Building The Bankroll For The NFL Regular Season

Building The Bankroll For The NFL Regular Season

Week 1 Results

Both Hall of Fame game participants Buffalo, and Tennessee won, and covered the spread.

Three of the nine teams with new NFL Head Coaches in 2009, covered the spread. The St. Louis Rams, and Denver Broncos last Friday, and the Seattle Seahawks last Saturday.  The Detroit Lions won the game but failed to cover the spread.

Chase starts on the following teams until they cover one game:

Detroit Lions

Tampa Bay Bucs

Cleveland Browns

Indianapolis Colts

Kansas City Chiefs

NY Jets

Conflict in Week 2 as the Detroit Lions, and Cleveland Browns play each other on Saturday. Usually a good spot to pass on the game, and double up on the loser next week. Except for playing the Browns after being shut out which is a great angle to bet (Redskins, also shut out ), and fading the Lions after come from behind win in Week 1.

Betting on a team that lost in the post season last year in their first exhibition home game. The results were:

In the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, and  Tennessee Titans won, and covered the spread. The Miami Dolphins won but the game pushed.

Teams looking for their first cover are the Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers.  Indianapolis is at home again this week playing the Philadelphia Eagles. Planning on doubling up on the spread  loser next week.

In the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, and NY Giants, covered the spread. Teams looking for their first cover are the Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers, and the Arizona Cardinals. The Arizona Cardinals are at home playing the San Diego Chargers. Lean to the Cards, and planning on doubling up on the spread loser next week. The Carolina Panthers are on the road  playing the Miami Dolphins. Starting a chase on the Carolina Panthers.

Yes to, GamblrzAnonyms

Building The Bankroll For The NFL Regular Season

Week 3 finds the NFL midway through the Preseason. This week the games are much more interesting as teams often play their starters well into the third quarter.

Week 2 Results:

Both teams off shut out losses in Week 1 the Browns, and Redskins won, and covered the spread.

Five of six teams that lost by double digits in Week 1, won and covered the spread in Week 2. They were the Bengals, Colts, Cowboys, Redskins, and the Browns. The lone loser was the Cardinals. Teams that lost by double digits in Week 2, were the Titans, Panthers, Lions, Bills, Texans, Giants, Cardinals, and the Broncos.

The Titans, Cardinals, and the Broncos, all play teams that won by double digits. In the past, wagering on this situation has been a very profitable great angle to bet. In addition, the Panthers, Cardinals, and the Broncos fall into another great angle betting on an 0-2 team losing their first game on the road, and playing game # 3 at home.

Seven of the nine teams with new NFL Head Coaches in 2009, now have covered the spread. Joining the Week 1 winning St. Louis Rams, Denver Broncos, and the Seattle Seahawks, were the Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, and the NY Jets.

With two weeks remaining the chase continues on the following two teams until they cover one game:

Detroit Lions
Kansas City Chiefs

Betting on a team that lost in the post season last year in their first exhibition home game. The results were:

In the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans won, and covered the spread in Week 1. Joining them in Week 2 were the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and the San Diego Chargers. Now, all the AFC teams have covered.

In the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, and NY Giants, covered the spread in Week 1. Teams still looking for their first cover are the Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers, and the Arizona Cardinals. The chase continues on them.

Building The Bankroll For The NFL Regular Season

Week 4 finds the last NFL Preseason game. This season there's an unusually high amount of undefeated, and winless teams heading into the finale.

In the AFC, the Dolphins, and Ravens are undefeated. The Jaguars, Broncos, and Chiefs are winless. The Chiefs are the only team not covering the spread.

In the NFC, the Packers, Vikings, Saints, Seahawks, and 49ers are undefeated. The Panthers, and Cardinals are winless. Neither has covered the spread. Another is the 1-3 Eagles.

Not a bad play would be betting the above teams as dogs on the money line.

Over the past ten seasons, most teams that go undefeated have an excellent chance of making the post season, and winning a playoff game. While winless teams have poor years, and seldom reach the post season. More on this next week.

Week 3 Results:

Seven of eight teams that lost by double digits in Week 2, lost straight up and against the spread in Week 3. The lone winner was the Detroit Lions. The winning angle was playing a 2-0 team on the road. These teams went 7-0 straight up, and against the spread, with 6 winning straight up as dogs.

Eight of the nine teams with new NFL Head Coaches in 2009, now have covered the spread. Joining the St. Louis Rams, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Bucs, Cleveland Browns, and the NY Jets in Week 3 was the Detroit Lions.

With one week remaining the Chiefs are still looking to cover one game. Decreasing the chase bet on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Betting on a team that lost in the post season last year in their first exhibition home game. The results were:

In the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans won, and covered the spread in Week 1. Joining them in Week 2 were the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and the San Diego Chargers. All the AFC teams have covered.

