Correct me if I am wrong- Parlay question

Over my last 5 years i have made just over 500 NFL bets

350 regular plays

125 large plays

25 max plays                 give or take

 

Only once have my max wagers fallen on the same date and time (ex. both sunday at 1).  However, The large plays do occasionally fall on the same day/time.  Over these 5 years the large plays have won at 57.48% of the time or 57.5%. This average is slighly higher over the last3 years but 5 years is just a larger sample size and one could always cool off regarless of hard work, stategy, and theory.  My question is hitting at an avergae of 57.5 on what my handicapping procedure considers a large wager, does it make sence to play these games in a 2 team parlay. 

 

I'm thinking yes, but Im not ging to start this without knowing I am 100% mathematically correct because i will NEVER have my omney in a matematically  "wrong" situation.  I will (often) make a stupid bet but I will not be fundaentally wrong in anything I do from a gambling sence. 

 

.575*.575= .330625     or     33%  

       a parlay of 2 large wagers will cash 33% of the time.  With a win % of 33% one would need to be betting into a line of +200 to break even.  Is this correct.  Seeing that sportsbooks - even the shit ones typically pay and average of +250 -+260 and some much much better- the odds seem to be drastically in my favor. 

 

 

again this seems simple to me but running this past the minds of others as a way of double checking is just smart IMO.  If i am missing something i would rather someone lauagh at me now than have my books laughing the rest of the season.

 

Thanks in advance

Subjective handicapping is something I am very good at.  I learned everything I know about gambling from my father years back but math was not his forte.  Some guys on this site have been extremely helpfull in that area. 

 

Also does anyone know the best books for parlay odds.  Is there any books available that offer tru odds parlays? Someone could save me some time with that be helpfull

 

by this math a 55% handicapper will cash his parlay ticket 30% of the time.  Thus a line of +230 will be the break even point. 

 

giving the handicapper a large adavtange in term of long term odds.  Seems a littel odd for all the negative shit parlays get and all the talk from respecable handicapper around here that parlays are trash that a 55% handicapper will be getting some serious value by parlaying his wagers.  If they fall on the same date and time that is........

 

mathematically it may seem good in terms of %'s but break it down a little more and you will see why this is not a good idea...

 

your saying you will hit a 2-team parlay 33% of the time

 so lets break it down if you made 100 parlay bets

 33 wins at +260 =  +8580

 77 losses at -110 = -8470

so after 100 bets you only profit $110

hell most locals pay +290 and that only profits $1100

 

seems hardly worth it risking the fact you have to hit 2 in a row

 

either way....bottom line is your going to have to hit at a better % than 57.48% if you want to make some serious coin

 

 

me =

Im talking about this in term of ML. In term of a parlay you are just purchasing a ML package I would say.  So im looking for value and doing this would create a little more value. Just odd with all that talk that parlays are nothing but -EV  when that may not be true. 

 

So even with a 55% handicapper, which is very good....

 

the chance of Team A and Team B both winning is 30% making your "break even" line +230.... If your book offers parlays at a line of +260 there is 30c of value. Its the same a purchasing a a ML dog at +260 that should be around +230. 

 

This does opportunity does not present itself all thatmuch but I wil be taking advantage of it