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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Help with building a strategy

    orhane
    thirdperson
    Participants:
    Search model icon
    Views: 1233
    Posts: 8
     
    orhane
    orhane
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 243
    Posted: Dec. 2, 2012 - 10:26 PM ET #1

    Hi everyone I am backtesting a strategy on US Sports and need to develop a database. My problem is that I do it manually for now and it took me like ages to capture the data of the current NBA Season.

    Well all the Data I need is here in the Covers Website. Is there any chance someone can help me getting the information in an easier way?

    To give a bit of inside to my system. It depends on the variation of 3 things:
    Consensus Picks
    Expert Picks
    10% Picks
    Line Movement

    So far the system has great results.
    I put the data in a spreadsheet but only by hand.
    200 Matches so far and an overall record of:

    ATS
    79 Won
    67 Lost
    8,05 Profit
    Yield: 5,51%

    Over/Under:
    124 Won
    91 Lost
    26,81 Profit
    Yield: 12,47%

    So if I can backtest it long enough maybe there is something we can get from this.

    Kind regards and thank you for your help
    Reply
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Hi everyone I am backtesting a strategy on US Sports and need to develop a database. My problem is that I do it manually for now and it took me like ages to capture the data of the current NBA Season.

    Well all the Data I need is here in the Covers Website. Is there any chance someone can help me getting the information in an easier way?

    To give a bit of inside to my system. It depends on the variation of 3 things:
    Consensus Picks
    Expert Picks
    10% Picks
    Line Movement

    So far the system has great results.
    I put the data in a spreadsheet but only by hand.
    200 Matches so far and an overall record of:

    ATS
    79 Won
    67 Lost
    8,05 Profit
    Yield: 5,51%

    Over/Under:
    124 Won
    91 Lost
    26,81 Profit
    Yield: 12,47%

    So if I can backtest it long enough maybe there is something we can get from this.

    Kind regards and thank you for your help
     
    thirdperson
    thirdperson
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2005
    Posts: 9416
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2012 - 7:58 PM ET #2

    Homework affects success as with other things in life.  Yields for totals ATS seem more impressive than for sides ATS.  200 may already be a big enough sample size to prove system works in the long term.  If you still want more analysis, perhaps some volunteers might emerge to help if you explain what research you need and how to do it?
    Reply
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    Homework affects success as with other things in life.  Yields for totals ATS seem more impressive than for sides ATS.  200 may already be a big enough sample size to prove system works in the long term.  If you still want more analysis, perhaps some volunteers might emerge to help if you explain what research you need and how to do it?
     
    orhane
    orhane
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 243
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2012 - 8:28 PM ET #3

    Thanks for your answer,

    my System is based on the percentage difference between the consensus and experts opinion here on covers.com.

    i created a rating system based on the opinion in general and for the one of the experts. depending on the standard deviation of last season's results, i took only a game in account if the difference between "over and under" or "home and away" picks are differing enough.

    it sounds a bit complicated. but it works well with a small excel formula. now what i want to do is, back test this strategy long enough and transfer it to other sports like hockey, football, college baseball etc.

    on friday for example the system generated these picks with an awesome 11-0 ATS and 6-5 on Totals.

    Brooklyn NetsToronto Raptors Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics New York Knicks Memphis Grizzlies Minnesota Timberwolves Oklahoma City Thunder Sacramento Kings Los Angeles Lakers 
    4,0 186,0 Away Over
    Phoenix Suns -2,5 198,5 Home Over
    Cleveland Cavaliers -9,0 189,5 Away Over
    Portland Trailblazers -5,0 192,0 Home Under
    Washington Wizards -12,5 190,0 Home Over
    Detroit Pistons -11,0 189,0 Home Over
    Milwaukee Bucks -2,5 194,5 Home Under
    Utah Jazz -9,0 202,5 Home Over
    Indiana Pacers 1,5 188,5 Away Over
    Denver Nuggets -5,0 204,5 Home Over
    Reply
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    Thanks for your answer,

    my System is based on the percentage difference between the consensus and experts opinion here on covers.com.

    i created a rating system based on the opinion in general and for the one of the experts. depending on the standard deviation of last season's results, i took only a game in account if the difference between "over and under" or "home and away" picks are differing enough.

    it sounds a bit complicated. but it works well with a small excel formula. now what i want to do is, back test this strategy long enough and transfer it to other sports like hockey, football, college baseball etc.

    on friday for example the system generated these picks with an awesome 11-0 ATS and 6-5 on Totals.

    Brooklyn NetsToronto Raptors Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics New York Knicks Memphis Grizzlies Minnesota Timberwolves Oklahoma City Thunder Sacramento Kings Los Angeles Lakers 
    4,0 186,0 Away Over
    Phoenix Suns -2,5 198,5 Home Over
    Cleveland Cavaliers -9,0 189,5 Away Over
    Portland Trailblazers -5,0 192,0 Home Under
    Washington Wizards -12,5 190,0 Home Over
    Detroit Pistons -11,0 189,0 Home Over
    Milwaukee Bucks -2,5 194,5 Home Under
    Utah Jazz -9,0 202,5 Home Over
    Indiana Pacers 1,5 188,5 Away Over
    Denver Nuggets -5,0 204,5 Home Over
     
    orhane
    orhane
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 243
    Posted: Dec. 5, 2012 - 8:28 PM ET #4

    something went wrong with the message, i wanted to post the picks
    Reply
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    something went wrong with the message, i wanted to post the picks
     
    orhane
    orhane
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 243
    Posted: Dec. 19, 2012 - 11:38 PM ET #5

    The system works for the NCAA, but is not working so far for the NBA. If anyone knows how to get in touch with the guys from covers. I'd like to do some research on their database, but at the same time I can understand if they do not want to share their buisness with me.
    Reply
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    Report User
    The system works for the NCAA, but is not working so far for the NBA. If anyone knows how to get in touch with the guys from covers. I'd like to do some research on their database, but at the same time I can understand if they do not want to share their buisness with me.
     
    orhane
    orhane
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 243
    Posted: Dec. 19, 2012 - 11:38 PM ET #6

    https://nash13.blogabet.com/
    for anyone interested, here i try to keep track with my picks.
    Reply
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    https://nash13.blogabet.com/
    for anyone interested, here i try to keep track with my picks.
     
    orhane
    orhane
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 243
    Posted: Dec. 22, 2012 - 9:10 PM ET #7

    13% yield on 183 NCAA Basketball picks so far.
    The system does NOT work for NBA as far as i can see.
    Reply
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    13% yield on 183 NCAA Basketball picks so far.
    The system does NOT work for NBA as far as i can see.
     
     
    orhane
    orhane
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Dec, 2012
    Posts: 243
    Posted: Feb. 3, 2013 - 1:33 AM ET #8

    for further backtesting i have to get the data from covers. for now i do it with copy and paste.
    the results for my system since beginning:
    NBA
    ATS: 334-288
    TOT: 360-316
    Total Profit: 48,36

    NHL
    ML: 60-31
    Profit: 14,84

    it would be nice to go further back in time. but this requests a lot of technical knowledge. and i don't have it, so i do it manually with copy and paste.

    Reply
    Quote Post
    0
    Report User
    for further backtesting i have to get the data from covers. for now i do it with copy and paste.
    the results for my system since beginning:
    NBA
    ATS: 334-288
    TOT: 360-316
    Total Profit: 48,36

    NHL
    ML: 60-31
    Profit: 14,84

    it would be nice to go further back in time. but this requests a lot of technical knowledge. and i don't have it, so i do it manually with copy and paste.

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