing that way during
hard season we can be temporary or even finally under -40 units or even more
(i.e. 3 games at 3rd level which sometimes happens, and for each one we must
put over 10 units) - which normally ends our career and we stay in the rope on
our neck. I must notice also that last two seasons was very profitable and
almost all methods/systems friendly - I have found 2 others very profitable
methods for this seasons - but for others it wasn't profitable at all.
This are my conclusions for this methods.
Even in your method was very good from 3 last sesons I must
wish to you Good Luck. For this seasons we shoudl remember that although we
have almost half of regular season we have only 23 team series swept at home.
It is little bit abnormal because for each 4 previous seasons at the end there
were 65-70 team sweeps at the end. It means that is very probable that the rest
(about 90 games left, so about 27 series for each team) we will have about 45
home sweeps. So it is very probable that it will be more than 4 sweeps after
beeing dog in previus game - if it happen - you will go down a little bit with
your bankroll. But so far it looks quite nice ;)
Anyway Good Luck ;)
0
Hallo,
I have
prepared execel spredsheet which uses covers closing lines to test this method.
I know that you are trying to use opening lines but records for previous
seasons are almost same for your records (+/- 1 unit). After many tests I can
say that excel formulas dont make any mistakes and according to this data you
should now have record:
Chase 52-4
Home swept favorites after being dogs are:
05/08/09 CLE fav -129 after losing as +148 which geneates
-10,8 units loss
05/29/09 KC fav -114 after losing as +115 which geneates -11
units loss
06/09/09 MIL fav -136 after losing as +134 which generates
-13,9 units loss
05/12/09 TOR fav -210 after losing as +140 which generates
-15 units loss
According to closing lines your chases results would be only
about +1 unit. Betting each game result whould be about +2,5 units (using wager
-125 means 125$ as a stake) - but I only play 3 games, even if a series is 4
games.
Can you explain wchich one chase did you skip and why? Is it
only a difference between opening and closing line which decides about playing
or not?Did I understand everything
correctly? Looking at this lines above It looks like only KC can be a team
which opening line can be set as a home dog - rest is set to low to change from
dog to favorite.
Results from my spreadsheet from others years (favorite line
<=-104):
2008:
Chase: 113 - 8 and +27 profit, yield 5,5%
Beting each game (but only first 3 games in series 3-5
games, 4th game was skipped):
224-138 and +41,5 units profit, yield 8,2%
2007
Chase: 103 - 3 and +73,2, yield 18,1 % (insane!)
Betting 3 games in series: +33,2 units, yield 7,4%
2006
Chase: 98 - 7 and -12,3 loss
Betting each 3 games in series: 126-111 and -19,9 loss
2005:
Chase: 93 - 9 and -0,5 loss
All :175 - 131 and -0,9 loss
As we can see - one year can be profitable another can make
as very very poor. We must remember that playing progressions on favorites we
can be temporary much more below then we can afford. Playing that way during
hard season we can be temporary or even finally under -40 units or even more
(i.e. 3 games at 3rd level which sometimes happens, and for each one we must
put over 10 units) - which normally ends our career and we stay in the rope on
our neck. I must notice also that last two seasons was very profitable and
almost all methods/systems friendly - I have found 2 others very profitable
methods for this seasons - but for others it wasn't profitable at all.
This are my conclusions for this methods.
Even in your method was very good from 3 last sesons I must
wish to you Good Luck. For this seasons we shoudl remember that although we
have almost half of regular season we have only 23 team series swept at home.
It is little bit abnormal because for each 4 previous seasons at the end there
were 65-70 team sweeps at the end. It means that is very probable that the rest
(about 90 games left, so about 27 series for each team) we will have about 45
home sweeps. So it is very probable that it will be more than 4 sweeps after
beeing dog in previus game - if it happen - you will go down a little bit with
your bankroll. But so far it looks quite nice ;)
I have prepared execel spredsheet which uses covers closing lines to test this method. I know that you are trying to use opening lines but records for previous seasons are almost same for your records (+/- 1 unit). After many tests I can say that excel formulas dont make any mistakes and according to this data you should now have record:
Chase 52-4
Home swept favorites after being dogs are:
05/08/09 CLE fav -129 after losing as +148 which geneates -10,8 units loss
05/29/09 KC fav -114 after losing as +115 which geneates -11 units loss
06/09/09 MIL fav -136 after losing as +134 which generates -13,9 units loss
05/12/09 TOR fav -210 after losing as +140 which generates -15 units loss
According to closing lines your chases results would be only about +1 unit. Betting each game result whould be about +2,5 units (using wager -125 means 125$ as a stake) - but I only play 3 games, even if a series is 4 games.
Can you explain wchich one chase did you skip and why? Is it only a difference between opening and closing line which decides about playing or not?Did I understand everything correctly? Looking at this lines above It looks like only KC can be a team which opening line can be set as a home dog - rest is set to low to change from dog to favorite.
