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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    BSS backtesting done from computer buddy

    ChanceP
    jv040
    Lippsman
    elithepunk
    JimmyJet
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    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 18, 2009 - 10:42 PM ET #1

    Ive got a friend who has been running a bunch of systems for me on his computer so I had him run the BSS system. Now all I had him do was track the record if you bet the OVER any time a team was playing its 4th game in 6 nights. The results arent too great, unfortunately. Here they are, this is betting the OVER
     
    1996: 40 - 38 - 6
    1997: 105 - 133 - 13
    1998: 91 - 107 - 31
    1999: 97 - 133 - 30
    2000: 138 - 130 - 14
    2001: 156 - 169 - 38
    2002: 141 - 180 - 32
    2003: 147 - 161 - 51
    2004: 130 - 113 - 27
    2005: 56 - 44 - 3
    2006: 164 - 204 - 20
    2007: 74 - 75 - 21
    All years: 1339 - 1487 - 286 (47.4%)
     
    Betting the opposite would net you a 52.6% winning pct but there were years where youd have lost money either way. This is one system I got pretty excited about but unfortunately it looks like just a "nice run"
     
    Is amazing, Ive had my friend run like 10 systemsand ALL of them were between 48.5% and 51.5%, ts crazy how all these things end up hovering around 50%, shows you how powerful the vig really is.
     
    ANyways, if youve got any systems you want run list them here and I'll have my friend run them
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Ive got a friend who has been running a bunch of systems for me on his computer so I had him run the BSS system. Now all I had him do was track the record if you bet the OVER any time a team was playing its 4th game in 6 nights. The results arent too great, unfortunately. Here they are, this is betting the OVER
     
    1996: 40 - 38 - 6
    1997: 105 - 133 - 13
    1998: 91 - 107 - 31
    1999: 97 - 133 - 30
    2000: 138 - 130 - 14
    2001: 156 - 169 - 38
    2002: 141 - 180 - 32
    2003: 147 - 161 - 51
    2004: 130 - 113 - 27
    2005: 56 - 44 - 3
    2006: 164 - 204 - 20
    2007: 74 - 75 - 21
    All years: 1339 - 1487 - 286 (47.4%)
     
    Betting the opposite would net you a 52.6% winning pct but there were years where youd have lost money either way. This is one system I got pretty excited about but unfortunately it looks like just a "nice run"
     
    Is amazing, Ive had my friend run like 10 systemsand ALL of them were between 48.5% and 51.5%, ts crazy how all these things end up hovering around 50%, shows you how powerful the vig really is.
     
    ANyways, if youve got any systems you want run list them here and I'll have my friend run them
     
    jv040
    jv040
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    Posted: Feb. 19, 2009 - 5:49 AM ET #2

    please check this one out it was posted recently in here

     

    Take a team that should not be "favored".....LOL What does that mean? Well, any team that is less in overall points but is favored...For example, the La Kings have less points than the Edmonton Oilers but they were favored tonight? So you bet the Kings...It lost tonight in shootouts but overall there is 1-3 plays a night and it wins at an alarming clip! You can take it further and bet the team that is favored on the puck line and you will get +190 to +250 and this too wins at a big percentage....Do your homework and go back and track what I am saying!!! It is a money maker if you like Hockey!!

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    please check this one out it was posted recently in here

     

    Take a team that should not be "favored".....LOL What does that mean? Well, any team that is less in overall points but is favored...For example, the La Kings have less points than the Edmonton Oilers but they were favored tonight? So you bet the Kings...It lost tonight in shootouts but overall there is 1-3 plays a night and it wins at an alarming clip! You can take it further and bet the team that is favored on the puck line and you will get +190 to +250 and this too wins at a big percentage....Do your homework and go back and track what I am saying!!! It is a money maker if you like Hockey!!

     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 19, 2009 - 9:43 AM ET #3

    Probably should narrow the parameters for the database.
     
    I would do just the away teams on a B2B for the over. Also away teams with a losing record on a B2B or 4 in 6 days.
     
    thanks
     
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    Probably should narrow the parameters for the database.
     
