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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Baseball Total System Got me kicked from book!

    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
    manifesto
    donvndcn
    JudgeSmails
    thedegenerate
    sports_Network
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    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
     
    manifesto
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 12:53 PM ET #26

    NYY: 19-10
    Boston: 20-8
    Cleveland: 18-12
    Toronto: 20-13
    LAA: 16-12
    Baltimore: 17-13
     
    Combined record of 110-68 Over for 62% (35.2 units).   Teams playing each other at 31-10 for 76% (20 units).   Chase on two of these teams playing each other and one game for the series going over won last night on Game 2 of NYY-Bal bringing that system to 13-0 on the season.   So far 10 winners on Game 1 and 3 winners on Game 2 with no chase beyond Game 2 to date.
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    NYY: 19-10
    Boston: 20-8
    Cleveland: 18-12
    Toronto: 20-13
    LAA: 16-12
    Baltimore: 17-13
     
    Combined record of 110-68 Over for 62% (35.2 units).   Teams playing each other at 31-10 for 76% (20 units).   Chase on two of these teams playing each other and one game for the series going over won last night on Game 2 of NYY-Bal bringing that system to 13-0 on the season.   So far 10 winners on Game 1 and 3 winners on Game 2 with no chase beyond Game 2 to date.
     
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 10, 2009 - 1:00 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by donvndcn:

    For  moneyline players here is the system play for today.

    FLORIDA MARLINS  (Volstad)

    Don, what is your angle on this one?   Cook has been pitching better each time out and Volstad seems to be heading the opposite direction....

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    Quote Originally Posted by donvndcn:

    For  moneyline players here is the system play for today.

    FLORIDA MARLINS  (Volstad)

    Don, what is your angle on this one?   Cook has been pitching better each time out and Volstad seems to be heading the opposite direction....

     
    donvndcn
    donvndcn
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    Posted: May. 11, 2009 - 11:29 AM ET #28

    Marlins drop it yesterday but it was just a loss, it does not change my system on these plays. Puts me now at 38-13.
    My angle is using a power rating system based on strength of pitchers. I have an index just like Sagarian and if my line is off I fade the team that should be winning.

    For example yesterday there was no doubt that Cook was the dominant one but after looking at a line of -120 I went with the Marlins because there was a strong chance for a home loss with a lower line.

    My point system was like this yesterday.

    Marlins 23.69
    Rockies 26.13

    Therefore the Rockies should win but according to my system it usually filters out the upsets and due pitchers based on the moneyline value.  Very difficult to get into it but I will do my best over the days to explain.

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    Marlins drop it yesterday but it was just a loss, it does not change my system on these plays. Puts me now at 38-13.
    My angle is using a power rating system based on strength of pitchers. I have an index just like Sagarian and if my line is off I fade the team that should be winning.

    For example yesterday there was no doubt that Cook was the dominant one but after looking at a line of -120 I went with the Marlins because there was a strong chance for a home loss with a lower line.

    My point system was like this yesterday.

    Marlins 23.69
    Rockies 26.13

    Therefore the Rockies should win but according to my system it usually filters out the upsets and due pitchers based on the moneyline value.  Very difficult to get into it but I will do my best over the days to explain.

     
    donvndcn
    donvndcn
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    Posted: May. 11, 2009 - 11:34 AM ET #29

    Monday my ratings show

    Cleveland  21.12
    Chicago White Sox  22.45

    White Sox are favored based on my rating system moneyline however Indians are the favorite based on odds. Therefore I chose the Indians on Monday.


    INDIANS MONEYLINE
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    Monday my ratings show

    Cleveland  21.12
    Chicago White Sox  22.45

    White Sox are favored based on my rating system moneyline however Indians are the favorite based on odds. Therefore I chose the Indians on Monday.


