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General Betting: when a sample is sufficiently reliable?

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Posts: 6

The_MathMan

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 10

Posted: Sep. 21, 2010 - 4:30 AM ET #1

Hi, my friends!

I'm working on a criteria selection (in this case is on MLB, but for my question isn't important) and after some test, i have started a real testing with an 100 euro bank and a 2% bank stake.
Now, after 850-900 bets (selected from the 2250 games of this season), my bank is 140 euro with a 394-344-0 hit rate (53.39% win%).
Is this sample enought to say that my system work?
generally when a sample is sufficiently reliable?

kreatture

Veteran

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 2312

Posted: Sep. 21, 2010 - 11:56 PM ET #2

Win % is shit.. why do people keep posting this USELESS number..

What kind of odds are you playing??
Are all your bets the same amount??

A 53 win % at -130 odds on average is a waste of time..

The question is, have you assigned a Unit Value to each of these 738 bets, and how many UNITS are you +/- ??

Units is the ONLY thing which matters.. I could care less if you say you hit 80% and win a bunch of -105 games but lose a couple of -500 games.

Re-write your Question please..

The_MathMan

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 10

Posted: Sep. 22, 2010 - 4:26 AM ET #3

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Win % is shit.. why do people keep posting this USELESS number..

What kind of odds are you playing??
Are all your bets the same amount??

A 53 win % at -130 odds on average is a waste of time..

The question is, have you assigned a Unit Value to each of these 738 bets, and how many UNITS are you +/- ??

Units is the ONLY thing which matters.. I could care less if you say you hit 80% and win a bunch of -105 games but lose a couple of -500 games.

Re-write your Question please..

yes, kreatture,

you are right, sorry but i'm a beginner and some info was assumed for me.
My data are referred to 1 unit bets, my starting bank was 50 units and after 900 bets my bank is now 70 units.

Using this info is easy to calc the ROI for my bets (20 /900= 2,3 %) so, if you know the ROI you don't need for the averange quote.

Now, the question is:

Betting regurally, on 900 bets, i succeed to make a little value.
But is this sample sufficiently reliable?

kkirby99

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 1175

Posted: Sep. 22, 2010 - 1:51 PM ET #4

kreature, I disagree that the win % is useless because it gives you an indication of how fast you will clear Labby lines if you are using those for money management. Win % should be used in conjunction with the juice to determine if a method is going to be successful.

kreatture

Veteran

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 2312

Posted: Sep. 23, 2010 - 12:49 AM ET #5

Entitled to ur opinion.. even if it's wrong.

kkirby99

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2007

Posts: 1175

Posted: Sep. 23, 2010 - 1:10 AM ET #6

My bankroll disagrees with you. I have no trouble laying -135 when I know I'm going to hit 64% using correlated parlays and Lab lines.

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