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*~~~Zamigo World Cup~~~*

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Posted: #1

World Cup

0-0-0 (+/- 0.00 Units)



Futures:


To Qualify- Group A: Brazil/Croatia @ +125 (1.00 to win 1.25)

To Qualify- Group B: Spain/Chile @ +175 (1.00 to win 1.75)

To Qualify- Group F: Argentina/Bosnia @ -110 (1.10 to win 1.00)

To Qualify- Group H: Belgium/Russia @ +100 (1.00 to win 1.00)


To Qualify- Group C: Japan @ +110 (1.00 to win 1.10)


*Top Rest of the World Team: Japan @ +125 (1.00 to win 1.25)


To Reach Quarter-Final: France +100 (1.00 to win 1.00)

To Reach Quarter-Final: Uruguay +140  (1.00 to win 1.40)


Golden Boot Winner: Edin Dzeko @ +5,000 (0.25 to win 12.50)

Golden Boot Winner: Karim Benzema @ +3,000 (0.25 to win 7.50)

Golden Boot Winner: Edinson Cavani @ +6,500 (0.25 to win 16.25)

Golden Boot Winner: Thomas Muller @ +3,650 (0.25 to win 9.13)




*Rest of the World includes Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Iran---> Dead heat rules apply


I am happy to discuss anything and everything in regards to this tournament, all comments, questions, concerns are welcomed.

Vamos Colombia
 
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Posted: #2

Group C


Colombia is my team, and I will be rooting for them all tournament. HOWEVER, I have to say I think we are getting really terrible prices to back them in this group stage. I think they could easily struggle in this group, granted I wouldn’t be shocked if they performed well and won the group. While this may be regarded as one of the weaker groups, I actually think it is more difficult than it appears at first glance, because there aren’t any stand out weak teams, which means everyone will have 3 tough matches that could ultimately go either way. Japan have excellent talent and play a really nice game to watch. They attack very well.  I think they have the most value of all the teams in this group.

 
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Posted: #3
Zamigo!  Have a good tourney! I have some stake in Columbia to reach the quarters.  I hope I have not underestimated Japan, seeing a lot of love for them around these parts, I just don't see how their defense is going to hold up.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by PeterBlack:

Zamigo!  Have a good tourney! I have some stake in Columbia to reach the quarters.  I hope I have not underestimated Japan, seeing a lot of love for them around these parts, I just don't see how their defense is going to hold up.

agreed Peter about Japan's defense that is the question mark for me
 
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Posted: #5
I love the first 4 picks, see all those cashing. 
Not entirely sure about Japan but could see that coming as well. 
BoL 
 
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Posted: #6
Zamigo - hope you are well!

I love Colombian fuotie - big fan of At Nacional.

Question re today's friendly with Jordan . . . seems to me that today would be a good day for the Colombian offense to play very aggressively to see just where that unit stands in light of the loss of Falcao . . . I would expect the team to use today as a litmus test re the strength and capabilities of its offensive unit . . . Jordan seems like a good guinea pig.  Thoughts?
Disbarred
 
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Posted: #7
GL Zamigo, My wife is half Colombian so I'll be rooting for them by default
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by KaiserWilhelm:

I love the first 4 picks, see all those cashing. 
Not entirely sure about Japan but could see that coming as well. 
BoL 

Glad to hear that Kaiser

let's make some 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Disbarred:

Zamigo - hope you are well!

I love Colombian fuotie - big fan of At Nacional.

Question re today's friendly with Jordan . . . seems to me that today would be a good day for the Colombian offense to play very aggressively to see just where that unit stands in light of the loss of Falcao . . . I would expect the team to use today as a litmus test re the strength and capabilities of its offensive unit . . . Jordan seems like a good guinea pig.  Thoughts?

Of course disbarred my Nacional hermano...no opinion on today's friendly but I will be watching. I imagine this being their last friendly they will look to give a strong effort for at least 60 minutes but it's so hard to tell. One of the reasons I like Colombian futbol to begin with is the wildness there is to it, definitely less consistency but there is also a magic in that. That's why I love rooting for this team to you never really know what you'll get, they could be done in group stage or get flukey hot with miracle goals and end up in the semi-final. Going to be fun
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by DiamondJack:

GL Zamigo, My wife is half Colombian so I'll be rooting for them by default


My partner is full Colombiana...after years of enduring the extended family talking about me in Spanish I learned to speak it myself, and then went to live there for 2 months last year. Fell in love with the people, the cuisine, the futbol, and of course, the women. They have a wild, yet lovable style of play when things are clicking. Hopefully they can keep the opposition from scoring. If they can they might be in for a good run
 
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Posted: #11
Ribery is the first rain on my world cup parade

The way I saw it was that if France could win the group (as at the time I was confident they would) you would get them +100 to advance vs. Bosnia. A really likeable price for that situation. Now I am obviously less confident in the wager but what's done is done.

