Colege Hoops Theory

COLLEGE HOOPS

I like what I read regarding home dogs getting points vs unranked teams in an earlier post. WVU -4 vs UConn was a good example tonight, though a small serving size.

I have been obsessed with home unranked teams vs ranked opponents in general this season. Once Dec 1st rolled around, and the rankings settled a little, it was a very profitable run on home unranked teams vs ranked opponents if you bet it right and applied one of a few betting patterns.

Also, the OVER was a decent lean as well in these situations... which isnt easy to find (a consistent "over" scenario in anything!).

In using the coaches polls as my set for establishing who is ranked top 25, I have tried to gauge results based on 2 lines of criteria-

1- public money. 2- emotional situations

1. public money. lets face it, the ranked teams are going to get the weight in the long run. I like the idea of looking into home unranked teams vs ranked opponents assuming that the value will be there, as the line makers try to entice people off the ranked team... especially when they are favored.

2. emotions- it goes without saying that the college atmosphere will be controlled more by emotional situations, atleast compared to professional sports. My theory on taking the home unranked vs a ranked opponent is simple logic- one only needs to look at the courtside view opposite the benches tonight in the WVU game to understand. The corwd in college hoops SURELY effects the game. But the concept of taking the home unranked team in regards to a favorable emotional situation is deeper than just the crowd.

2a- the players, much like the crowd of the home team, will be "getting up" for this game, no doubt, in the long run. In some cases, you can catch an ranked road team sleeping, looking ahead to a "bigger" game, etc.

2b- officiating. A good read out now is a book titled "SportsCast." Yes, its done in part with a media mogul, I understand that- but it discusses human nature and how it effects officiating. Its not calling out a situation in point fixing- just human nature- basically, if you have 20,000 people who are going to cheer or boo you, which way do you lean? A good example of this logic is the strike zone in baseball- yes, its supposed to be a set box based on the plate and the batters height... but we all know it moves... why? My theory is, in college basketball, you will get a slight lean in your favor in critical situations... ya know, that foul call when the defensive player CLEARLY had his feet set for the charge(See St. Johns @ Villanova, about 3 minutes left in game)... who do you think gets that call?

When we are discussing sports betting, any lean in your direction gets you closer to that 55-60% winner, and thats a helluva living, right??

So, in short, if you look @ the results of taking ALL home unranked teams vs ranked opponents, fav or dog, you will see a favorable #. You will see the same on the over in these games (again, a juiced up home team can help put some tangible logic to the theory).

Again, this is between Dec 1st and Feb 1st. We will call the home unranked team BET A and the OVER BET B.

It was profitable this year, along with bet C and D, which I will get into next. (I recorded the bets on the home team and the over @ a diff website, private message me if you would like the proof).

In the last 3 years, it has been even to slightly over in terms of profit.

Now, I'm not betting real money at this yet- I'm not one of these guys on here who tries to act like I'm living the dream (I'm taking the long road)... but I will be applying filters to see if I can minimize the number of bets to squeeze out maximum potential. I am currently looking into fluctauted weights and betting patterns, along with revenge factor, winning and losing streaks, injuries, etc... all things that either effect the line or effect the emotion.

NOW- take this a strategy a step further- emotions of a team, that is- and lets discuss letdowns.

What would you think a team is likely to do in its next game? My theory is a letdown.

Bet C and D in this logic this season for me was simple- I will post this seperately...

Bet C and D

Bet C and D this year was a FOLLOW UP GAME TO ANY HOME, UNRANKED TEAM THAT WON, STRAIGHT UP, AS AN UNDERDOG.

My theory was, in a sense, a contrarian theory off of Bet A and B. If I am looking at a team getting up for Bet A, and they "over-achieve" based on the line set in Vegas and win straight up as an underdog, what do they do in te next game?

Well, if you follow my logic on Bet A and B, then you can probably figure out that I assumed that the next game would be a letdown game, so I FADED THE ORGINAL TEAM THAT I TOOK ON BET A IN THIER VERY NEXT GAME (BET C). I ALSO TOOK THE UNDER (BET D). I also took it a step further and included the favored team that got beat. While I understand, at first glance, a team that gets upset yet is ranked would be thought of to rebound. Not so fast... I have been a professional youth coach for 10 years now (hockey) and I can tell you from expereience that the team that just lost doesnt just pick themselves back up. A loss to an unranked team can be the perfect chemistry to a follow up letdown...

So, Bet C and D were follow up bets to A and B, BUT NOT AFTER A WIN ATS, ONLY A STRAIGHT UP WIN BY THE UNDERDOG.

I faded both teams in the next game and took the under. Again, I did this from Dec. 1st to Feb 1st... and I can back my stats, for 10-11, upon request. I trackd i on a free site... but you can always go do the dirty work yourself ; ).

Again, this is raw data right now... the amount of bets this/these theories yielded was WAAAAY too high for me to assume this can hold water in the long run- We are talking over 450 bets in 3 months when its all said and done... but I tracked back 2 years and it was slightly profitable each year.

With 450 available bets, I am really looking forward to dissecting the theory throughout the monotiny of baseball season to see if I can trim it down to 200 bets @ 60% winning percentage or better. I will not be incorporating a chase system to it. I also WILL NOT BE POSTING THIS STUFF ANYMORE... But I would love to discuss these things independently with anyone who has read my last 2 posts and would like dive into the theory with me.... filters I am considering include the basics- days rest, all streaks (winning and losing, both ATS, totals and SU, as all 3 can either effect the linemakers or the players and crowd), home and road stretches, injuries and roster activity, rivalry situations, etc etc etc....

One thing that I will be looking into that I noticed had a big effect on the mentality is coaching and the results teams are getting. For example- Izzo is having an odd year. I want to see, based on heritage and tenure of a coach, if I can categorize teams in this situation as well. Naturally, I would have to think that this will only effect the road teams in systems A and B, as you will be hard pressed to see a coach with pedigree and tenure stay out of the top 25 for too long... I mean, why the hell do you think UConn seems to never drop lower than 15????

Have fun guys- I know that this can be confusing, and I also know that it seems... well, rather simple when you think about it... but I bet systems A, B, C and D for the better part of Dec 1st through Feb 1st to track this and provide proof to the theory, whether it turned sour or sweet... for 10-11, it was sweet.... if only my $5 to $20 bets were $500 to $2000 bets!!!

Hy, maybe one day!!! We can all dream, right?! I can promise, I will be thorough in my work to try and make that dream a reality... I mean, I dont know about you, but my 401k looks more like a 101b, and the pension fund is being drained like Hoffa is prez--- we all need a plan for the future!!!
Seriously- only message me if you are serious- I would love some help in the off season to prep for what I am hoping is a secure attack plan for 11-12... lol, and yes, I use the phrase "secure" with a grain of salt-- it can always go from sweet to sour, nothing is garunteed!

-Ryanp26

Ryan I am in the midst of researching "ranked and unranked" so if you would like to discuss this I am interested...I have a lot of time on my hands and college ball is one of my fav.get in touch

Read this post and am interested in some discussion.  I like your idea(s)/approach.  I have posted a couple similar things, not college, but in relation to groups of numbers in the NBA looking for a discussion.  I sent you a friend request as that is the only way to send a message.