[26-23] system plays 1/18/2011

NHL
Col / TB under 6

Carol -1.5 ( +245 )   SU is (-115)

BTW, the NBA plays are better if you compare their totals with THEIR own Averages.  I've posted a video showing each teams' average total.  I contest that since the STD for totals is 8, then we're much better going with 3/4 previous games using each team previous 2 games as 8 or worse on one side of their individual averages to find value in Mean Regression. 

WhY?  because teams like NY and PHO average over 213 per night in their totals, and others are in the lower 190s.  Too much of a swing for an entire NBA rule. 

NHL and NFL, on the other hand, are sound for having overall league values to look for.  Cheers

NCAAB is better if we have conferences with common averages and STDs. 


I've posted the Big Ten and the Big East. 


What would you guys like next?

How about 1h strategies?

something that shows profit and is easy to read

well, I'm not a 1H guy, I like playing the opposite way on 2nd halfs only. 

good idea PrimeTime, easy to read and profits for sure.

Tafter, im working on a strategy using "if" wages. I need your input and number crunching as well. Stats of games dont matter here it the way you use the "if" wages strategy. I wil either send it to you tonight or tomorrw.

I'm only a straight bet guys.  I do an occasional 2 team parlay. . help me understand....

what's an if wager? 

I'll gladly crunch the numbers though. 

If bets are for money management purposes. You wager a $100 on team A, "if" they win the $100 is applied to another team of your choice without risking the original $100, just juice.

ie. 1. Chicago Bears -10 $110 to win $100 "if" they win

    2. New York Giants -7 $110 to win $100.

You can win $200 for the price of a single wager..

Okay, thx

i sometimes will do this.....

$100 chi -10

25 parlay fading chicago with Giants -7 as a hedge

Love em.

Correct, "if" wages allow you to choose as many different teams or games as you want and all games are a go until one loses.. For the purpose of my little experiment I'm only going to use 3 teams. Please feel free to experiment with different $ amounts and a variety of teams in your "if"s: here we go, my examples are going to be based off of the remaining two NFL games, what i need help is in swapping around dollar amounts, is it better to increase the straight bets or the second game in the IF? This is just me trying to come up with a system strategy leaving out stats,trends, etc.. Please send me thoughts and opinions: Positive and negative feedback please that is helpful to all. This is something I  trying to do to help everyone. thanks

Pitt - win 50 ,  then GB - win 100 

Here is my thinking, bet the first game (based on the time) as your second pick in your IF bet and put the later game as you first pick..

If GB wins you know you already have a shot at winning 100 if pitt can win. If Pitt loses it doesn't matter what happend in the GB game and you'll lose the 50.

So here is what i'm  trying to determine, if GB wins should you bet 50 on the nyj straight? if pitt wins you win 50 plus the 100 from gb and lose 50 from nyj. But you just gauranteed yourself 100. If Pitt loses and nyj win they cancel one another out and it's all a wash.

there's five ways this can go:

IF: pitt 50 (W) / GB 100 (W)   ** straight: nyj 50 (L) = net +100 

IF: pitt 50 (W) / GB 100 (L)   ** no bet on nyj, worst you lose 50

IF: pitt 50 (L) / GB 100 (W)   ** straight: nyj 50 (W) = net 0

IF: pitt 50 (W) / GB 100 (L)   ** straight: nyj 50 (L) = net -100 

IF: pitt 50 (L) / GB 100 (L)   ** straight: nyj 50 (W) = net 0

i know these 5 here don't seem to break the bank, but i'm thinking there should be a way to minimize your loss by using this type of strategy with if bets

why not just take the bears +550 to win the super bowl, then do both ifs for if GB wins?

fade minn NHL looks good tomorrow

under clev / pho tomorrow too

utah / nj under looks fits too

memphis / NO over too