    I would do just the away teams on a B2B for the over. Also away teams with a losing record on a B2B or 4 in 6 days.
     
    thanks
     
     
    elithepunk
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    Posted: Feb. 19, 2009 - 10:01 AM ET #4

    was wondering what exactly your friend was using to backtrack and simulate these systems for previous years of data
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    was wondering what exactly your friend was using to backtrack and simulate these systems for previous years of data
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 19, 2009 - 2:25 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

    was wondering what exactly your friend was using to backtrack and simulate these systems for previous years of data

     

    The guy runs some program or "script" (m computer retarded). I guess all the scores and dates are in some database or somethig and he writes programs to checkthe past results

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    Quote Originally Posted by elithepunk:

    was wondering what exactly your friend was using to backtrack and simulate these systems for previous years of data

     

    The guy runs some program or "script" (m computer retarded). I guess all the scores and dates are in some database or somethig and he writes programs to checkthe past results

     
    JimmyJet
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    Posted: Feb. 19, 2009 - 2:31 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    Ive got a friend who has been running a bunch of systems for me on his computer so I had him run the BSS system. Now all I had him do was track the record if you bet the OVER any time a team was playing its 4th game in 6 nights. The results arent too great, unfortunately. Here they are, this is betting the OVER
     
    1996: 40 - 38 - 6
    1997: 105 - 133 - 13
    1998: 91 - 107 - 31
    1999: 97 - 133 - 30
    2000: 138 - 130 - 14
    2001: 156 - 169 - 38
    2002: 141 - 180 - 32
    2003: 147 - 161 - 51
    2004: 130 - 113 - 27
    2005: 56 - 44 - 3
    2006: 164 - 204 - 20
    2007: 74 - 75 - 21
    All years: 1339 - 1487 - 286 (47.4%)
     
    Betting the opposite would net you a 52.6% winning pct but there were years where youd have lost money either way. This is one system I got pretty excited about but unfortunately it looks like just a "nice run"
     
    Is amazing, Ive had my friend run like 10 systemsand ALL of them were between 48.5% and 51.5%, ts crazy how all these things end up hovering around 50%, shows you how powerful the vig really is.
     
    ANyways, if youve got any systems you want run list them here and I'll have my friend run them

    Yes. I am tracking my own system to play those teams that have covered their last game by more than 10 points and are playing against a team that failed to cover by 10 or more in their last game. So far the record is 19-9-1 in NCABB from 2/7/09. I have looked at a couple situations in the NBA and the play is 1-1 there but mainly concentrating on college hoops because I feel the linesmakers are a little slower their to adjust for teams playing better than expected against teams playing poorer than expected in their last games. If possible would love to see it backtracked.

     

    Thanks,

     

    JJ

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    Ive got a friend who has been running a bunch of systems for me on his computer so I had him run the BSS system. Now all I had him do was track the record if you bet the OVER any time a team was playing its 4th game in 6 nights. The results arent too great, unfortunately. Here they are, this is betting the OVER
     
    1996: 40 - 38 - 6
    1997: 105 - 133 - 13
    1998: 91 - 107 - 31
    1999: 97 - 133 - 30
    2000: 138 - 130 - 14
    2001: 156 - 169 - 38
    2002: 141 - 180 - 32
    2003: 147 - 161 - 51
    2004: 130 - 113 - 27
    2005: 56 - 44 - 3
    2006: 164 - 204 - 20
    2007: 74 - 75 - 21
    All years: 1339 - 1487 - 286 (47.4%)
     
    Betting the opposite would net you a 52.6% winning pct but there were years where youd have lost money either way. This is one system I got pretty excited about but unfortunately it looks like just a "nice run"
     
    Is amazing, Ive had my friend run like 10 systemsand ALL of them were between 48.5% and 51.5%, ts crazy how all these things end up hovering around 50%, shows you how powerful the vig really is.
     
    ANyways, if youve got any systems you want run list them here and I'll have my friend run them

    Yes. I am tracking my own system to play those teams that have covered their last game by more than 10 points and are playing against a team that failed to cover by 10 or more in their last game. So far the record is 19-9-1 in NCABB from 2/7/09. I have looked at a couple situations in the NBA and the play is 1-1 there but mainly concentrating on college hoops because I feel the linesmakers are a little slower their to adjust for teams playing better than expected against teams playing poorer than expected in their last games. If possible would love to see it backtracked.