On the flipside, I really like this Bosnia team, and think that the value for them to reach the quarter-final has increased significantly with this injury. Thinking about making a play on it...


perhaps:

To Reach Quarter-Final: Bosnia @ +330




 
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Posted: #12
Looking at the group with most goals prop I think there is tremendous value in Group C @ +1225, the overall longshot. While Greece well known for playing the 0-0 game I think that you will see goals in their games this time out for a couple of reasons. Number 1 they are playing against 3 teams that play wide open games, that both like score and concede. Number 2, they are not as defensively solid as they once were, and will end up chasing the game down a goal if they try to play the way they had in the past. Greece's defensive stance does really well against other European sides, but I think against South American teams in particular it will struggle, and Greece are the only European side in this group. The other 3 matchups between Colombia, Japan, and Ivory Coast could all be shoot out type games with BTTS. Although there is unlikely to be any blowout games we could see a few 2-1, 3-1 type games in this group which in my opinion gives it a much better chance of winning then the line reflects. Strictly a value play here, still sitting on it....

perhaps:

Group W/ Most Goals: Group C @ +1225
 
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Posted: #13

World Cup: 0-0-0 (+/- 0.00 Units)

June: 12-9-0 (+2.60)

May: 41-29-1 (+10.97)



Brazil/Croatia---> UNDER 2.5 @ -115 (1.15 to win 1.00)



*Croatia does not need to beat brazil to go through

*Croatia does not need to tie brazil to go through

*Goal differential is CRUCIAL for Croatia


Goal differentiall is very important to this Croatia team and if they can devise a plan to lose 1-0 or 2-0 they will...1-0 is a very good result...2-0 is not great but survivable...0-0 would be excellent...Mandzukic is suspended and that limits them on offense even more so they will likely play even more defensively understanding that it will be difficult to score without their star striker and attacking will open things up for Brazil….


*Goal differential FAR LESS crucial for Brazil

*3 Points is the most important thing for them


For Brazil, say what you want but tie breaker really should not matter, and they will be primarily concerning themselves with WINNING. Even if somehow it does come down to tiebreaker they will get their chances to work the goal differential in their 3rd group stage game against Cameroon (a team who will be more likely to be playing wide open and needing 3 points by then). They will get AT LEAST 7 points and they will take 1st place. The mindset they will bring into this game is PATIENCE. When you are the team to beat you know teams will make a game plan like this and try to frustrate you but the key is to stay patient and find the goal without conceding anything on the counter attack.


The reason it is such a strong wager is because of Croatia's mindset. Even if they allow a first half goal they won't go crazy trying to get back in the game because truthfully 1-0 is a solid result. Brazil certainly won't expose themselves because if they get 3 points against the 2nd choice team in the group they have done their job.


The most probable outcomes that I can see are 1-0, 2-0….GL anyway you play it...


 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:

Group C


Colombia is my team, and I will be rooting for them all tournament. HOWEVER, I have to say I think we are getting really terrible prices to back them in this group stage. I think they could easily struggle in this group, granted I wouldn’t be shocked if they performed well and won the group. While this may be regarded as one of the weaker groups, I actually think it is more difficult than it appears at first glance, because there aren’t any stand out weak teams, which means everyone will have 3 tough matches that could ultimately go either way. Japan have excellent talent and play a really nice game to watch. They attack very well.  I think they have the most value of all the teams in this group.


They will get through. I see them winning the group.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:


They will get through. I see them winning the group.

I sure hope so
 
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Posted: #16
Good writeup on the Under bud and great points.

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Good writeup on the Under bud and great points.


 
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Posted: #18

for Friday:

Chile -1 @ -115 (1.15 to win 1.00)

 

                 

 
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Posted: #19
for Friday also looking into:

Spain/Netherlands---> UNDER 2 @ -103



I'm feeling less confident about Japan having success in group C (and a bit higher on Ivory Coast)...I will likely be looking to hedge out on them slightly throughout the group stage.

I'm feeling most confident in Bosnia and might look to tack a little more on them before opening kickoff...maybe even take a shot at them drawing Argentina

 
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Posted: #20
GL
 
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Posted: #21
GL
 
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Posted: #22
Japan/Ivory Coast---> OVER 2.5 @ +145 (1.00 to win 1.45)

 
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Posted: #23
Russia ML @ +130 (1.00 to win 1.30)

        
 
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Posted: #24

Good stuff Zamigo  I like that IC/JPN over, I put 2 units on the over 2 at 1.88, feeling kind of like a whimp for not pulling the 2.5 trigger.

 

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by PeterBlack:

Good stuff Zamigo  I like that IC/JPN over, I put 2 units on the over 2 at 1.88, feeling kind of like a whimp for not pulling the 2.5 trigger.

 


I usually play everything the whimpiest way possible but want to take a stab at that one
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