I was just wondering how often a team goes 3 at home without a win or 3 on the road without a loss where the games are consecutive (meaning 3+ games in a row at home or on the road).
I'm starting the analyisis in 2005-06 because that's the first year with the shootout.
So far I've only tracked my beloved Kings and surprisingly I've found that if you chased their 3+ home series for a win and 3+ home series for a loss you would be 40-0 since 2005-2006!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I was just wondering how often a team goes 3 at home without a win or 3 on the road without a loss where the games are consecutive (meaning 3+ games in a row at home or on the road).
I'm starting the analyisis in 2005-06 because that's the first year with the shootout.
So far I've only tracked my beloved Kings and surprisingly I've found that if you chased their 3+ home series for a win and 3+ home series for a loss you would be 40-0 since 2005-2006!
They are looking at 40-1 square in the face tonight, considering that they have only beaten Detroit 1 out of the last 10 times they have played them at home.
GL
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They are looking at 40-1 square in the face tonight, considering that they have only beaten Detroit 1 out of the last 10 times they have played them at home.
They are looking at 40-1 square in the face tonight, considering that they have only beaten Detroit 1 out of the last 10 times they have played them at home.
GL
No they aren't because they already won the first game of this homestand.
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Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:
They are looking at 40-1 square in the face tonight, considering that they have only beaten Detroit 1 out of the last 10 times they have played them at home.
GL
No they aren't because they already won the first game of this homestand.
I was just wondering how often a team goes 3 at home without a win or 3 on the road without a loss where the games are consecutive (meaning 3+ games in a row at home or on the road).
This would be thier 3rd at home without a win if the Wings beat them tonight.
So actually you are playing to win one game in the first 3 at home instead of what you posted (just losing 3 in a row at home ?)
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Quote Originally Posted by KINGFANJEFF:
I was just wondering how often a team goes 3 at home without a win or 3 on the road without a loss where the games are consecutive (meaning 3+ games in a row at home or on the road).
This would be thier 3rd at home without a win if the Wings beat them tonight.
So actually you are playing to win one game in the first 3 at home instead of what you posted (just losing 3 in a row at home ?)
I would like to help with some numbers work, I'm not sure if I fully understand.... if there is a 5 game home stand for, say L.A. and they lost the first 2 and are about to play their 3rd... you're saying they're gonna win the next game???
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I would like to help with some numbers work, I'm not sure if I fully understand.... if there is a 5 game home stand for, say L.A. and they lost the first 2 and are about to play their 3rd... you're saying they're gonna win the next game???
I would like to help with some numbers work, I'm not sure if I fully understand.... if there is a 5 game home stand for, say L.A. and they lost the first 2 and are about to play their 3rd... you're saying they're gonna win the next game???
No. It's a 3 game chase just like in expert capper's thread except no consideration is being given to a teams home record (or road record.)
So you are betting each game until you have a winning bet. But I'm looking at home teams (for a win) with a home stand of 3 or more games and a road team (for a loss) with a road trip of 3 or more games.
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Quote Originally Posted by phil_bar13:
I would like to help with some numbers work, I'm not sure if I fully understand.... if there is a 5 game home stand for, say L.A. and they lost the first 2 and are about to play their 3rd... you're saying they're gonna win the next game???
No. It's a 3 game chase just like in expert capper's thread except no consideration is being given to a teams home record (or road record.)
So you are betting each game until you have a winning bet. But I'm looking at home teams (for a win) with a home stand of 3 or more games and a road team (for a loss) with a road trip of 3 or more games.
not sure if these numbers are useful but i do a system i call NHL road fade. (unsure if its posted anywhere else on the forum - if so apologies, not trying to take credit from anyone) basically i fade a team to lose 1 game on a 3 game or more road trip. the results for this season are as follows:
overall...86 - 4 (bos,ana,minn,chi all won road trips)
Eastern Conference - 45 - 1 (bos won road trip)
Western Conference - 41 - 3 (ana,minn,chi won road trips)
With a little bit of obvious capping (ie reduce units on top teams such as bos, det, sjs, chi or take 0.5 lines) its has been possible to make some nice units from this and reduce the risk/losses....hope you find this useful...
