3-Game NBA Chase

Hi,

waiting for the MLB to start, I started yesterday to put one of my systems also into a NBA. In MLB it was quite successful for several year, yet I made a break for 2-3 years. Got a child, had no time to follow my strategies properly, lost dumb money, decided to give it some time. So, now I'm back an will try to revive my systems, that need the least effort to maintain :)

It's a classic 3-game chase, based on my Powerrankings and backtesting was quite promising. Now, I'm going for a 

first live-test. 

MLB is a little bit stronger regarding strike-rate (avoiding a sweep is quite a motivation it seems), but NBA is 

ATS and Total, so odds help to reduce the effect of lost series.

I'll use a bank of 1,000 units, aiming to win one unit per game played.

I will post my bets and my results here, if you are interested in discussion, please feel free to join.

Powerrankings are based on several absolute and relative statistics (e.g. total Def-Rebounds makes no sense to me - 

I like the Def Reb / Opp Off Reb-Ratio much more).

With best regards,

Thasian

First games were yesterday:

Lakers Under WON

Fade Knicks WON

Fade Suns LOST -1.14U -> B-Bet on 03/16/2019

Rockets Over LOST -1.01 -> B-Bet on 03/17/2019

Current result of Series finished:

A: 2 

B: 0

C: 0

Lost: 0

+2U

For the early game today:

Fade Hawks:

Celtics -10.0: 0.99 to win 1.00 

I will also later post the related bets to:

Back Warriors

Warriors Over

Fade Cavaliers

B-Bet: Fade Suns

All bets for today:

B-Bets:
Fade-Suns: Pelicans -2.5: 3.27 to win 3.14

A-Bets:
Fade Hawks: Celtics -10.0: 0.99 to win 1.00 
Back Warriors: Warriors +1.0: 1.00 to win 1.00
Warriors Over: Warriors @Thunder O230.0: 1.04 to win 1.00
Fade Cavs: Mavericks -6.5: 1.07 to win 1.00

B-Bets: 

Rockets Over: Twolves @Rockets: O225.5: 3.13 to win 3.01

Fade Hawks: Hawks @Magic: Magic -8.0: 3.08 to win 2.99

A-Bets:

Back Raptors: Raptors +1.0 @Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00

Twolves Over: Twolves @Rockets: O225.5: 1.05 to win 1.00

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:


B-Bets:  
Rockets Over: Twolves @Rockets: O225.5: 3.13 to win 3.01 
Fade Hawks: Hawks @Magic: Magic -8.0: 3.08 to win 2.99   

A-Bets: 
Back Raptors: Raptors +1.0 @Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00 
Twolves Over: Twolves @Rockets: O225.5: 1.05 to win 1.00 

So, Rockets go to C.. very early, but as stated in the first post: Even some losers are expected. So lets see if they go back to high-scoring against the Hawks tomorrow.

Raptors.. well.. losing Q4 by 9 points, I had some hope after they rebounded in Q3 and took the lead..

March 18th, 2019

C-Bets:
Fade Suns: Bulls +1.5: 7.13 to win 7.41

B-Bets:
Fade Cavs: Pistons -5.0: 4.36 to win 3.07
Warriors Over: Warriors @Spurs: O226.0: 2.81 to win 3.04
Back Raptors: Raptors -12.0 v Knicks: 3.38 to win 3.07

A-Bets:
Fade Knicks: Raptors -12.0 v Knicks: 1.10 to win 1.00
Back Jazz: Jazz -5.0 v Wizards: 1.04 to win 1.00



Completed Series:
A: 3
B: 1
C: 0
Lost: 0
+5.0

Running Series:
A: Fade Knicks, Back Jazz
B: Fade Cavs, Warriors Over, Back Raptors, Twolves Over
C: Rockets Over, Fade Suns

Upcoming: Back Bucks, Fade Hawks
Probably: Wizards Over from 03/20, Back Tblazers from 03/20.

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:


March 18th, 2019  

C-Bets:
Fade Suns: Bulls +1.5: 7.13 to win 7.41 

B-Bets:
Fade Cavs: Pistons -5.0: 4.36 to win 3.07  -> C-Bet vs Bucks on March, 20th
Warriors Over: Warriors @Spurs: O226.0: 2.81 to win 3.04  -> C-Bet @Twolves today 
Back Raptors: Raptors -12.0 v Knicks: 3.38 to win 3.07 

A-Bets:
Fade Knicks: Raptors -12.0 v Knicks: 1.10 to win 1.00 
Back Jazz: Jazz -5.0 v Wizards: 1.04 to win 1.00 

The Cav'S win surprised me. Let's see if they can keep it up against the Buck.
Under of Warriors/Spurs was okay - I think against the Twolves we will a LOT of scoring. I adjusted my PRs a little bit, an had Warriors/Spurs not as the Over-pick it was before, but still. The chase should be okay.

Completed series:
A: 5
B: 2
C: 1

+12.0

Running Series:
A: - (but some upcoming, I'll see to post them about 4:30 to 5pm latest..)
B: Twolves Over (matches with C-Bet on Warriors Over)
C: Rockets Over, Warriors Over, Fade Cavs

March, 19th

C-Bets:
Rockets Over: Rockets @Hawks: O231.5: 8.28 to win 7.14
Warriors Over: Warriors @Twolves: O230.0: 7.12 to win 6.85

B-Bets:
Twolves Over: Warriors @Twolves: O230.0: 3.17 to win 3.05

A-Bets:
Back Bucks: Bucks -11.0 v Lakers: 1.00 to win 1.00
Fade Hawks: Rockets -8.0 @Hawks: 0.91 to win 1.00


Starting tomorrow:
fade Knicks, Back Raptors, Back Jazz, Wizards Over, Back Tblazers.

