I would checkout statfox.com - they have data organized by home and away.....it may make life easier for you. For the record, I've looked at games trying to handicap....with PF and PA.....I wasn't very successful....however, when I broke it down....to the components....I found the following worked better: Base everything on home and away:
1. Print out the opening lines - donbest.com
2. Go to stat fox and look up home and away data - and record assists/turnovers - group team into 4 categories: -/+ , -/-, +/+, +/-
3. Write down the shooting percentage def. of each team - home and away.
4. Write down Sagarin rank and sagarin sched. strength (sagarin.com)
5. Develop a spreadsheet and record the patterns.....take notes....find patterns that work.
6. I'll give you one that s very consistent:
7. Ncgrnsb 10.3 15.9 (-) 310 309 (619) 45%
11.5 Woff 14.6 11.7 (+) 191 291 (482) 42%
We have ncgrns playing Wofford. Woff. opens up as a 11.5 favorite. Ncgrns. has a negative assist to turnover ratio while on the road, their sagarin rank is 310 and sched. rank is 309. They allow their opp. to shoot 45% while on the road. Woff. on the other hand - has a positive assist to turnover ratio. They are rank 191 and sched. strength is 291. They allow their opp. to shoot 42%. At this stage you would think Woff. should kill them.....unfortunately it's not that simple. Historically - when you have a team like woff. who is better in all categories (+ assist/turnover, better in both sagarin rank and sched. strength and better shooting per. def.)....playing a team that has a 600 sagarin total and is favored by double digits.......take the away team. This pattern has proved itself numerous times this year.
Anyways - good luck to you.
Hi, Buddah, I appreciate your help however I have a couple of questions and would be much oblige if you could give me some more explanations as to the following items:
2. Go to stat fox and look up home and away data - and record assists/turnovers - group team into 4 categories: -/+ , -/-, +/+, +/-
you said four groups, the first one is assist/turnovers, and what are the other three and where exactly can find those numbers by games played home or on the road (if of'course the home and the away teams are groupped in one place as some kind of matchup)
3. Write down the shooting percentage def. of each team - home and away.
shooting percentage vs defensive power ?
and in your example numers 10.3 and 15.9 mean what ?:
7. Ncgrnsb 10.3 15.9 (-) 310 309 (619) 45%
Your further help will be highly appreciated, regards
Kazi - no problem.
When you go to donbest.com and click on ncaab odds - they give you the teams listed to be played that day and that's your opening line. The away team is the top team and bottom is home.
2. When you go to stafox your looking at Away/home (click on away then click on home) for off. categories regarding assists and turnovers. For example tonight:
Nd 13.3 9 (+)
11.5 NC 16.8 12.5 (+)
When ND is on the road they avg. 13.3 assists per game and 9 turn overs. Thus a + assist to turn over ratio. Nc is positive as well. It all depends on who is playing and how they play on the road and how they play at home. In the Ncgrnsbor. example - they happen to have a negative assist to turn over ration - thus the - for them and positive for woff. thus a -/+ situation.
On my spreadsheet I collect I would have 4 possible categories where the ND/NC game result would reside. In this case it would be categorized in the +/+ section under 11.5 line.
3. shooting percentage def. is under the def. categories both respective to away/home. With ND/NC - it's 47.5/39.7
The 310 309 # come from sagarins website sagarin.com
Your doing an apple to apple comparison using the opening line and following history. In our original example:
Ncgrnsb 10.3 15.9 (-) 310 309 (619) 45%
11.5 Woff 14.6 11.7 (+) 191 291 (482) 42%
In my master spreadsheet I would record the above like this:
- WS WS WD Ncgr A gm (This means the top team won)
+ 11.5 BS BS BD3 Woff Bd3
Next time there is a game with these characteristics I have something to refer to. This means we have a -/+ situation (i'd go to that section of my spreadsheet) and then scroll down to the 11.5 lines. Then look for a situation that has BS (better sagarin) rank; Better schedule rank; Better def. rank by 3 percentage points and do what history has indicated. Because I've been ding this a while - I have a pretty big spreadsheet.....your starting fresh.....your just trying to mimic history. Everything comes from 3 websites - donbest.com, statfox.com and sagarin.com.
It takes a effort but it's better than guessing.
Kazi,
Let's make sure we are clear regarding 600 dogs: If the home team has a positive assist to turnover ratio, they have a totl sagarin that is not a 600 total, they are favored by double digits, they are better in sagarin rank, sagarin schedule strength and have a better defense - then you take the away team if they have a 600 sagarin total.
For the 600 scenario - that's what I do. I don't record those situations...I look them up on a daily basis -if there there I play them if not I don't. It is cumbersome and you will figure out what to record and what's not needed as you go along.
the numbers from the website I mentioned are updated daily - the numbers you looked up were after the fact and might have changed slightly. Here's a game for today:
UCF 10.9 13.4 (-) 173 69 48.9
4.5 Temp 14.2 9.8 (+) 156 39 49.9
Just to be sure I went to statfox and verified the numbers are the same as my program - they are the same.
Based on the above i'm going to the category -/+ with a 4.5 line
I'm searching for this particular situation:
Away team (UCF): WS WS BD1
Home team (temp): BS BS WD
In my master spreadsheet I found two situations that match the above. This is me inputting the data into the master spreadsheet (that's the pain in the behind part of this).....in the previous situations....it indicates the away team won the game outright and also covered the f/h. I think ucf should get the cover for the f/h and the game and possibly win su. So I go with UCF tonite.
All your doing is mimicking history - considering the line and what you consider to be the key drivers in a game. The more data you collect the better patterns you will find - such as the 600 one listed above. there's no guarantees with this but it allows you to see where you might have an edge and where you may not. For example, if i'd gone to my master spreadsheet and saw there was no data for this scenario or the data was mixed....one was a winner and one was a loser....I would know to avoid this game until I got more data. Make sense?
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