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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    chasing a lossing team for a win.(nhl)

    jerblack
    kreatture
    money4diapers
    mach82
    elithepunk
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    jerblack
    jerblack
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    Posted: Aug. 26, 2009 - 9:41 PM ET #1

    I tried this method a few times last year in the nhl, worked pretty well.  As soon as i saw a team had lost 4+ games in a row, i jumped on it and started a chase for a win. Odds are good and a win came within 1-3 games.    I call it " loserbandwagon" method. I looked around the 2008-09 season, worst losing streak was 6 games.
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    I tried this method a few times last year in the nhl, worked pretty well.  As soon as i saw a team had lost 4+ games in a row, i jumped on it and started a chase for a win. Odds are good and a win came within 1-3 games.    I call it " loserbandwagon" method. I looked around the 2008-09 season, worst losing streak was 6 games.
     
    kreatture
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2009 - 1:01 AM ET #2

    No stranger to the game.. any losing streak of 4+ games in the NHL is a good thing to jump on.. You just don't see losing streaks there like you will see in MLB and NBA.. Good valuable insight, I expect this trend to continue to do well this season.
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    No stranger to the game.. any losing streak of 4+ games in the NHL is a good thing to jump on.. You just don't see losing streaks there like you will see in MLB and NBA.. Good valuable insight, I expect this trend to continue to do well this season.
     
    money4diapers
    money4diapers
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2009 - 2:30 AM ET #3

    I like your idea.  I did a random check and it was looking good.  Then I check the worst 2 team last season and it would of kill the system.  TB and NYI had some pretty bad losing streaks. 
    TB had 9 game losing streak twice. 
    NYI had a 10 game losing streak and 8 game losing streak.
    Maybe putting some filter or accept the lost after 3 games.
    I might test this fully for previous years.

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    I like your idea.  I did a random check and it was looking good.  Then I check the worst 2 team last season and it would of kill the system.  TB and NYI had some pretty bad losing streaks. 
    TB had 9 game losing streak twice. 
    NYI had a 10 game losing streak and 8 game losing streak.
    Maybe putting some filter or accept the lost after 3 games.
    I might test this fully for previous years.

     
    mach82
    mach82
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2009 - 8:14 AM ET #4

    In January, Vancouver lost 8 games in a row, so even if you rule out worst teams, you can still lose a lot of $$$. After the 8-game losing streak vancouver defeated carolina at home but the ML was just -160 so you would really have to bet a lot in this case. It's not worth it. 
     
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    In January, Vancouver lost 8 games in a row, so even if you rule out worst teams, you can still lose a lot of $$$. After the 8-game losing streak vancouver defeated carolina at home but the ML was just -160 so you would really have to bet a lot in this case. It's not worth it. 
     
     
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2009 - 10:08 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by mach82:

    In January, Vancouver lost 8 games in a row, so even if you rule out worst teams, you can still lose a lot of $$$. After the 8-game losing streak vancouver defeated carolina at home but the ML was just -160 so you would really have to bet a lot in this case. It's not worth it. 
     


    Jerblack - That series above would have probably killed all season profits. Do you have the numbers supporting the data from last year in terms of units?
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    Quote Originally Posted by mach82:

    In January, Vancouver lost 8 games in a row, so even if you rule out worst teams, you can still lose a lot of $$$. After the 8-game losing streak vancouver defeated carolina at home but the ML was just -160 so you would really have to bet a lot in this case. It's not worth it. 
     


    Jerblack - That series above would have probably killed all season profits. Do you have the numbers supporting the data from last year in terms of units?
     
    jerblack
    jerblack
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    Posted: Aug. 27, 2009 - 6:56 PM ET #6

    good research! as i said tried a few times and never ran into a 8 game lossing streak,...but jumping on it after 4, its only 1 more then what i stated. A 8 game lossing is only a 4 game chase then a win.  I'll look into some more ideas on the idea.
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    good research! as i said tried a few times and never ran into a 8 game lossing streak,...but jumping on it after 4, its only 1 more then what i stated. A 8 game lossing is only a 4 game chase then a win.  I'll look into some more ideas on the idea.
     
    mach82
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    Posted: Aug. 28, 2009 - 5:10 AM ET #7

    You could try betting totals. There are a number of teams who were very profitable last year, e.g. WSH was 25-14 over the total last year when playing at home (64.1%) and to my assumption this trend should also continue this season. You should just take last years' data for each team, analyze the roster & coach changes and estimate if the changes will (and  how) affect the style of play of a given team. If you know how a given team was playing last year and compare it to the new pre-season games and also analyze a lot during the season, then you should be quite successful at betting totals. I don't think you can be successful without much effort and betting on cold teams can be very dangerous. Good luck.
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    You could try betting totals. There are a number of teams who were very profitable last year, e.g. WSH was 25-14 over the total last year when playing at home (64.1%) and to my assumption this trend should also continue this season. You should just take last years' data for each team, analyze the roster & coach changes and estimate if the changes will (and  how) affect the style of play of a given team. If you know how a given team was playing last year and compare it to the new pre-season games and also analyze a lot during the season, then you should be quite successful at betting totals. I don't think you can be successful without much effort and betting on cold teams can be very dangerous. Good luck.
     
     
    jerblack
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    Posted: Aug. 28, 2009 - 9:04 AM ET #8

    i'm going to take a look at a teams results of a last game of a long road trip, and if the team they are facing have sat at home on a couple days rest.............i'm busy with work this week mach82, so if you have a spare couple of minutes check that out. We'll share the work  
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    i'm going to take a look at a teams results of a last game of a long road trip, and if the team they are facing have sat at home on a couple days rest.............i'm busy with work this week mach82, so if you have a spare couple of minutes check that out. We'll share the work  
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