I was thinking of back testing how I would be to chase a 1st inning score:yes for every series on the board. Basically play that there will be at least 1 run scored in the 1st inning of any game in a series. I have done a little back testing starting in June. Very early results look promising.
Would use a labby line in the chases.
It would also be a lot of plays- up to 16 plays every 3-4 days.
If it looks probable- will try to start it up at the All-Star break.
I will post back test results as I get to them
GLTA
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I was thinking of back testing how I would be to chase a 1st inning score:yes for every series on the board. Basically play that there will be at least 1 run scored in the 1st inning of any game in a series. I have done a little back testing starting in June. Very early results look promising.
Would use a labby line in the chases.
It would also be a lot of plays- up to 16 plays every 3-4 days.
If it looks probable- will try to start it up at the All-Star break.
I just saw Degengamblers thread. He has a great angle with the 1st inning score. Will back test that when I have a chance & post some results over there.
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I just saw Degengamblers thread. He has a great angle with the 1st inning score. Will back test that when I have a chance & post some results over there.
I just saw Degengamblers thread. He has a great angle with the 1st inning score. Will back test that when I have a chance & post some results over there.
We should combine forces MrMannix - I am still looking into improving and adding additional data points to the system. If you could backtest to see what works that would be great. Download the latest version (V2)
I included logic to download "by inning scoring" from Don Best (Don Best Data Tab) - you may be able to use it to Back Test.
Right now i'm only looking at the following:
However, I was thinking maybe looking at the following as well:
% that team scores in 1st inning in each series
% that team scores in A or B game in series
Pitcher % scoring in 1st inning
For the first one - the idea is to filter out teams that only score in 1 game in the series - we want teams that score in more than one game in a series
For the 2nd one we want to filter out teams that only score in 1st inning on C games - would rather win on the A or B
For the 3rd one - maybe we can also look at pitchers in the series and make sure their 1st inning scoring is over / under a certain %
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Quote Originally Posted by MrMannix:
I just saw Degengamblers thread. He has a great angle with the 1st inning score. Will back test that when I have a chance & post some results over there.
We should combine forces MrMannix - I am still looking into improving and adding additional data points to the system. If you could backtest to see what works that would be great. Download the latest version (V2)
I included logic to download "by inning scoring" from Don Best (Don Best Data Tab) - you may be able to use it to Back Test.
Right now i'm only looking at the following:
However, I was thinking maybe looking at the following as well:
% that team scores in 1st inning in each series
% that team scores in A or B game in series
Pitcher % scoring in 1st inning
For the first one - the idea is to filter out teams that only score in 1 game in the series - we want teams that score in more than one game in a series
For the 2nd one we want to filter out teams that only score in 1st inning on C games - would rather win on the A or B
For the 3rd one - maybe we can also look at pitchers in the series and make sure their 1st inning scoring is over / under a certain %
I've been thinking about this strategy for quite a bit and this is the best looking setup I've seen. Does the latest version of your doc auto-import the TR stats or do you have to import those manually?
I've been thinking about this strategy for quite a bit and this is the best looking setup I've seen. Does the latest version of your doc auto-import the TR stats or do you have to import those manually?
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