     

    Thanks,

     

    JJ

     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 20, 2009 - 1:31 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

    Yes. I am tracking my own system to play those teams that have covered their last game by more than 10 points and are playing against a team that failed to cover by 10 or more in their last game. So far the record is 19-9-1 in NCABB from 2/7/09. I have looked at a couple situations in the NBA and the play is 1-1 there but mainly concentrating on college hoops because I feel the linesmakers are a little slower their to adjust for teams playing better than expected against teams playing poorer than expected in their last games. If possible would love to see it backtracked.

     

    Thanks,

     

    JJ

     

     

    I saw ur post on this yesterday I believe and I had him run the system, but for the NBA. I emailed him right before I wrote his about dong it for college but I prolly wont hear back from him till morning, but he'll do it. Anyways, here's the NBA results for your system. I had him run it for 10 points, 15 points, an 20 points. I know your system is just 10 points but I said fuck it and had him run them all

     

    10 points

    1996 : 7 - 15 - 0
    1997 : 38 - 33 - 3
    1998 : 23 - 22 - 1
    1999 : 45 - 41 - 1
    2000 : 25 - 29 - 0
    2001 : 57 - 50 - 2
    2002 : 19 - 19 - 3
    2003 : 41 - 48 - 2
    2004 : 20 - 19 - 0
    2005 : 14 - 13 - 4
    2006 : 24 - 10 - 1
    2007 : 21 - 14 - 1
    2008 : 47 - 42 - 1
    2009 : 12 - 7 - 0
    All years: 393 - 362 - 19 (52.0%)

    15 points

    1996 : 5 - 2 - 0
    1997 : 8 - 7 - 1
    1998 : 8 - 6 - 1
    1999 : 14 - 17 - 0
    2000 : 8 - 6 - 0
    2001 : 20 - 16 - 0
    2002 : 6 - 6 - 2
    2003 : 14 - 9 - 0
    2004 : 8 - 4 - 0
    2005 : 3 - 4 - 1
    2006 : 8 - 3 - 0
    2007 : 9 - 7 - 1
    2008 : 12 - 10 - 0
    2009 : 4 - 3 - 0
    All years: 127 - 100 - 6 (55.9%)

    20 points

    1996 : 1 - 0 - 0
    1997 : 3 - 2 - 1
    1998 : 2 - 4 - 0
    1999 : 1 - 4 - 0
    2000 : 2 - 1 - 0
    2001 : 8 - 5 - 0
    2003 : 7 - 3 - 0
    2004 : 1 - 1 - 0
    2005 : 0 - 1 - 0
    2006 : 3 - 1 - 0
    2008 : 4 - 4 - 0
    2009 : 2 - 2 - 0
    All years: 34 - 28 - 1 (54.8%)

    Interesting

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    Quote Originally Posted by JimmyJet:

    Yes. I am tracking my own system to play those teams that have covered their last game by more than 10 points and are playing against a team that failed to cover by 10 or more in their last game. So far the record is 19-9-1 in NCABB from 2/7/09. I have looked at a couple situations in the NBA and the play is 1-1 there but mainly concentrating on college hoops because I feel the linesmakers are a little slower their to adjust for teams playing better than expected against teams playing poorer than expected in their last games. If possible would love to see it backtracked.

     

    Thanks,

     

    JJ

     

     

    I saw ur post on this yesterday I believe and I had him run the system, but for the NBA. I emailed him right before I wrote his about dong it for college but I prolly wont hear back from him till morning, but he'll do it. Anyways, here's the NBA results for your system. I had him run it for 10 points, 15 points, an 20 points. I know your system is just 10 points but I said fuck it and had him run them all

     

    10 points

    1996 : 7 - 15 - 0
    1997 : 38 - 33 - 3
    1998 : 23 - 22 - 1
    1999 : 45 - 41 - 1
    2000 : 25 - 29 - 0
    2001 : 57 - 50 - 2
    2002 : 19 - 19 - 3
    2003 : 41 - 48 - 2
    2004 : 20 - 19 - 0
    2005 : 14 - 13 - 4
    2006 : 24 - 10 - 1
    2007 : 21 - 14 - 1
    2008 : 47 - 42 - 1
    2009 : 12 - 7 - 0
    All years: 393 - 362 - 19 (52.0%)

