Posted:
#1
How good is the public when it comes to predict the outcome of a basketball or hockey game?
Everybody says betting against the public is a good strategy and you will win in the long run if you bet against the public.
They are right and that is proven, but does it always work?
If we all bet against the public aren't we becoming the public?
Who's the public and how much does the public know about sports?
I bet against the public, you bet against the public, he and she are betting against the public because we and they all know that is proven to be effective. What about the public? Who are they?
I like how it sounds but enough with the talking and let's move to facts.
I think the public is biased when it comes to games where the betting percentages are over 60% for one team. It's not realistic. Think about the odds in basketball games: the bookie offers around -110 for all games and that means chances around 50-50%. So when the bets are splitted 60-40 or 70-30 or 80-20 something is not right. How many teams win ATS over 60% of their games? What about 70 or 80% ATS wins? Think about hockey: how many teams win 60 to 80% of their games (
)?
)?So I will go against the public for games where the betting percentage is over 60% for one team. That means I will pick the team under rated by the public.
But what about games where the public bets are splitted something like 51-49%?
I think in this case it's better to go with the public. We all are the public. If the public is not biased toward one side that means the public is informed and realistic about that game.
So, I will bet with the public for games where the betting percentages are under 57%.
I have no past data but I'm using this system starting today and look what I picked (some games are finished, but that's it):
NCAAB:
Stephen F Austin
and over 121.5
and over 121.5Tennessee
and under 148
and under 148Purdue and over 124.5
and over 124.5Duke
That's 5-2 for college bb.
NBA:
atlanta
philadelphia
toronto and over
dallas
new york
orlando and over
sacramento and over
phoenix and under
la clippers
NHL
rangers and over
boston
islanders
detroit
st louis and under
san jose and under
colorado
For totals I used other rule:
If the percentages were 60% or higher I didn't pick that play.
If the percentages were under 60% I picked that total.
I used betting percentages here on covers.com at the consensus section.
0
when I see so many people playing only this way or using the ole reverse line movement plays. That's why the books offer numbers to Sports Insights. It's going to end up a 50-50 prop and that's what they want in the first place.
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