    INDIANS MONEYLINE
     
    JudgeSmails
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    Posted: May. 11, 2009 - 9:07 PM ET #30

    What book dropped you?
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    What book dropped you?
     
    donvndcn
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    Posted: May. 12, 2009 - 10:04 AM ET #31

    Another win on the moneyline for Monday, now for Tuesday
    my rating system falls for this matchup

    Take Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

    I am fading on the fact that Baltimore is the strongest team in the matchup based on pitching however Tampa is favored today.
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    Another win on the moneyline for Monday, now for Tuesday
    my rating system falls for this matchup

    Take Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

    I am fading on the fact that Baltimore is the strongest team in the matchup based on pitching however Tampa is favored today.
     
    donvndcn
    donvndcn
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    Posted: May. 12, 2009 - 10:09 AM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by JudgeSmails:

    What book dropped you?
      It was the book that the middle man used. I will not get into naming names in this situation however I just seen that book rating site just got some new negative info on them so I am assuming they are going under. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by JudgeSmails:

    What book dropped you?
      It was the book that the middle man used. I will not get into naming names in this situation however I just seen that book rating site just got some new negative info on them so I am assuming they are going under. 
     
    thedegenerate
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    Posted: May. 12, 2009 - 11:42 AM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by donvndcn:

    Another win on the moneyline for Monday, now for Tuesday
    my rating system falls for this matchup

    Take Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

    I am fading on the fact that Baltimore is the strongest team in the matchup based on pitching however Tampa is favored today.

     

    Hendrickson is on hill for BALT right?  and your system says he is better?  wow!

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    Quote Originally Posted by donvndcn:

    Another win on the moneyline for Monday, now for Tuesday
    my rating system falls for this matchup

    Take Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

    I am fading on the fact that Baltimore is the strongest team in the matchup based on pitching however Tampa is favored today.

     

    Hendrickson is on hill for BALT right?  and your system says he is better?  wow!

     
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 12, 2009 - 11:52 AM ET #34

    NYY: 19-11
    Boston: 20-9
    Cleveland: 19-13
    Toronto: 20-14
    LAA: 16-14
    Baltimore: 17-14
     
    Combined record of 111-74 Over for 60% (29.6 units).   Teams playing each other at 31-11 for 74% (18.9 units).   Got beat up on Sunday.   All unders.  Wow.   Two head to head series start tonight with Boston at LAA and Toronto at NYY.
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    NYY: 19-11
    Boston: 20-9
    Cleveland: 19-13
    Toronto: 20-14
    LAA: 16-14
    Baltimore: 17-14
     
    Combined record of 111-74 Over for 60% (29.6 units).   Teams playing each other at 31-11 for 74% (18.9 units).   Got beat up on Sunday.   All unders.  Wow.   Two head to head series start tonight with Boston at LAA and Toronto at NYY.
     
    donvndcn
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    Posted: May. 14, 2009 - 9:41 AM ET #35

    This started out as a totals thread so I will move my money line plays to a new thread.

    manifesto keep up the great work on tracking. This is working great!
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    This started out as a totals thread so I will move my money line plays to a new thread.

    manifesto keep up the great work on tracking. This is working great!
     
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 14, 2009 - 11:08 AM ET #36

    NYY: 20-12
    Boston: 21-10
    Cleveland: 20-14
    Toronto: 21-15
    LAA: 17-14
    Baltimore: 19-14
     
    Combined record of 118-79 Over for 61% (31.1 units).   Teams playing each other at 33-13 for 72% (18.7 units).   Two head to head series completed with Boston at LAA and Toronto at NYY both going to game 2 so chase record is now 15-0.
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    NYY: 20-12
    Boston: 21-10
    Cleveland: 20-14
    Toronto: 21-15
    LAA: 17-14
    Baltimore: 19-14
     
    Combined record of 118-79 Over for 61% (31.1 units).   Teams playing each other at 33-13 for 72% (18.7 units).   Two head to head series completed with Boston at LAA and Toronto at NYY both going to game 2 so chase record is now 15-0.
     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: May. 14, 2009 - 11:20 AM ET #37

    15-0 is strong...............
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    15-0 is strong...............
     
