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Grus: Home Again System (NBA)

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Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #1

I'll be sharing and tracking one of my systems here this season. This system have had NO LOSSES the last two seasons, and have showed to be very profitable for me. But it is only back-checked for those two seasons, so please use caution if you choose to follow this system.

Find a team that have had a road trip of 3+ games, and returns home for atleast 3 consecutive games. Chase this team buying points against the spread for a maximum of 4 games. Teams with a winning percentage I chase after road trips of only 2+ games. I apply some filters, but mainly this is it.

This chase always starts one month into the season. Let me know if you have any questions.

(Mod can remove other thread, as I messed up the title)

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #2

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 0-0
Profit/Loss: +0.00 units
Ongoing Series: 0 

HA Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

First chase will start on Saturday.

 
Prospect
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Joined: Jan, 2018
Posts: 187
Posted: #3

Have you data from previous years to test your theory?  Have NBA data from 2013, might try this and note the results.  What do you use as your database?

 
Prospect
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Posts: 168
Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by NevadaBet:

Have you data from previous years to test your theory?  Have NBA data from 2013, might try this and note the results.  What do you use as your database?

 

It is back-checked for 2016/2017 and 2017/2018. with betting data provided from Oddsportal. But I don't have data to provide here in the forums. You can try and note the results if you'd like. I'd gladly answer questions if you have any.

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #5

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 0-0
Profit/Loss: +0.00 units
Ongoing Series: 0 

HA Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Chase 11/17/18:
#1 76ers @ Hornets (M/L) [A/C] 1.5U

 
Prospect
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Posts: 168
Posted: #6
 

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 0-0
Profit/Loss: +0.00 units
Ongoing Series: 1 (Hornets) 

HA Plays
[A] 0-1
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Results:
#1 Hornets (M/L) [A/C] LOSS

There are no system plays for 11/18/18

#1 will resume on 11/19/18
#2 will begin on 11/19/18

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #7

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 0-0
Profit/Loss: +0.00 units
Ongoing Series: 1 (Hornets)

HA Plays
[A] 0-1
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Chase 11/19/18:
#1 Celtics @ Hornets (+5.5) [B/C] 4U
#2 Clippers @ Hawks (+8.5) [A/D] 1.5U

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2257
Posted: #8

How many points are you buying? 

All about the chase
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #9

Quote Originally Posted by jaime2309:

How many points are you buying?

The system actually covers not buying points, but I will look to buy 1-3 points depending on value. Due to the firm set of games in the system I will avoid buying points that can push. Buy another half then.

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2257
Posted: #10

Just my two cents, but you should list how many points you’re buying and what the betting line is (ex.-150). It can get kind of confusing. Where did you get your data from? 

All about the chase
 
Prospect
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Posts: 168
Posted: #11

Quote Originally Posted by jaime2309:

Just my two cents, but you should list how many points you’re buying and what the betting line is (ex.-150). It can get kind of confusing. Where did you get your data from?

I am based in Europe, so not familiar with the American odds. I use decimals. But I can definitely list how many points I am buying.

Appreciate the feedback.

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #12

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 2-0
Profit/Loss: +2.39 units
Ongoing Series: 0

HA Plays
[A] 1-1
[B] 1-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Results:
#1 Hornets (+5.5) [B/C] WIN
#2 Hawks (+8.5) [A/D] WIN

There are no system plays for 11/20/18

#3 will begin on 11/21/18

 
Prospect
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Joined: Dec, 2012
Posts: 243
Posted: #13

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=site%20streak%20%3C%3D%20-3%20and%20n%3Asite%20streak%20%3D%201%20and%20n2%3Asite%20streak%20%3D%202%20and%20n3%3Asite%20streak%20%3D%203&output=summary

here is how you can identify the first game of the series. the first link identifies teams coming of a 3+ road trip and playing their first game at home: ATS record is 496-511.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=p%3Asite+streak+%3C%3D+-3+and+site+streak+%3D+1+and+n%3Asite+streak+%3D+2+and+n2%3Asite+streak+%3D+3+and+p%3AATSL&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

this provides the teams loosing that specific game on ATS in the first game of the chase and so on.

i like to share this to show that chase systems are flawed once you can not provide winners on ATS as singles.

 
this i not against you or your system, just want to point out the risks.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1818
Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by jaime2309:

Just my two cents, but you should list how many points you’re buying and what the betting line is (ex.-150). It can get kind of confusing. Where did you get your data from?