In the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, and NY Giants, covered the spread in Week 1. Teams still looking for their first cover are the Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers, and the Arizona Cardinals. Decreasing the chase bets on the Eagles, Cardinals, and Panthers.

Playing the following dogs plus the points, with a smaller unit on the money line. Eagles, Ravens, Dolphins, Packers, Chiefs, and 49ers.

Week 4 Preseason Results:

The Dolphins, Ravens, and Seahawks concluded the Preseason undefeated. The Chiefs, Panthers, and Cardinals were winless. Over the past ten seasons, most teams that go undefeated have an excellent chance of making the post season, and winning a playoff game. While winless teams have poor years, and seldom reach the post season. Here is breakdown:

Undefeated Preseason Teams

Over the past ten seasons, 20 teams have went undefeated during the preseason. These teams have been horrible bets in Week 1 of the regular NFL season. They have gone 7-13 against the spread. Of these wins, 4 came as road dogs, 2 as a road favorite, and only 1 as a home favorite. These teams become better bets as the season progresses. Even the very bad regular season teams cover the spread. Last year, the 0-16 Lions covered seven times. As did the 2000 lowly 1-15 Chargers.

The real advantage of going undefeated during the preseason is that 11 of the 20 teams the past ten seasons made the post season, going 18-6 against the spread in the playoffs. Three of these teams went to the Super Bowl, and two won (2000 Ravens, and the 2003 Patriots, defeating the 2003 Panthers). This tends to support the deep roster theory that teams with better backup players, win in the preseason, overcome adversity in the regular season, and are able to replace most starters with quality players after injuries, and overcome other set backs because of a stronger bench. Thus, our strategy is to look for spots when this situation comes into play with the Dolphins, Ravens, and Seahawks.

Winless Preseason Teams

Over the past ten seasons, 19 teams have gone winless during the preseason. These teams have been decent bets in Week 1 of the regular NFL season. They have gone 11-8 against the spread, 5-5 as a favorite, 6-3 as a dog, and 6-2 as a road dog. The biggest upset was 2003 Texans playing the Dolphins in Miami, as +14 dogs. This straight up 21-20 win killed many a suicide pool that day.

The real disadvantage of going winless during the preseason is that only 2 of the 19 teams reached the post season. The 2000 Giants were crushed 34-7 in the Super Bowl by the 2000 Ravens, and the 2005 Colts were upset by the Steelers 21-18 as -9.5 home favorites. Once again the deep roster theory comes into play, and our strategy is to look for spots to exploit this situation against the Chiefs, Panthers, and Cardinals.

The Super Bowl Hangover & Winless Preseason Super Bowl Teams

The past ten years has found the Super Bowl loser unable to keep it up. Seems they shot their wad the previous season. In Week 1 of the regular NFL season they have gone 2-8 straight up, and 1-9 against the spread. During the entire regular NFL season, their combined record was 64-94-2 against the spread. Only two have posted a winning against the spread record (2004 Panthers, an undefeated Preseason team, and 2008 Patriots). Only two of the Super Bowl losers have returned to the postseason (2000 Titans, and 2006 Seahawks).

The 2009 Cardinals are the third Super Bowl loser in the past 10 years to have a winless Preseason. The 2008 Patriots, and the 2002 Rams both fell victims of the deep roster theory. Is it a coincidence or synchronicity that Kurt Warner was the Quarterback of the 2002 Rams, and now the 2009 Cardinals? His Rams team started the regular season 0-5 straight up, and against the spread. Word coming out of Arizona is that Cardinals Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt had too easy a training camp. Hearing you can't turn on a television, and switch on the radio in Phoenix without being exposed to a Cardinal hawking some kind product. Couple that with all their public appearances, and that equals a team whose mind is not on football. Fade this team as favorites at every opportunity. Even more so after the deep roster theory comes into play, and make huge profits by using our strategy looking for spots to severely exploit this situation. The 49ers plus the points in Week 1 of the regular season is a great bet with some added to the money line.

Added Note:

The Super Bowl Champs & NFL Kickoff Thursday

Over the past ten seasons, the Super Bowl Champ has returned to the postseason six times. However, they are only 5-5 straight up, and 4-6 against the spread in all playoff games. Only the 2004 Patriots were able to repeat. In Week 1 of the regular NFL season the Champ has gone 9-1 straight up, 7-2-1 against the spread. The only loser during this time span was the 1999 Broncos.

The NFL Kickoff Thursday game started in 2002. This is the sixth year in a row that the reigning Super Bowl Champ starts the regular NFL season at home. They are 4-0-1 against the spread, and won all five games straight up by an average margin of 12.4 points. These past five years the defending Champ has looked great in this Kickoff game. So much so, that they give the strong impression they will repeat. Expect more of the same. Steelers have been there, and done that in 2006. Steelers minus the points.