Results from my spreadsheet from others years (favorite line <=-104):
2008:
Chase: 113 - 8 and +27 profit, yield 5,5%
Beting each game (but only first 3 games in series 3-5 games, 4th game was skipped):
224-138 and +41,5 units profit, yield 8,2%
2007
Chase: 103 - 3 and +73,2, yield 18,1 % (insane!)
Betting 3 games in series: +33,2 units, yield 7,4%
2006
Chase: 98 - 7 and -12,3 loss
Betting each 3 games in series: 126-111 and -19,9 loss
2005:
Chase: 93 - 9 and -0,5 loss
All :175 - 131 and -0,9 loss
As we can see - one year can be profitable another can make as very very poor. We must remember that playing progressions on favorites we can be temporary much more below then we can afford. Playing that way during hard season we can be temporary or even finally under -40 units or even more (i.e. 3 games at 3rd level which sometimes happens, and for each one we must put over 10 units) - which normally ends our career and we stay in the rope on our neck. I must notice also that last two seasons was very profitable and almost all methods/systems friendly - I have found 2 others very profitable methods for this seasons - but for others it wasn't profitable at all.
This are my conclusions for this methods.
Even in your method was very good from 3 last sesons I must wish to you Good Luck. For this seasons we shoudl remember that although we have almost half of regular season we have only 23 team series swept at home. It is little bit abnormal because for each 4 previous seasons at the end there were 65-70 team sweeps at the end. It means that is very probable that the rest (about 90 games left, so about 27 series for each team) we will have about 45 home sweeps. So it is very probable that it will be more than 4 sweeps after beeing dog in previus game - if it happen - you will go down a little bit with your bankroll. But so far it looks quite nice ;)
Anyway Good Luck ;)
Please contact SN pertaining to your research, impressive
0
Quote Originally Posted by insaner:
Hallo,
I have prepared execel spredsheet which uses covers closing lines to test this method. I know that you are trying to use opening lines but records for previous seasons are almost same for your records (+/- 1 unit). After many tests I can say that excel formulas dont make any mistakes and according to this data you should now have record:
Chase 52-4
Home swept favorites after being dogs are:
05/08/09 CLE fav -129 after losing as +148 which geneates -10,8 units loss
05/29/09 KC fav -114 after losing as +115 which geneates -11 units loss
06/09/09 MIL fav -136 after losing as +134 which generates -13,9 units loss
05/12/09 TOR fav -210 after losing as +140 which generates -15 units loss
According to closing lines your chases results would be only about +1 unit. Betting each game result whould be about +2,5 units (using wager -125 means 125$ as a stake) - but I only play 3 games, even if a series is 4 games.
Can you explain wchich one chase did you skip and why? Is it only a difference between opening and closing line which decides about playing or not?Did I understand everything correctly? Looking at this lines above It looks like only KC can be a team which opening line can be set as a home dog - rest is set to low to change from dog to favorite.
Results from my spreadsheet from others years (favorite line <=-104):
2008:
Chase: 113 - 8 and +27 profit, yield 5,5%
Beting each game (but only first 3 games in series 3-5 games, 4th game was skipped):
224-138 and +41,5 units profit, yield 8,2%
2007
Chase: 103 - 3 and +73,2, yield 18,1 % (insane!)
Betting 3 games in series: +33,2 units, yield 7,4%
2006
Chase: 98 - 7 and -12,3 loss
Betting each 3 games in series: 126-111 and -19,9 loss
2005:
Chase: 93 - 9 and -0,5 loss
All :175 - 131 and -0,9 loss
As we can see - one year can be profitable another can make as very very poor. We must remember that playing progressions on favorites we can be temporary much more below then we can afford. Playing that way during hard season we can be temporary or even finally under -40 units or even more (i.e. 3 games at 3rd level which sometimes happens, and for each one we must put over 10 units) - which normally ends our career and we stay in the rope on our neck. I must notice also that last two seasons was very profitable and almost all methods/systems friendly - I have found 2 others very profitable methods for this seasons - but for others it wasn't profitable at all.
This are my conclusions for this methods.
Even in your method was very good from 3 last sesons I must wish to you Good Luck. For this seasons we shoudl remember that although we have almost half of regular season we have only 23 team series swept at home. It is little bit abnormal because for each 4 previous seasons at the end there were 65-70 team sweeps at the end. It means that is very probable that the rest (about 90 games left, so about 27 series for each team) we will have about 45 home sweeps. So it is very probable that it will be more than 4 sweeps after beeing dog in previus game - if it happen - you will go down a little bit with your bankroll. But so far it looks quite nice ;)
Anyway Good Luck ;)
Please contact SN pertaining to your research, impressive
GL Kemosabe
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