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Betting against the public or betting with the public?

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Posted: #1
How good is the public when it comes to predict the outcome of a basketball or hockey game?
Everybody says betting against the public is a good strategy and you will win in the long run if you bet against the public.
They are right and that is proven, but does it always work?
If we all bet against the public aren't we becoming the public?
Who's the public and how much does the public know about sports?
I bet against the public, you bet against the public, he and she are betting against the public because we and they all know that is proven to be effective. What about the public? Who are they?
I like how it sounds but enough with the talking and let's move to facts.
I think the public is biased when it comes to games where the betting percentages are over 60% for one team. It's not realistic. Think about the odds in basketball games: the bookie offers around -110 for all games and that means chances around 50-50%. So when the bets are splitted 60-40 or 70-30 or 80-20 something is not right. How many teams win ATS over 60% of their games? What about 70 or 80% ATS wins? Think about hockey: how many teams win 60 to 80% of their games ()?
So I will go against the public for games where the betting percentage is over 60% for one team. That means I will pick the team under rated by the public.
But what about games where the public bets are splitted something like 51-49%?
I think in this case it's better to go with the public. We all are the public. If the public is not biased toward one side that means the public is informed and realistic about that game.
So, I will bet with the public for games where the betting percentages are under 57%.
I have no past data but I'm using this system starting today and look what I picked (some games are finished, but that's it):
 
NCAAB:
Stephen F Austin and over 121.5
Tennessee and under 148
Purdue and over 124.5
Duke
 
That's 5-2 for college bb.
 
NBA:
atlanta
philadelphia
toronto and over
dallas
new york
orlando and over
sacramento and over
phoenix and under
la clippers
 
NHL
rangers and over
boston
islanders
detroit
st louis and under
san jose and under
colorado
 
For totals I used other rule:
If the percentages were 60% or higher I didn't pick that play.
If the percentages were under 60% I picked that total.
I used betting percentages here on covers.com at the consensus section.
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
last 4 or 5 years betting against the public has won money, but the last couple months like since sept or so public is killing it. dont know why. seems like something that vegas would adjust to.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #3
It's a 50-50 prop.  You gotta pick your spots
 
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Posted: #4
NBA:
atlanta -4
philadelphia -7.5
toronto +2 and over 212.5 
dallas +8.5
new york +10
orlando -5.5 and over 210.5
sacramento +2 PUSH and over 210 PUSH
phoenix +3 and under 243.5
la clippers +2
 
NBA was 8-3, 72%
Looks like public opinion is more relevant fot side plays and less for totals.
 
NHL
rangers and over
boston
islanders
detroit
st louis and under
san jose and under
colorado
 
NHL 7-3, 70%.
Same observation: Public does better on sides than on totals.
 
NCAAB was 5-2, 71%, with public doing better on totals than on sides.
Maybe next day I should try only sides.
Last night was great: 20-7 on alls sports (74%).
 
 
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Posted: #5
16.03.09
 
NHL
Los Angeles -105
 
NBA
Houston +3.5
Oklahoma +5.5
Denver -9.5
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
Hi Dog,
 
I have been tracking the % and line movements on pregame for around 2 months now. When I started I found that if a certain matchup had a % of 65 or higher with the line moving the opposite way, that other side was gold +- 65% wins... (just NCAAB and NBA)
This last week has been terrible!!!!! The public plays have all been winning especially in college hoops!!
 
Are you taking the percentages from this site???
Take a look at pre-game, I like how they post the ML then current line and % on each team right next to each other for easy comparison!!!
 
Will you be tracking anything like this for Baseball ???
 
Thanks for your work as always!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #7
I am taking the percentages from this site. And I am taking the percentages for opening, not for closing line.
As you seen last night the public does good when the percentage is lower than 60%. And not so good when it comes to over 60% percentages.
As I noticed the public opinion is right when the difference between the percentages is low. The higher the difference between the betting percentages, the bigger is the bias toward that game and viceversa.
And it works fine for sides. For totals I think it's 50-50.
I'll continue with this approach but only for sides.
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
I noticed something with your College and NBA total system when it point you against the public it usually a good spot and hit a decent rate.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #9
I have never really trusted the numbers from here because no one is wagering real money.  Makes a huge difference on how people make wagers.
 
