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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    Alt Line NFL system - All picks inside

    ChanceP
    tbRays
    Tomspeople
    STEVEPERRY
    Journey1
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    Views: 1038
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    ChanceP
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    Posted: Sep. 28, 2008 - 7:36 PM ET #1

    Tonite:
     
    Chicago -3.5 (+224)   $200 for $448
    Alternate Line
     
     
    Will explain the system later tonite or tomorrow, just wanna get it in here before game starts. Not anything revolutionary, ive t5ried these alt lines before with varying success and Im gonna giv it another shot. Ill explain all logic in my next post, GL
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    Tonite:
     
    Chicago -3.5 (+224)   $200 for $448
    Alternate Line
     
     
    Will explain the system later tonite or tomorrow, just wanna get it in here before game starts. Not anything revolutionary, ive t5ried these alt lines before with varying success and Im gonna giv it another shot. Ill explain all logic in my next post, GL
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2008 - 4:22 AM ET #2

    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    Tonite:
     
    Chicago -3.5 (+224)   $200 for $448
    Alternate Line
     
     
    Will explain the system later tonite or tomorrow, just wanna get it in here before game starts. Not anything revolutionary, ive t5ried these alt lines before with varying success and Im gonna giv it another shot. Ill explain all logic in my next post, GL

     

     

    YTD - (1-0) +$448

     

    Nice start to the system but geez, the bears offense is brutal. Anyways, handicapping actually has nothing to do with this system, its all about the line.

     

    The system is basically this : Bet the Alternate Line (the -3.5) on any +3 dog. Not sure how many places have the -3.5 ALT/LINE but my local has it and I also saw it at Pinnacle at +237 (higher than the +224 I got) before game time. This system has only been back-tested for 2 years and the first few weeks of this season but here i what Im seeing. These +3 dogs have been covering the spread by 7 points or more between 36-40% of the time. If all the lines we catch are just +200 in this spot we only need to go 33% to break-even so I feel with over +200 on most games and the games hitting at 36%+ for the past few years Im gonna give it a shot. I feel as if this is good value for my money. Im also gonna research the sytem back as far as I can (hence my other thread on this foum). If its a dud beyond the last 3 years Ill quit it immediately but I think it has some merit, especially if you wanna incorporate a semi-progressive (fancy way of saying chase) money management system.

     

    Be back later in the week with more thoughts, GL

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    Tonite:
     
    Chicago -3.5 (+224)   $200 for $448
    Alternate Line
     
     
    Will explain the system later tonite or tomorrow, just wanna get it in here before game starts. Not anything revolutionary, ive t5ried these alt lines before with varying success and Im gonna giv it another shot. Ill explain all logic in my next post, GL

     

     

    YTD - (1-0) +$448

     

    Nice start to the system but geez, the bears offense is brutal. Anyways, handicapping actually has nothing to do with this system, its all about the line.

     

    The system is basically this : Bet the Alternate Line (the -3.5) on any +3 dog. Not sure how many places have the -3.5 ALT/LINE but my local has it and I also saw it at Pinnacle at +237 (higher than the +224 I got) before game time. This system has only been back-tested for 2 years and the first few weeks of this season but here i what Im seeing. These +3 dogs have been covering the spread by 7 points or more between 36-40% of the time. If all the lines we catch are just +200 in this spot we only need to go 33% to break-even so I feel with over +200 on most games and the games hitting at 36%+ for the past few years Im gonna give it a shot. I feel as if this is good value for my money. Im also gonna research the sytem back as far as I can (hence my other thread on this foum). If its a dud beyond the last 3 years Ill quit it immediately but I think it has some merit, especially if you wanna incorporate a semi-progressive (fancy way of saying chase) money management system.

     

    Be back later in the week with more thoughts, GL

     
    tbRays
    tbRays
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2008 - 11:12 AM ET #3

    how many units were you up for the past 2 seasons?
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    how many units were you up for the past 2 seasons?
     
    Tomspeople
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2008 - 2:45 PM ET #4

    Have you checked this for NCAAF also?
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    Have you checked this for NCAAF also?
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Sep. 29, 2008 - 3:16 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

    Have you checked this for NCAAF also?

     

    NO. I was doing it for MLB only on road teams giving the -1.5 on the road. Its amazing how often when the road team wins in MLB its by 2 or more. Im not sure if places have these lines for all the college games, something to look into. Ill drop u an email today tom, thanks

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomspeople:

    Have you checked this for NCAAF also?

