College Bball help needed

Ive been picking games for a long time now, and I mainly go by a gut feeling.  Sometimes I will back it up with some stats, but I generally manipulate those stats to back up my gut.  I usually end up losing more than I win, or breaking even at seasons end.  Occasionally if the stars line up right I will have a winning season.  So far this college bball season I am in a horrendus slump, so I figured Id break it all down and start from scratch.  Im asking for tips, what do you look at when you cap a game?  What does everyone feel is the most important stat lines,factors, etc.  Thanks.

I have had some ok times with college basketball, but I started out this year on a hot streak. One thing for sure is, my gut feeling does not determine my bets. I look at who they have played and beaten and if I can I try and watch a lot of the games because stats don't always tell the story. When looking at whom they have beaten, look at home/road, injuries, 3pt, etc. Like for example, yesterday when Syracuse played the gators, Cuse is a run and gun team and I dont know much about Florida, but most teams try to keep up instead of establish there pace with them. I took the over based on past stats and won !!!  

Maybe you should ask this question in the college hoops section