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Handicapping formula???

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Prospect
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Joined: Oct, 2010
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Posted: #1
Hey everyone, Im a novice casual sports better, but I do well, always have been better than 50% but I dont take alot of chances for big payoffs... but recently Ive been kind of interested in the, like proper mathamatical side of handicapping... I just bet now on gut feel for the games...

... Does anyone know a good website that has info on like, different standard formulas and such, to learn that side of the handicapping art???

 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #2

I don't know of a site that will come off thier formulas.  Kinda of trade secerets. 

Start out by looking at power ratings.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
I dont know much of it... I was just kind of assuming there was a basic standard thing... then everyone just kind of went off and improved on to make their own
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1889
Posted: #4

Check out kenpom.com great site for basketball, contains some excellent information on developing your own formulas.

Read Michael Murray's Betting Baseball.

Be really good with excel!

 
Banned
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Joined: Jan, 2009
Posts: 1479
Posted: #5
check these out

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/



https://sportsgambling.about.com/bio/Allen-Moody-32500.htm?nl=1

https://www.killersports.com/
 
Veteran
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Posted: #6
Here is a basic formula:

(Away Team PS+Home Team PA)/2= Away Team Points Scored

(Home Team PS+Away Team PA)/2=Home Team Points Scored

i.e Philadelphia at Seattle

Philadelphia's Away PS= 25 Away PA=20

Seattle's Home PS=18 Home PA=23

Philadelphia's Score= (25+23)/2=(48)/2=24

Seattle's Score= (18+20)/2=(38)/2=19

Philadelphia should win by 5 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #7
Here is my "quickie" method for a spread prediction.

(Highest ASM Team -Lowest ASM Team)/2=Projected Spread

ASM= Average Scoring Margin=(PS-PA)

i.e 

Philadelphia's ASM= 25-20= 5 

Seattle's ASM= 18-23=-5

Projected Spread= (5- - 5)/2=(10)/2=5

The projected spread is Philadelphia by 5.

This "quickie" system will not give you a projected score just a spread.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #8
Football Model:

First Step:

Produce the Away/Home Team's OYPPT:

OYPPT= Offense Yards Per Point

Away Team's OYPPT= Away Team's Total Yards For/Away Team's PS

Home Team's OYPPT= Home Team's Total Yards For/Home Team's PS

Second Step

Away Team's Projected Score= Home Team's Total Yards For/Away Team's OYPPT

Home Team's Projected Score=Away Team's Total Yards For/Home Team's OYPPT


 
Veteran
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Posted: #9
Football Model

i.e Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Cleveland's Away PS= 17 Cleveland's Away Total Yards For= 261
Cleveland Away Total Yards Against= 346

Pittsburgh's Home PS=27 Pittsburgh's Home Total Yards For=389
Pittsburgh's Home Total Yards Against= 247

First Step:

Cleveland's Away OYPPT=261/17=15.35 

Pittsburgh's Home  OYPPT=389/27=14.41

Second Step:

Cleveland's Away Projected Score=247/15.35=16 (rounded down .50)

Pittsburgh's Home Projected Score=346/14.41=24 (rounded down .50)

Cleveland 16 Pittsburgh 24 Pittsburgh by 8
 
Veteran
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Posted: #10
ATS Probability:

Away Team's ATS Probability=(Away Team's Spread Wins+Home Team's Spread Losses)/Total Games

Home Team's ATS Probability=(Home Team's Spread Wins+Away Team's ATS Losses)/Total Games

 
Veteran
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Posted: #11
i.e Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Cleveland's Away ATS Wins= 2

Cleveland's Away ATS Losses=3

Pittsburgh's Home ATS Wins= 4

Pittsburgh's Home ATS Losses=2

Cleveland's Away ATS Probability= (2+2)/11=4/11=.36

Pittsburgh's Home ATS Probability=(4+3)/11=7/11=.64

Pittsburgh has a 64% chance to cover the spread. The football model and the ATS probability calculation do not match on the spread. You need to bet with caution. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
cool thanks guy ... I learned a few things picking threw all this
 
Veteran
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Posted: #13
Here is a basic formula:

(Away Team PS+Home Team PA)/2= Away Team Points Scored

(Home Team PS+Away Team PA)/2=Home Team Points Scored

i.e Philadelphia at Seattle

Philadelphia's Away PS= 25 Away PA=20

Seattle's Home PS=18 Home PA=23

Philadelphia's Score= (25+23)/2=(48)/2=24

Seattle's Score= (18+20)/2=(38)/2=19

Philadelphia should win by 5 
 
Here is an adjustment to my model for basketball.
 
LAVG=X
 
Road Team's Offensive Rating= Road Team's PS/X
 
Road Team's Defensive Rating=Road Team's PA/X
 
Home Team's Offensive Rating=Home Team's PS/X
 
Home Team's Defensive Rating= Home Team's PA/X
 
Road Team's Performance Rating= (Road Team's Offensive Rating+Home Team's Defensive Rating)/2
 
Home Team's Performance Rating=(Home Team's Offensive Rating+Road Team's Defensive Rating)/2
 
Road Team's Base Offense=(Road Team's PS+Home Team's PA)/2
 
Home Team's Base Offense=(Home Team's PS+Road Team's PA)/2
 
Road Team's Projected Score= Road Team's Base Offense* Road Team's Performance Rating
 
Home Team's Projected Score=Home Team's Base Offense*Home Team's Performance Rating
 
i.e
 
NBA's League Average=95
 
LA Clippers at Portland
 
LA Clippers PS=97 PA=97
 
Portland PS=105 PA=94
 
LA Clippers' Offensive Rating= (97/95)=1.02
LA Clippers' Defensive Rating=(97/95)=1.02
 
Portland's Offensive Rating=(105/95)=1.10
Portland's Defensive Rating=(94/95)=.99
 
LA Clippers' Performance Rating=(1.02+.99)/2=1.00
Portland's Performance Rating=(1.10+1.02)/2=1.06
 
LA Clippers' Base Offense=(97+94)/2=96
Portland's Base Offense=(105+97)/2=101
 
LA Clippers' Projected Score=96*1.00=96
Portland's Projected Score=101*1.06=107
 
Portland by 11; 206 points
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
There are thousands of approaches and mostly none of them work. 
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