     

    NO. I was doing it for MLB only on road teams giving the -1.5 on the road. Its amazing how often when the road team wins in MLB its by 2 or more. Im not sure if places have these lines for all the college games, something to look into. Ill drop u an email today tom, thanks

     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Oct. 20, 2008 - 7:52 PM ET #6

    Monday Nite Play 10/20
     
    Denver -3.5 (+197)  $200 for $394
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    Monday Nite Play 10/20
     
    Denver -3.5 (+197)  $200 for $394
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2008 - 5:04 AM ET #7

    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    Monday Nite Play 10/20
     
    Denver -3.5 (+197)  $200 for $394
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     

     

    YTD - (1-1) +$248

     

    Never had any shot tonite with 4 first half trnovers bu oh well. Ive missed a lot of games the last few weeks but Ive just been super busy wit poker and some other sports shit so I havent been able to keep up with this shit. I hope to in he future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChanceP:

    Monday Nite Play 10/20
     
    Denver -3.5 (+197)  $200 for $394
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

     

     

    YTD - (1-1) +$248

     

    Never had any shot tonite with 4 first half trnovers bu oh well. Ive missed a lot of games the last few weeks but Ive just been super busy wit poker and some other sports shit so I havent been able to keep up with this shit. I hope to in he future.

     
    STEVEPERRY
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2008 - 11:21 PM ET #8

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    ChanceP
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2008 - 11:45 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

     

    you are awesome dude.

     

    Oh wait, youre a fucking loser, thats what I meant to say, sorry

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    Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

     

    you are awesome dude.

     

    Oh wait, youre a fucking loser, thats what I meant to say, sorry

     
    STEVEPERRY
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2008 - 11:46 PM ET #10

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    STEVEPERRY
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2008 - 11:47 PM ET #11

    Oh by the way lick balls!!!!!!!!!!
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    Oh by the way lick balls!!!!!!!!!!
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2008 - 11:57 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

    Oh by the way lick balls!!!!!!!!!!

     

    Your contributions to this forum are invaluable. We all thank you. You are intelligent, mature, and all of us wish we could be you. GL

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    Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

    Oh by the way lick balls!!!!!!!!!!

     

    Your contributions to this forum are invaluable. We all thank you. You are intelligent, mature, and all of us wish we could be you. GL

     
    STEVEPERRY
    STEVEPERRY
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2008 - 12:45 AM ET #13

    She's just a small town girl, living in a lonely world, she took the midnight train going anywhere.
    He's just a city boy, born and raised in south Detroit, he took the midnight train going anywhere.
    A singer in a smokey room, smells of wine and cheap perfume.
    For a smile they can share the night, and it goes on and on and on and on.
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    She's just a small town girl, living in a lonely world, she took the midnight train going anywhere.
    He's just a city boy, born and raised in south Detroit, he took the midnight train going anywhere.
    A singer in a smokey room, smells of wine and cheap perfume.
    For a smile they can share the night, and it goes on and on and on and on.
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2008 - 12:58 AM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

    She's just a small town girl, living in a lonely world, she took the midnight train going anywhere.
    He's just a city boy, born and raised in south Detroit, he took the midnight train going anywhere.
    A singer in a smokey room, smells of wine and cheap perfume.
    For a smile they can share the night, and it goes on and on and on and on.

     

    Looks like that will be your last post in one of my threads since I dont post in the penalty box. good luck bud

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    Quote Originally Posted by STEVEPERRY:

    She's just a small town girl, living in a lonely world, she took the midnight train going anywhere.
    He's just a city boy, born and raised in south Detroit, he took the midnight train going anywhere.
    A singer in a smokey room, smells of wine and cheap perfume.
    For a smile they can share the night, and it goes on and on and on and on.

     

    Looks like that will be your last post in one of my threads since I dont post in the penalty box. good luck bud

     
    Journey1
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2008 - 1:18 AM ET #15

    No problem douchbag Since all you do is lose money anyway..good luck pal
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    No problem douchbag Since all you do is lose money anyway..good luck pal
     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2008 - 1:30 AM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by Journey1:

    No problem douchbag Since all you do is lose money anyway..good luck pal

     

    So you come into a thread of mine that Im up $ in and tell me "all i do is lose money". Wow, youre brilliant

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    Quote Originally Posted by Journey1:

    No problem douchbag Since all you do is lose money anyway..good luck pal

     

    So you come into a thread of mine that Im up $ in and tell me "all i do is lose money". Wow, youre brilliant

     
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Oct. 27, 2008 - 8:22 PM ET #17

    YTD - (1-1) +$248
     
    Tonite's Play -  IND -3.5 (+250)  $200 for $500
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    YTD - (1-1) +$248
     
    Tonite's Play -  IND -3.5 (+250)  $200 for $500
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
     
     
    ChanceP
    ChanceP
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    Posted: Nov. 13, 2008 - 7:12 PM ET #18

    YTD - (1-2) +$50
     
    TONITE:
     
    JETS -3.5 (+214)   $300 FOR $642
     
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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    YTD - (1-2) +$50
     
    TONITE:
     
    JETS -3.5 (+214)   $300 FOR $642
     
     
    GLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
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