    15 points

    1996 : 5 - 2 - 0
    1997 : 8 - 7 - 1
    1998 : 8 - 6 - 1
    1999 : 14 - 17 - 0
    2000 : 8 - 6 - 0
    2001 : 20 - 16 - 0
    2002 : 6 - 6 - 2
    2003 : 14 - 9 - 0
    2004 : 8 - 4 - 0
    2005 : 3 - 4 - 1
    2006 : 8 - 3 - 0
    2007 : 9 - 7 - 1
    2008 : 12 - 10 - 0
    2009 : 4 - 3 - 0
    All years: 127 - 100 - 6 (55.9%)

    20 points

    1996 : 1 - 0 - 0
    1997 : 3 - 2 - 1
    1998 : 2 - 4 - 0
    1999 : 1 - 4 - 0
    2000 : 2 - 1 - 0
    2001 : 8 - 5 - 0
    2003 : 7 - 3 - 0
    2004 : 1 - 1 - 0
    2005 : 0 - 1 - 0
    2006 : 3 - 1 - 0
    2008 : 4 - 4 - 0
    2009 : 2 - 2 - 0
    All years: 34 - 28 - 1 (54.8%)

    Interesting

     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 20, 2009 - 1:50 AM ET #8

    Tonight on the ice, taking the over on teams that were on a B2B game was gold.
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    Tonight on the ice, taking the over on teams that were on a B2B game was gold.
     
    JimmyJet
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    Posted: Feb. 20, 2009 - 7:50 PM ET #9

    Thanks Chance...my thinking is that the college hoops lines because of so many games do not get as much attention as the NBA lines. This theory would probably work better in the beginning and middle of the season rather than later when the books have really sharpened the lines based on experience from the prior games. Looking forward to see the back track on college hoops.
     
    JJ
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    Thanks Chance...my thinking is that the college hoops lines because of so many games do not get as much attention as the NBA lines. This theory would probably work better in the beginning and middle of the season rather than later when the books have really sharpened the lines based on experience from the prior games. Looking forward to see the back track on college hoops.
     
    JJ
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Feb. 21, 2009 - 1:05 AM ET #10

    the guy wants $ now to do it, says its gonna take him like 4 hours. So forget it I guess, that sux
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    the guy wants $ now to do it, says its gonna take him like 4 hours. So forget it I guess, that sux
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 21, 2009 - 10:41 AM ET #11

    Too bad, I would really like to see hot the B2B overs did.
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    Too bad, I would really like to see hot the B2B overs did.
     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Feb. 21, 2009 - 6:28 PM ET #12

    You can't back track overs for previous years compared to this year because of the rules changes. I bet the strong trends from BSS not just the overs. The overs has some of the lowest win percentages. Go look at the 2nd BSS Jbrent has a really good break down of trends in there.
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    You can't back track overs for previous years compared to this year because of the rules changes. I bet the strong trends from BSS not just the overs. The overs has some of the lowest win percentages. Go look at the 2nd BSS Jbrent has a really good break down of trends in there.
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 21, 2009 - 10:01 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

    You can't back track overs for previous years compared to this year because of the rules changes..

    Yes you can, it's been a few years since the rule changes.

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

    You can't back track overs for previous years compared to this year because of the rules changes..

    Yes you can, it's been a few years since the rule changes.

     

     
    Stake24
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2009 - 6:27 AM ET #14

    I thought the no commercial break after a icing has had a impact on overs and is it not the first year.
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    I thought the no commercial break after a icing has had a impact on overs and is it not the first year.
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2009 - 10:47 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

    I thought the no commercial break after a icing has had a impact on overs and is it not the first year.

    No, the no commerical break isn't even a blip on the stat map. That is in the first year though. The major changes a few years ago is what has skewed all the hockey stats from the start of time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

    I thought the no commercial break after a icing has had a impact on overs and is it not the first year.