I will look at insights some, again to back up a play.  If I make a play and see tons of people on it, then I look at the play again. 
 
Also you mentioned the public doing better on sides than totals.  That is just a blip on the stat chart.  As a rule the public hits totals much better than sides.  That's why you will see more movement in OU's.  The books are quicker to move those lines because they are weaker.  That's the reason you see much lower limits on totals than sides.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

I have never really trusted the numbers from here because no one is wagering real money.  Makes a huge difference on how people make wagers.
 
I will look at insights some, again to back up a play.  If I make a play and see tons of people on it, then I look at the play again. 
 
Also you mentioned the public doing better on sides than totals.  That is just a blip on the stat chart.  As a rule the public hits totals much better than sides.  That's why you will see more movement in OU's.  The books are quicker to move those lines because they are weaker.  That's the reason you see much lower limits on totals than sides.

       incorperating  public insight into your handicapping skills has no real advantage, other than opinion..and opinion does not cover a spread..The match-up, and situational play, are your tools....the "public" plays a very, very, small role in cappin' a matchup. Almost to the point, that it cannot be taken seriously (the public wagers on favorites with no value connected, 95% of the time)

      Point in question, have you ever seen public opinion exceed 45% on a ML "dog".......Your assessment on totals/OU's was right on the money, good insight, few pick-up on this line movement, a good edge when getting a lean on total play...

 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #11
Different strokes for different folks.  But when I make a play and if it happens to be a national game on TV I will do a major doubletake if a huge amount of the public is on the side I am on.
 
And that's exactly what I said I do with it.  Use it as a tool, nothing more.
 
But I just when I see so many people playing only this way or using the ole reverse line movement plays.  That's why the books offer numbers to Sports Insights.  It's going to end up a 50-50 prop and that's what they want in the first place.
 
 
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Posted: #12
The line moved for Denver at -13 and the public changed sides (???). I'll stay at my first pick with the opening line (-9.5).
The final picks would be:
 
NHL
Los Angeles -105
Atlanta +165
 
NBA
Houston +3.5
Oklahoma +5.5
Denver -9.5
Toronto +7.5
Memphis +6
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Hi Dog,

Comparing your plays to pregame.com sportsbook spy this is what I come up with.

Houston +3.5
Oaklahoma +5
NJ +13

All 3 of these have public opinion of greater then 60% on the opposite side!!

NHL.

Atlanta +160
Nashville +100

public opinion is 75% on the other sides...

Best of luck

 
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Posted: #14
NHL
Los Angeles -105
Atlanta +165
 
NBA
Houston +3.5
Oklahoma +5.5
Denver -9.5
Toronto +7.5
Memphis +6
 
NHL 1-1 but in profit
NBA 3-2.
 
 
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Posted: #15
NCAAB
 
Niagara -3.5
South Carolina -3
Rider +3.5
Oakland -4.5
Morehead St -2.5
George Mason +5.5
UAB +6.5
Northeastern +2.5
Kentucky -7
Nebraska +7.5
Weber State +11.5
Washington St. +4
UTEP +1.5
 
NHL
 
Chicago +134
Montreal -121
Ottawa -125
Atlanta +295
Tampa Bay -120
Washington -108
Philadelphia +173
Colorado +151
Edmonton -125
Dallas +150
Phoenix +186
 
NBA
 
Atlanta -12
Cleveland -6
Chicago +1.5
Minnesota +11
Utah -15
Philadelphia +9.5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Just NBA for me today:

Chicago +1.5
Minny +11

Good luck Dog !!!!


 
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Posted: #17
Suggestion.....use www.pregame.com and their Sportsbook Spy....early games March 17th if you used your system on the overnight line....5-0 in college hoops. I am tracking it and the selections were:
 
Oakland
Liberty
Morehead St
Davidson
RI
Penn St
UAB
UNLV
New Mexico
SDST
Wash St
NE
UTEP
 
First 5 are final and all winners....think you may have somethinb here Callin...good luck....JJ
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
Two NBA plays for me tonight:

Milwaukee +5.5
Indiana +2

Good luck to all

 
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Posted: #19
thespread.com has some very good public betting charts and graphs. keep up the good work lets ride this through the tournament!
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #20
Dog where are you????????
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