 

Don't think he is buying points.  He is taking the ML if FAV and taking the points (ATS) if DOG

 
Veteran
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Posts: 1818
Posted: #15

Sorry my bad.  Seems like he did buy 2 points on Hornets & Hawks

 
Veteran
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Posts: 2257
Posted: #16

System is interesting but if you’re buying points the juice you are laying is at min -150 every bet. Without the stats to back it up , not sure how this does in the long run. 

All about the chase
 
Prospect
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Posts: 168
Posted: #17

Of course, thank you for the SDQL orhane. It doesn't have some of my filters, but I do appreciate the data.

Quote Originally Posted by jaime2309:

System is interesting but if you’re buying points the juice you are laying is at min -150 every bet. Without the stats to back it up , not sure how this does in the long run.

System has no losses last two seasons, without buying points. Sometimes I won't be buying, I am going for value and will outline how many points I am buying for here on out. I am buying points because even though I hope it goes unbeaten for the third straight season, nothing is for certain obviously.

I am not asking people to blindly follow it. Use it as guidance, or however you'd like.

 

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #18

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 2-0
Profit/Loss: +2.39 units
Ongoing Series: 0

HA Plays
[A] 1-1
[B] 1-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Chase 11/21/18:
#3 Thunder @ Warriors (M/L) [A/D] 1U

 

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #19
 

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 2-0
Profit/Loss: +2.39 units
Ongoing Series: 1 (Warriors)

HA Plays
[A] 1-2
[B] 1-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Results 11/21/18:
#3 Warriors (M/L) [A/D] LOSS

There are no system plays for 11/22/18

#3 will resume on 11/23/18
#4 will begin on 11/23/18

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #20

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 2-0
Profit/Loss: +2.39 units
Ongoing Series: 1 (Warriors)

HA Plays
[A] 1-2
[B] 1-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Chase 11/23/18:
#3 Trail Blazers @ Warriors (M/L) [B/D] 2.5U
#4 Hornets @ Thunder (M/L) [A/D] 2U

 
Prospect
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Posts: 168
Posted: #21
 

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 4-0
Profit/Loss: +4.44 units
Ongoing Series: 0

HA Plays
[A] 2-2
[B] 2-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Results 11/23/18:
#3 Warriors (M/L) [B/D] WIN
#4 Thunder (M/L) [A/D] WIN

There are no system plays for 11/24/18

#5 will begin on 11/25/18
#6 will begin on 11/25/18 (HAx)

 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #22

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 4-0
Profit/Loss: +4.44 units
Ongoing Series: 0

HA Plays
[A] 2-2
[B] 2-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-0
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Chase 11/25/18:
#3 Jazz @ Kings (+6.5) [A/C HAx] 2U - buying 3 points
#4 Clippers @ Trail Blazers (M/L) [A/C] 2U

 
Rookie
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Posts: 747
Posted: #23

Hey man, Sacramento Kings have been to road for only one game. And you are chasing them already? why?

 
Prospect
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Posts: 168
Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by North-Japan:

Hey man, Sacramento Kings have been to road for only one game. And you are chasing them already? why?

It is the other system (HAx), where teams on winning record only needs two road games to qualify.

 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Nov, 2018
Posts: 168
Posted: #25

Home Again System 2018/2019
Overall record: 4-0
Profit/Loss: +4.44 units
Ongoing Series: 2 (Kings, Trail Blazers)

HA Plays
[A] 2-3
[B] 2-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

HAx Plays
[A] 0-1
[B] 0-0
[C] 0-0
[D] 0-0
Losses: 0

Results 11/25/18:
#5 Kings (+6.5) [A/C HAx] LOSS
#6 Trail Blazers (M/L) [A/C] LOSS

There are no system plays between 11/26/18 - 11/27/18

#5 will resume on 11/28/18
#6 will resume on 11/29/18 (HAx)

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