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 14, 2009 - 5:57 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

    15-0 is strong...............

    More important stat on the 15-0 is that it has not yet had to go to a game 3 (11 G1, 4 G2) so there is minimal pucker factor...

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    Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

    15-0 is strong...............

    More important stat on the 15-0 is that it has not yet had to go to a game 3 (11 G1, 4 G2) so there is minimal pucker factor...

     
    sports_Network
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    Posted: May. 15, 2009 - 8:12 AM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by manifesto:

    More important stat on the 15-0 is that it has not yet had to go to a game 3 (11 G1, 4 G2) so there is minimal pucker factor...

    good notation, thorough description of success value, a added tool

    in handicapping total play..good contribution

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    Quote Originally Posted by manifesto:

    More important stat on the 15-0 is that it has not yet had to go to a game 3 (11 G1, 4 G2) so there is minimal pucker factor...

    good notation, thorough description of success value, a added tool

    in handicapping total play..good contribution

     
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 16, 2009 - 12:42 PM ET #40

    NYY: 20-13
    Boston: 21-10
    Cleveland: 21-14
    Toronto: 22-15
    LAA: 18-14
    Baltimore: 20-14
     
    Combined record of 122-80 Over for 60.4% (34 units).   Teams playing each other at 33-13 for 72% (18.7 units).   H2H series 15-0.   No active H2H series currently.
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    NYY: 20-13
    Boston: 21-10
    Cleveland: 21-14
    Toronto: 22-15
    LAA: 18-14
    Baltimore: 20-14
     
    Combined record of 122-80 Over for 60.4% (34 units).   Teams playing each other at 33-13 for 72% (18.7 units).   H2H series 15-0.   No active H2H series currently.
     
    RaleighDevil
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    Posted: May. 17, 2009 - 10:23 AM ET #41

    Maybe this has been mentioned but what if there is a push in game one or two? Do you continue to the end of the series?
     
    Where does one find the leaders in O/U? And I take it we're doing only the AL? Thanks for the great information.
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    Maybe this has been mentioned but what if there is a push in game one or two? Do you continue to the end of the series?
     
    Where does one find the leaders in O/U? And I take it we're doing only the AL? Thanks for the great information.
     
    MONEYshotS
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    Posted: May. 17, 2009 - 11:31 PM ET #42

    I use the "totals report" @ vegasinsider.  They usually keep it updated.
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    I use the "totals report" @ vegasinsider.  They usually keep it updated.
     
    RaleighDevil
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    Posted: May. 18, 2009 - 8:36 PM ET #43

    That works. Thanks
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    That works. Thanks
     
    MONEYshotS
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    Posted: May. 18, 2009 - 11:54 PM ET #44

    Washington Nats now with 21 Overs.  Only two Unders in like the last 12 games.  Their pitching is still not that good and the bullpen is worse but the offense has been in a groove lately and they seem to be able to put up 5 off of anyone.
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    Washington Nats now with 21 Overs.  Only two Unders in like the last 12 games.  Their pitching is still not that good and the bullpen is worse but the offense has been in a groove lately and they seem to be able to put up 5 off of anyone.
     
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 20, 2009 - 4:38 PM ET #45

    NYY: 22-15
    Boston: 22-13
    Cleveland: 24-15
    Toronto: 23-17
    LAA: 20-17
    Baltimore: 23-15
     
    Combined record of 134-92 Over for 59.4% (32.8 units).   Teams playing each other at 34-14 for 70.4% (18.6 units).   H2H series chase is 16-0 after Balt/NYY Over last night.   Toronto/Boston series still active and going to game 2 tonight....no chase to game 3 as of yet....
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    NYY: 22-15
    Boston: 22-13
    Cleveland: 24-15
    Toronto: 23-17
    LAA: 20-17
    Baltimore: 23-15
     
    Combined record of 134-92 Over for 59.4% (32.8 units).   Teams playing each other at 34-14 for 70.4% (18.6 units).   H2H series chase is 16-0 after Balt/NYY Over last night.   Toronto/Boston series still active and going to game 2 tonight....no chase to game 3 as of yet....
     
