Anyone playing?

Okay, I did it again.  The schedule in my previous post had fade plays at home, but they should be on the road.  Here is the corrected schedule:

7-Apr CAR A C
7-Apr NYR A C
7-Apr (fade)BUF A D
9-Apr (fade)NJ A E
9-Apr TOR A C
12-Apr NSH A E
13-Apr COL A D
14-Apr TB A E
16-Apr (fade)SEA A C
18-Apr (fade)OTT A C
20-Apr (fade)CHI A E
21-Apr FLA A C
21-Apr (fade)NJ A C
26-Apr NYR A C

All good 

CAR won game C yesterday.

NSH A/E begins tomorrow.

So much for playing catchup after returning home from vacation.  Looks like CAR beat BUF in game A on 4/7.  It was a winner either way.

Also, NJ won game A, so game B would be tomorrow; but it's at ARI, another bottom team.  So I'm going to skip it and play game C at COL on 4/14

Good morning all! COL won game A yesterday.  There has been more shuffling of the schedules, so we have 4 plays today:

(play) TB A/E
(play) NSH A/D DD
(play) COL A/C DD
(fade) NJ B/C

The reminder of the season looks like this...

18-Apr (fade) OTT A/C
20-Apr (fade) CHI A/C
21-Apr (play) FLA A/C
22-Apr (fade) SEA A/C
26-Apr (play) NYR A/C
26-Apr (play) MIN A/C

Since the NYR and MIN plays begin at the very end of the season, and it's likely they may rest players, I'll probably skip those 2.

Thanks for the update golf57, need it with the way the schedule is playing out 

@rustie

(fade) NJ game B and (play) COL game A winners yesterday

TB and NSH both lost.  Both teams play game B tomorrow

TB actually won the game on 4/14, 4-3; so that was a system winner.

I had the game as a loss (for me), because I played the game in regulation (odds were -341).

NSH is a play today, game B

NSH won yesterday.

I'm moving on to baseball... just too much going on for me right now.  Good luck to everyone!

[Quote: Originally Posted by rustie] Correct, and welcome back "57"  Good luck

confirmed "the rust never sleeps"

For anyone who is interested in this system it will begin on 2/6/2023

The NHL and MLB post All-Star Systems are similar.  Both are based on placing wagers on teams 10+ games over .500 and chasing one on a heavily favored homestamd.  Both always win.  Neither has has a losing season.  I have used both systems a bit with a small profit.  My qualm is with the juice.  -200 and -300 can get ridiculous quickly.  Before the second half starts, maybe the community here on Covers can come up.with a betting progression to navigate the slippery slope that following this system can be.

Here is the Gold Standard.  This is DanRules24's progression for the Hockey 2 Team Parlay,. The ML for his parlay can be anywhere from -125 - +400 :

1x, 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 12x, 18x, 25x = 74x

I came up with this for -150 for a 3 game chase

1x, 3x, 6x = 10x

How about for -200 thru -300?

@Surfer2

DanRules_24 used a Labby progression for his Post All Star system.  It helps... a little.

As far as odds nearing -300 you can always play the PL.  Just a thought.

I have used a Labby playing roulette.  I would try to win $5 playing red/black.  I set it up like this :

5

If I won, I would begin again.  If I lost, the line would look like this :

5 - 5

I would bet $10.  If I lost, the line would look like this :

5 - 5 - 10

Next bet would be $15.  Correct me if I am wrong, but say the system is showing a play on a team that is -200.  I see the line after 1 loss looking like this.

5 - 10

The next bet is  to win $15.  If that loses it is looking like :

5 - 10 - 30

This makes a "C" game a $70 wager to win $5.  Maybe before wagering on the "C" game, do this instead.

5 - 10 - 10

5 - 5 - 5 - 5

That is the best I can come up with.  I realize I am guarding against an unlikely scenerio.  The NHL and MLB Post All-Star Systems are based on semi-gross mismatches involving contenders for both the playoffs and the #1 Pick.  The system almost never goes to a "C" game.  My old way was to pocket the money on A and B games, and make an A game sized bet on any C games, incurring a small loss.  If there is better way to run a Labby, please let me know.

By the way, I did alright with roulette.  There was a casino on the way home from a 3 month job and I would stop daily, trying for $50.  It went well for a couple weeks until I went on a run of something like 7 straight spins where I lost, then win something like 2 out of 10.  I took a sizable loss, went home, and the next day it was 1 for 8 followed by 0 for 5.  I guess if roulette could be conquered, everyone would already be playing it ?? 

I jusr re-read my last post.  I have no idea how thise two question marks popped up at the end. 

So, the way I interpreted the way DanRules24 used a Labby line is this: the goal is to win 1 unit on play 1; otherwise, play to win .5 unit.  So yes, your line looks correct.  But you start with a line of 5 - 5, assuming $10 units.  A game 1 win nets you 10, and a loss makes the line 5 - 5 - 20 on a -200 bet.

Thanks NMGolf.  I thought I had it right.  The system is steep juice with high winning percentage any way you slice it.  Fortunately, it is only a 3 game chase.  

FYI, the system is going to be tracked in the Winter Sports 2022-2023 Google sheets.  The sheet is named NHL PAS.  We can track it here as well, but I would prefer to do it in 1 place.  I'm fine with whatever everyone wants to do though.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HOO5SpsTeg2_8aUodurF61ZPylF10pYJeg2gx1XNDGs/

BTW the first chase begins Tuesday, 2/7.  Good luck all! 

I re-read the entire original thread.  The thread covers 5 seasons.  2 of the seasons, including the inaugural one, went undefeated.  3 seasons suffered 1 loss.  Also, I noticed that after around March 20th, most seasons started to get a bit dangerous with teams resting stars in order to preserve them for the Playoffs.  There were lots of comments about juice but the over-all win %  is around 66.7%.  Most of the vets had no problem with the juice by using a Labby. 

Correction - Most of the vets got around the juice by using a labby.  Not exactly no problems with it.

Good catch. Here's a note in my spreadsheet regarding that...

"Do not play the last weekend, esp. if teams are sitting players (cut off last day of March?)"

Mnt @ Car today is supposed to be a fouble bet because one is from the fade side and the other is from the wi side.  The line on Bovada is -.450.  Ouch.  

I've noticed quite a few of these plays have some pretty high odds.  WPG just suffered the 1st loss since the 2018 season.  Good thing the odds were fairly low for all 3 games, and the result was -11.2 units, depending on the odds you got for each play.

I was looking at 1 of my sheets in my NHL Systems spreadsheet, and I found this note...

"No new plays after 3/15; all systems turn to shit"

So, my last new chase on any system will be 3/15.  WPG is killing me right now, and they are involved in more than 1 system for me.  The worst part is Vegas odds on them are really high every game.  I'm just going to skip them every time they come up.  WPG has lost 6 of their last 7, and 8 of their last 10, including a 5-game losing streak.