    No, the no commerical break isn't even a blip on the stat map. That is in the first year though. The major changes a few years ago is what has skewed all the hockey stats from the start of time.

     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2009 - 11:13 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

    You can't back track overs for previous years compared to this year because of the rules changes. I bet the strong trends from BSS not just the overs. The overs has some of the lowest win percentages. Go look at the 2nd BSS Jbrent has a really good break down of trends in there.

    I took a look at that when he posted it and it jived with what I have seen so far. 

    The overs on the teams with a losing record is .  In fact most all of the really strong winning percentages are keyed to the road team having a losing record. But as I said before it's all in how you view a losing team. Some will just go by the W-L and not pay attention to the OT/SO L's. I make sure and count those as losses also.

    What ever happened to the guy that started this.  I think he disappeared, posted he was visiting his parents and disappeared again.  Wasn't he trying to do the gambling thing full time?

    4 B2B plays today.

    Pitt

    Boston (Winning record)

    Minny (Winning record)

    Toronto....(Way losing record)

    I just don't look back for the 4 in 6 games, although I did for the Avs game.  Doesn't apply

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

    You can't back track overs for previous years compared to this year because of the rules changes. I bet the strong trends from BSS not just the overs. The overs has some of the lowest win percentages. Go look at the 2nd BSS Jbrent has a really good break down of trends in there.

    I took a look at that when he posted it and it jived with what I have seen so far. 

    The overs on the teams with a losing record is .  In fact most all of the really strong winning percentages are keyed to the road team having a losing record. But as I said before it's all in how you view a losing team. Some will just go by the W-L and not pay attention to the OT/SO L's. I make sure and count those as losses also.

    What ever happened to the guy that started this.  I think he disappeared, posted he was visiting his parents and disappeared again.  Wasn't he trying to do the gambling thing full time?

    4 B2B plays today.

    Pitt

    Boston (Winning record)

    Minny (Winning record)

    Toronto....(Way losing record)

    I just don't look back for the 4 in 6 games, although I did for the Avs game.  Doesn't apply

     

     
    cd329
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2009 - 12:47 PM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

    I took a look at that when he posted it and it jived with what I have seen so far. 

    The overs on the teams with a losing record is .  In fact most all of the really strong winning percentages are keyed to the road team having a losing record. But as I said before it's all in how you view a losing team. Some will just go by the W-L and not pay attention to the OT/SO L's. I make sure and count those as losses also.

    What ever happened to the guy that started this.  I think he disappeared, posted he was visiting his parents and disappeared again.  Wasn't he trying to do the gambling thing full time?

    4 B2B plays today.

    Pitt

    Boston (Winning record)

    Minny (Winning record)

    Toronto....(Way losing record)

    I just don't look back for the 4 in 6 games, although I did for the Avs game.  Doesn't apply

     

     

    So Lippsman, all 4 of these games you play over or do you play the sides?  Little confused.

    thanks and good luck

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

    I took a look at that when he posted it and it jived with what I have seen so far. 

    The overs on the teams with a losing record is .  In fact most all of the really strong winning percentages are keyed to the road team having a losing record. But as I said before it's all in how you view a losing team. Some will just go by the W-L and not pay attention to the OT/SO L's. I make sure and count those as losses also.

    What ever happened to the guy that started this.  I think he disappeared, posted he was visiting his parents and disappeared again.  Wasn't he trying to do the gambling thing full time?

    4 B2B plays today.

    Pitt

    Boston (Winning record)

    Minny (Winning record)

    Toronto....(Way losing record)

    I just don't look back for the 4 in 6 games, although I did for the Avs game.  Doesn't apply

     

     

    So Lippsman, all 4 of these games you play over or do you play the sides?  Little confused.

    thanks and good luck

     
     
    Lippsman
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    Posted: Feb. 22, 2009 - 3:31 PM ET #18

    I played Over on the Pitt game and over on the Rangers game.  Also it called for a play on the Caps and Rangers.  Would need to put those two in a parlay or PL them -.5 or -1
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    I played Over on the Pitt game and over on the Rangers game.  Also it called for a play on the Caps and Rangers.  Would need to put those two in a parlay or PL them -.5 or -1
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