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 20, 2009 - 4:41 PM ET #46

    Quote Originally Posted by RaleighDevil:

    Maybe this has been mentioned but what if there is a push in game one or two? Do you continue to the end of the series?
     
    Where does one find the leaders in O/U? And I take it we're doing only the AL? Thanks for the great information.

    Raleigh, have not encountered the push situation yet.   If a push in game 1, I would scratch the series unless it was a 4 game series.  A push in game 2 is more problematic.  You have a loss to cover and potentially on one game to cover it.  Probably have to look at the pitching matchup closely for the game, but if the game 2 push was at 9 or below, I would probably play game 3.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RaleighDevil:

    Maybe this has been mentioned but what if there is a push in game one or two? Do you continue to the end of the series?
     
    Where does one find the leaders in O/U? And I take it we're doing only the AL? Thanks for the great information.

    Raleigh, have not encountered the push situation yet.   If a push in game 1, I would scratch the series unless it was a 4 game series.  A push in game 2 is more problematic.  You have a loss to cover and potentially on one game to cover it.  Probably have to look at the pitching matchup closely for the game, but if the game 2 push was at 9 or below, I would probably play game 3.

     
    thomasharris
    thomasharris
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    Posted: May. 21, 2009 - 9:11 AM ET #47

    I have been following this system and its amazing!!! I was wondering, since inter-league play is coming up, can we still use the system vs the top over nl teams? Just a thought
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    I have been following this system and its amazing!!! I was wondering, since inter-league play is coming up, can we still use the system vs the top over nl teams? Just a thought
     
    manifesto
    manifesto
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    Posted: May. 21, 2009 - 9:57 AM ET #48

    NYY: 23-15
    Boston: 23-13
    Cleveland: 25-15
    Toronto: 24-17
    LAA: 20-18
    Baltimore: 24-15
     
    Combined record of 139-93 Over for 60% (36.7 units).   Teams playing each other at 36-14 for 72% (20.6 units).   H2H series chase is 17-0 after Toronto/Boston Over last night in a game 2.   Still no chase to game 3 as of yet....
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    NYY: 23-15
    Boston: 23-13
    Cleveland: 25-15
    Toronto: 24-17
    LAA: 20-18
    Baltimore: 24-15
     
    Combined record of 139-93 Over for 60% (36.7 units).   Teams playing each other at 36-14 for 72% (20.6 units).   H2H series chase is 17-0 after Toronto/Boston Over last night in a game 2.   Still no chase to game 3 as of yet....
     
    manifesto
    manifesto
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    Posts: 763
    Posted: May. 21, 2009 - 9:59 AM ET #49

    Quote Originally Posted by thomasharris:

    I have been following this system and its amazing!!! I was wondering, since inter-league play is coming up, can we still use the system vs the top over nl teams? Just a thought

    It might be worth a look to include 5 best NL teams.   However, would probably on do it when playing at AL park with DH rule in effect.   AL pitchers having to bat spells big trouble...

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    Quote Originally Posted by thomasharris:

    I have been following this system and its amazing!!! I was wondering, since inter-league play is coming up, can we still use the system vs the top over nl teams? Just a thought

    It might be worth a look to include 5 best NL teams.   However, would probably on do it when playing at AL park with DH rule in effect.   AL pitchers having to bat spells big trouble...

     
     
    thomasharris
    thomasharris
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    Posted: May. 22, 2009 - 9:24 AM ET #50

    Hey Manifesto. besides Washington, Colorodo, and Philly. Who would you say the next best over teams in the NL. Maybe Flordia, Mets, Dogers , or Pittsburg?
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    Hey Manifesto. besides Washington, Colorodo, and Philly. Who would you say the next best over teams in the NL. Maybe Flordia, Mets, Dogers , or Pittsburg?
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