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not sure if these numbers are useful but i do a system i call NHL road fade. (unsure if its posted anywhere else on the forum - if so apologies, not trying to take credit from anyone) basically i fade a team to lose 1 game on a 3 game or more road trip. the results for this season are as follows:
overall...86 - 4 (bos,ana,minn,chi all won road trips)
Eastern Conference - 45 - 1 (bos won road trip)
Western Conference - 41 - 3 (ana,minn,chi won road trips)
With a little bit of obvious capping (ie reduce units on top teams such as bos, det, sjs, chi or take 0.5 lines) its has been possible to make some nice units from this and reduce the risk/losses....hope you find this useful...
not sure if these numbers are useful but i do a system i call NHL road fade. (unsure if its posted anywhere else on the forum - if so apologies, not trying to take credit from anyone) basically i fade a team to lose 1 game on a 3 game or more road trip. the results for this season are as follows:
overall...86 - 4 (bos,ana,minn,chi all won road trips)
Eastern Conference - 45 - 1 (bos won road trip)
Western Conference - 41 - 3 (ana,minn,chi won road trips)
With a little bit of obvious capping (ie reduce units on top teams such as bos, det, sjs, chi or take 0.5 lines) its has been possible to make some nice units from this and reduce the risk/losses....hope you find this useful...
Thanks English Gent. That is useful. I suspect the numbers will be similar over the last three years.
Just looking at your stats for this year, all of those losses could possibly have been eliminated by eliminating good teams from the system....kind of like Expert Capper's original premise with the home chase.
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Quote Originally Posted by English_Gent:
not sure if these numbers are useful but i do a system i call NHL road fade. (unsure if its posted anywhere else on the forum - if so apologies, not trying to take credit from anyone) basically i fade a team to lose 1 game on a 3 game or more road trip. the results for this season are as follows:
overall...86 - 4 (bos,ana,minn,chi all won road trips)
Eastern Conference - 45 - 1 (bos won road trip)
Western Conference - 41 - 3 (ana,minn,chi won road trips)
With a little bit of obvious capping (ie reduce units on top teams such as bos, det, sjs, chi or take 0.5 lines) its has been possible to make some nice units from this and reduce the risk/losses....hope you find this useful...
Thanks English Gent. That is useful. I suspect the numbers will be similar over the last three years.
Just looking at your stats for this year, all of those losses could possibly have been eliminated by eliminating good teams from the system....kind of like Expert Capper's original premise with the home chase.
Actually SRTZEE started a thread similar to this. However, I believe just the home teams were being looked at. I even suggested looking at road teams as well... Let's just say, I didn't get too far and stopped posting.
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Quote Originally Posted by kingme:
You all know how this chase analysis ends...
Nothing to see here move along folks.
Actually SRTZEE started a thread similar to this. However, I believe just the home teams were being looked at. I even suggested looking at road teams as well... Let's just say, I didn't get too far and stopped posting.
in all fairness the chase analysis doesnt always end badly...i use a couple of different chase systems...one being SRTZEE home chase, one being a chase on road teams on 3 or more games which is 91-3 at the minute and the NHL road fade i use which is 86-4....i am up a serious amount of units considering i am around 240-10 with each loss around 12 units each average...you do the math... a unit is what you make it....i mean on the road fade system do you realise neither DET or SJS has won a road trip of 3+ games yet this season....there is $$$ to be made especially for a sharp bettor who looks at each series in isolation....anyway BOL to all...
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QUOTE Originally Posted by kingme:
You all know how this chase analysis ends...
Nothing to see here move along folks.
in all fairness the chase analysis doesnt always end badly...i use a couple of different chase systems...one being SRTZEE home chase, one being a chase on road teams on 3 or more games which is 91-3 at the minute and the NHL road fade i use which is 86-4....i am up a serious amount of units considering i am around 240-10 with each loss around 12 units each average...you do the math... a unit is what you make it....i mean on the road fade system do you realise neither DET or SJS has won a road trip of 3+ games yet this season....there is $$$ to be made especially for a sharp bettor who looks at each series in isolation....anyway BOL to all...
in all fairness the chase analysis doesnt always end badly...i use a couple of different chase systems...one being SRTZEE home chase, one being a chase on road teams on 3 or more games which is 91-3 at the minute and the NHL road fade i use which is 86-4....i am up a serious amount of units considering i am around 240-10 with each loss around 12 units each average...you do the math... a unit is what you make it....i mean on the road fade system do you realise neither DET or SJS has won a road trip of 3+ games yet this season....there is $$$ to be made especially for a sharp bettor who looks at each series in isolation....anyway BOL to all...
Exactly . Just be careful and try to jump off once things start evening out.
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Quote Originally Posted by English_Gent:
in all fairness the chase analysis doesnt always end badly...i use a couple of different chase systems...one being SRTZEE home chase, one being a chase on road teams on 3 or more games which is 91-3 at the minute and the NHL road fade i use which is 86-4....i am up a serious amount of units considering i am around 240-10 with each loss around 12 units each average...you do the math... a unit is what you make it....i mean on the road fade system do you realise neither DET or SJS has won a road trip of 3+ games yet this season....there is $$$ to be made especially for a sharp bettor who looks at each series in isolation....anyway BOL to all...
Exactly . Just be careful and try to jump off once things start evening out.
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