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Best ML bet for week 4 (shhhhh! survivor pool discussion)

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Posted: #1
Since nobody ever frequents the Streak Survivor Forum...I am going to put the discussion out here in this forum to generate some discussion...hopefully my Topic Heading is deceptive enough to throw Covers mods of my scent for a while....

Green Bay vs Denver:  The biggest spread on the board and most likely the most popular game this week to take.  Denver is a mess on offense, but GB hasn't really been all that impressive on D.  Shredded by Brees in the opener and shredded by rookie Cam Newton in the 2nd game.  Injuries didn't stop them from shutting down the Bears...but they are a train wreck on offense.  I think this is a solid play this week and will probably use with one of my picks.  The only thing that scares me is that Denver has put up 3 horrible performances and something tells me that this will be there best played game of the year...so just a tiny bit nervous.

Philly vs San Fran:  Another solid pick if Vick plays (and it looks like he will).  San Fran is not explosive enough on offense to hang with Philly.  Only concern is Vick getting injured or a bunch of TOs.  Looks like a very solid play.

TB vs Indy:  I am not a fan of saving my pick until Monday night...I hate sweating it out...you can't hide from the game...and everyone is in your ear hoping you lose.  Tampa is a solid team but does not light up the score board, so a key turnover or blown coverage can keep the pesky colts around too long for comfort, just ask PITT.   I will be staying away from this game.

Chicago vs Carolina: I think Chicago is a strong play.  I know Carolina has been a tough opponent so far this year, and the Bears looked like crap against GB, but the Bears D always steps it up when it needs too, and I don't see a rookie QB coming into Soldier and stomping Da Bears.  Like the Da Bears to pull away late.

Now the road teams that look good enough to take:

Saints vs Jags:  Love the saints in this spot.  Brees has absolutely killed it all year.  I think this game could easily be a blow out.

Atlanta vs Seattle:  A must win for ATL coming off a crushing loss to Tampa.  Gotta think they bounce back.

I have 2 picks in my league and I will be choosing between Green Bay, Philly, Chicago, and Saints.....

Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #2
Don't do CHI, CAR head coach has stacked his staff with members from all most every team he has to play.  CAR has the Special Teams coach from CHI and should be able to keep this game close, maybe have a chance to win it late.
 
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Posted: #3
Oh, and CAR also has the Defense line coach from CHI too. 
If its any help, the QB coach was from JAGs, and we know what happened there.  Gonna wait for 7 and hit CAR. This bet is bitter sweet for me as I have CAR und 4.5 games for the season.  Made the bet before I checked the coaching.....
 
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Posted: #4
i love all the picks except n.o laying 7 on road jax some how covers
 
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Posted: #5
how motivated will gb be 3-0 against an afc west team? broncos +13 or no play
 
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Posted: #6
Tampa Bay don't be scared... I mean who's going to beat the Bucs? Orlovsky or Painter?
 
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Posted: #7
Long time lurker first time poster.

Philly vs San Fran:  How healthy is Michael Vick? Too many concerns around Philly right now and it is not worth touching them until things are straightened out.

Saints vs Jags:  The Saints should be able to handle the Jags on the road, but I will wait until they are in the Superdome to use them.

Atlanta vs Seattle:  Another road game for Atlanta and while Seattle is a tough place to play, they need to find a way to pick up a win and return home before a Sunday night game with the Packers. I cannot offer Atlanta as an option on the road, though, especially with a few other viable options.

My choice would be Tampa(Staying in the NFC), after Tampa would be Green Bay and Chicago.


 
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Posted: #8
saints.     
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:

Oh, and CAR also has the Defense line coach from CHI too. 
If its any help, the QB coach was from JAGs, and we know what happened there.  Gonna wait for 7 and hit CAR. This bet is bitter sweet for me as I have CAR und 4.5 games for the season.  Made the bet before I checked the coaching.....

Agree...the whole chico rivera angle has me nervous.  I remember a preseason game last year maybe when he was D coordinator for the chargers..... where he just all out blitzed the bears all night long.  This guy still has a grudge and would love to stick it to the bears! 

I still think that the bears win, but i will be looking harder at some other games before I make my selection
 
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Posted: #10

Chodaz

What did you go with today? You got it easy with no spread! LOL

 
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Posted: #11
See here....

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=1010&sub=101109133


 
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Posted: #12
Survived.
 
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Posted: #13
Ate shit with Philly and pulled monkey out of ass with bears pick. 

Lets talk about other viable picks besides the G-Men?  Not seeing a great one???? Maybe Houston?
 
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Posted: #14

SU I'd look at Pats at home and maybe niners. TB in bad spot,short week and travel. Niners opened at -1 and it's -3 on tuesday. Sharpies likey.

GB also, their red hot.

 
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Posted: #15
NE scares me because the Jets are desperate.  Lot of bad blood here. I am sure the Bellicheat remembers the AFC divisional game last year and has revenge on his mind...but still.  

Niners suck balls on offense, so I am not a big fan of backing teams that are offensively challenged (think Tampa against colts).  But I feel ya on the short week cross country angle.

Looking thin besides G-Men....anybody backing Pitt this week?  
 
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Posted: #16

Texans have been much better on defense. Raiders have a good D line, but after that a sharp qb can gash them all day long. Have to look at some stats on that game still.

Lotsa coinflip games this week, Jags/bengals, vikes/zona.colts/cheifs, even bills somewhat, but philly is desperate as you said chodaz.

 
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Posted: #17
Chodaz, you survive this week?
 
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Posted: #18
 NYG

thought they would stuff it in for late win but instead pick 6...i really think they missed Jacobs.  Bradshaw is just not the pounder Jacobs is.  They struggled all day around the goal line.

Also got owned in fantasy, lost every bet I made that didn't push.  5-7 in my picks against the spread league with work, falling further behind.  Pretty much an ass kicker of a weekend.

Bounce back tonight on MNF large......just don't know who I am taking.
 
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Posted: #19
Ugh, tough luck on g-men. Hope you picked lions, had em for the squeaker cover at -6.5.
 
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Posted: #20
bears are fucking pathetic...coaching staff is retarded in game. that game reminded me of green bay/atlanta from sunday night

didn't bet on it.  i am so horrible with my picks right now.  i need a good pick to get some back this weekend
 
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Posted: #21
Here's couple of my nfl cash plays sunday. Under 47 skins, under 46.5 Lions and saints -5. GL chodaz.
 
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Posted: #22
Bears o-line is horrible, cutler did all he could to keep em in it. That was my main reason taking lions.
 
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Posted: #23
like those under plays

do you trust saints going on road game #3 in a row?
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:

like those under plays

do you trust saints going on road game #3 in a row?

Sorry, didn't get back here for a response. 2-1 on the plays. I was actually not liking saints as much as the spread rose.I decided to tease saints with cowboys, but saints still lost. Yeah 3  roadies is tough on any team,jets lost all 3!  Man unders went nuts,  10-3! it was coming with all the hi scoring and books inflating the overs.

 
 
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Posted: #25
kc is the pick for monday
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