Good luck everyone :)

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:


March, 19th  

C-Bets:
Rockets Over: Rockets @Hawks: O231.5: 8.28 to win 7.14  -12.42
Warriors Over: Warriors @Twolves: O230.0: 7.12 to win 6.85 -10.97

B-Bets:
Twolves Over: Warriors @Twolves: O230.0: 3.17 to win 3.05  -> C-Bet on March 21th, @Hornets

A-Bets:
Back Bucks: Bucks -11.0 v Lakers: 1.00 to win 1.00 
Fade Hawks: Rockets -8.0 @Hawks: 0.91 to win 1.00

Record:
A: 7
B: 2
C: 1
Lost: 2

-9.39

March, 20th

C-Bets:
Fade Cavs: Bucks -9.5 @Cavaliers: 8.11 to win 8.43

B-Bets:
-

A-Bets:
Back Jazz: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00
Fade Knicks: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00
Back Raptors: Raptors +5.5 @Thunder: 1.13 to win 1.00
Back Tblazers: Tblazers -10.0 v Mavericks: 0.98 to win 1.00

... and no Wizards Over ;)

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:


March, 20th   

C-Bets:
Fade Cavs: Bucks -9.5 @Cavaliers: 8.11 to win 8.43 -13.54

B-Bets:- 

A-Bets:
Back Jazz: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 
Fade Knicks: Jazz -11.5 @Knicks: 1.03 to win 1.00 
Back Raptors: Raptors +5.5 @Thunder: 1.13 to win 1.00 
Back Tblazers: Tblazers -10.0 v Mavericks: 0.98 to win 1.00  

Portland losing by 10 in the last quarter was a little annoying.
Another C-Bet lost and, of course, the Wizards went way over.

Record:
A: 10
B: 2
C: 1
Lost: 3

-19.93

C-Bets:
TWolves Over: Twolves @Hornets: O227.5: 7.51 to win 7.22

B-Bets: -

A-Bets:
Fade Hawks: Jazz -7.0 @Hawks: 1.03 to win 1.00
Back Jazz: Jazz -7.0 @Hawks: 1.03 to win 1.00
Fade Suns: Pistons -7.0 @Suns: 1.03 to win 1.00

Quote Originally Posted by Thasian:


C-Bets:
TWolves Over: Twolves @Hornets: O227.5: 7.51 to win 7.22  -11.73

B-Bets: -

A-Bets:
Fade Hawks: Jazz -7.0 @Hawks: 1.03 to win 1.00 
Back Jazz: Jazz -7.0 @Hawks: 1.03 to win 1.00 
Fade Suns: Pistons -7.0 @Suns: 1.03 to win 1.00

Again a total loss. So 3 of 4 Losses are on totals - I should probably not have gone that way.

Record:
A: 11
B: 2
C: 1
Lost: 4

-30.66

Without totals:
A: 10
B: 2
C: 1
Lost: 1

+3.46

March, 22th

C-Bets: -

B-Bets: -

A-Bets:
Fade Knicks: Nuggets -11.0 v Knicks: 1.06 to win 1.00
Back Raptors: Raptors -2.0 v Thunder: 1.02 to win 1.00
Fade Cavs: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00
Back Clippers: Clippers -6.5 @Cavaliers: 1.04 to win 1.00
Back Bucks: Bucks -7.5 v Heat: 0.98 to win 1.00

Record:

A: 13
B: 2
C: 1
Lost: 4
-28.66

Damn, early game..

Celtics -4.0 @Hornets: 0.97 to win 1.00

March, 23th

C-Bets: -

B-Bets: 
Back Jazz: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 2.91 to win 3.03
Back Tblazers: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 3.19 to win 2.98
Fade Hawks: Seventysixers -8.0 @Hawks: 2.71 to win 3.03

A-Bets:
Fade Hornets: Celtics -4.0 @Hornets: 0.97 to win 1.00
Fade Bulls: Jazz -10.5 @Bulls: 0.97 to win 1.00
Fade Pistons: Tblazers -5.0 v Pistons: 1.07 to win 1.00
Back Warriors: Warriors -13.5 v Mavericks: 1.04 to win 1.00
Fade Suns: Kings -11.0 v Suns: 0.96 to win 1.00

March 24th, Early game

No C-Bets

B-Bets:
Back Clippers: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 3.16 to win 3.04

A-Bets:
Fade Knicks: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 1.04 to win 1.00

Rest following later.

March 24th, complete

No C-Bets

B-Bets:
Back Clippers: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 3.16 to win 3.04
Back Raptors: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02
Fade Cavs: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 3.10 to win 3.04
Fade Hornets: Raptors -10.5 v Hornets: 2.93 to win 3.02
Back Warriors: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 3.10 to win 3.04

A-Bets:

Fade Knicks: Clippers -10.0 @Knicks: 1.04 to win 1.00
Back Bucks: Bucks -12.5 v Cavaliers: 1.01 to win 1.00
Fade Pistons: Warriors -10.0 v Pistons: 1.03 to win 1.00

Stopping tracking now.

Doesn't work on ATS as good as I'd like.

Moneyline seems to work as it does in MLB, but I'm not willing to pay the extreme lines.

e.g. raptors, current series:

A: 1.69 to win 1.00

B: 14.39 to win 3.69

C: With a line of -13.5 probably something about 293.54 to win 19.08