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!! - Breaks the juice....

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
(I would like to show images of real bets but i don.t see here where I can do that)
I give a simple example...Note that all this is happennng in live games.
 Bet365- Dallas - Mavericks + 190,5 points ...(1.90 )
 ppower-Dallas mavericks   - 193.5 ............( 1,90)
I Just think...I have account in those bookmakers and instead of two main lines I have only one...one  line is "incorrect" because the odd of one result is overvalued.
I can analyse from 2 perspectives.
One book is offering 1.90 for a result whose odd should be only 1,61..in the other book the odd should be 2.20.As the juice is arround 5% our bet will break the juice...
We have a margin of 3 points ( 10%) and i will bet only with this margin. So if I win i get a profit of 90 % and if lose, i will lose only the juice. How does it works?
If my margin increases I keep my valuescore...if my margin decreases to 0% i cancel my valuescore  ( I bet blocking my first bet in a simetrical result). 
A question very simple...What is the probability of not hit one  in six consecutive valuescore? 
1/64= 1.54% so we have 98% chances to not lose,,,
Really we can get many valuescores in basket, volleyball, tenis...
I Use 3 or 4 bookmakers but you can chose yours. Bet365, marathonbet, paddypower, bwin but there are others you can study. I have been limited by someone and in this moment we have not bookmakers in portugal ,. Nobody can bet,,,
If you have any doubt i am here and believe that is  a powerfull strategy. I use by a year with big results... Make tests, and comprove the efecteviness..






 

 
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Posted: #2
can you post some plays as an example; using the NBA as your nucleas? appreciate your effort
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3

Hello my friend, you bets to win or just for fun? I'd like to put here pictures of actual games but it seems that only accept text ... Can we do it? I bet in sports where my strategy is more profitable and that's the most important thing. Select the sports and markets where we bet because we like the teams and we think the team's going to win or lose, it's not the right way, sooner or later you're going to lose, no one WINS betting with the heart!!  You're going to bet on the nba and stay in front of the television set rooting for result is not? I've done it for a long. ..  But in answer to your question of course that applies to the nba but much better applies to ncaab. Here the opportunities to get valuscore are huge ... We often have variations of 5 points, that is likely on the order of 75%, depending on the bookmakers that you use? I don't know what the bookmakers use but if you tell me what are can then peek to help you ...

I'm a little surprised I'm sharing a strategy whose effectiveness is 98.5% and only you interested ... you understand right the concept?  If you have any questions says it's normal. I can't here the 25 pages of my study ma sprocurarei remove all the doubts. Too bad they don't here pictures or even videos, but I want to share everything with you.

 
Veteran
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Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1304
Posted: #4
Are you middling the live betting market between multiple books? I don't really understand what your doing. Sorry for the ignorance, thanks for sharing with us. You could post a link to google docs or email your 25 pages if you really want to share. Good luck in the future!
 
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Posted: #5
baia01

Don't be surprised! I am speaking on behalf of the silent majority. 98.5% is exceedingly solid, but yet you give no backtesting statistics, and state you have 25 pages to share, you also state you have variations of 75% relating to a 5pt spread, where are these % coming from? Your 25 pages of research?  Yes I comprehend your formulated concept, (most likely better than yourself) the most appliable commentary connected to systems&strategies is to connect; actually attach your plays to an innovated system, primarily American sports, and not the WNBA. what's happening now is the NHL, NFL, and soon to come, the NBA, "POST YOUR PLAYS" without them your thread has no value to anyone other than yourself...appreciate your effort time, and participation, an interesting concept, unfortunately it's incomplete to the masses that are trying to understand where you're coming from, and what objective you're trying to achieve..
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
Hello, realize the concept even better then I do not know what is your doubt. This strategy applies to sports where the live result changes very quickly, so please enter the American sports where it takes place.
I do not think has yet understood because they do not know where it comes from 75% ...
I am from Portugal and contrary to what you think I have no intention ...
If you are insinuating that I want to sell something is quite wrong ...
As I said I can not put here pictures, videos etc,,,
if you put a mail I envo you the 25 pages, videos, etc ... just realize that I want to share,,, put here after his testimony to the community to prove my intention .
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
i put here the mail i registered in covers:
 p.santos1119@gmail,com
If you are insterested contact.
If there are another way to put here  directly all files help me and I do that...thank you
 
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Posted: #8
thanks, I'll PM you no problem, 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 343
Posted: #9
To help understand your concept a bit more, can you provide a simple example of one game's scenario ? if you could, let us know what action you would place, what book you would place action and possibly the theory in why you placed the specific bet?
Scenario: 
LA Lakers @ SA Spurs O-U line pregame set at 198.5 (consistent line with all books)
After 1 quarter of play score is 24-17 SA
We check Live game O-U odds within following books:
PaddyPower - 191.5 (-110 or 1.90)
Bwin - 191 (-110 or 1.90)
Pinnacle - 189.5 (-110 or 1.90)
BetCris - 186.5 (-110 or 1.90)

What book(s) do you focus on? what bet(s) do you place? why?
Thanks for sharing an interesting concept & strategy.  GL
 
Veteran
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Posted: #10
baia01,

Thanks for the info and quick response.  After reviewing the info you provided,  this style of wagering is not for me.  Thanks for your time and sharing.  

All the best to you moving forward!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
of course we have only two options ;
over 186,5
under 191.5
Just think; I have only one line : over 186.5 / under 191.5 
Obviously we have an error on my line...what is the corret line ?
It does not matter...if i bett in ppower under 191.5  how much shooud pay betcris by this score? probabily 1.40 and is paiyng 1,90...in this way I bet in ppower and controll the score in betcris where I have more 20%...If I decide to bet in over 186.5 i think in the same way,,,If score runs in a negative diretion I have my margin to controll my bet and I can cancell losing only the juice,,,If sore runs in a poitive diretion I keep my bet ,,,So I need only to hit 1 in six valuescore...Really you are playing only with juice,,,
To get quicly valuescores in live the great idea would  be to creat a grou of friends and share by skype or teamspeaker for example...
If you have any doubt put here or send to my mail...
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
So you are basically playing in game middles, searching multiple books for the best lines.
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posts: 343
Posted: #13
So as I see it and described by you, its a middle play on varying lines, a strategy not so new to the sportsbook investing hobby.  Is there a money management strategy to go along with this to insinuate a 97.5% success rate?  if, so how does your paper describe this method ?  what would be the risk to profit ratio ? if using $100 as a unit profit, are you laying out $220 each scenario (possible 1 in 6) to gain the $10 in juice paid profit ?
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #14
Nothing of middles my friends...you don`t understood but I explain again
Consider unity stakes of 10.at odds.1.9...
I bet 10  and my bet run in two ways: positive or negative diretion.
 As i am playing with the margin I have the chance to manage:
positive diretion....I keep my bet and  I have a profit of 9,
negative diretion ...I have the chance to cancel my bet,,,I put 10 when the margin is annuled ( simetrical result) and I lose only 1 ...
 Considering the odd 1,9 if I lose 10 bets I Lose only 9 because I cancel my valuescore,,,In this case I need only to hit 1 in 9  to not lose...
A simple question ...What will be the probability to fail 9 consecutive bets wich probability is always greater than 60%,,,
Do you know anoter strategy that allows to you  get imediattly advantage from bookmakers? 
The probability of  each variation in main line is indexed by bookmakers and not for me ,,, I simply verify this and you can check ..the probability of sucess is done by a calculater and not invented ..do it your self 
If you have any doubt i help you
Thanks for your replyes ,

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