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World Cup Knockout Tournament.... Round of 16 and on....

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Posted: #101
MEXICO SUCKS  
"just win baby"
 
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Posted: #102
This one stings. Van had it called bang on...just didn't work out.
 
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Posted: #103
Another flop. Soccer sucks that way. A beautiful game and now another decided by a flop. Just like how the Greeks advanced.

I guess they have to call fouls in the box or guys would get mauled in there, but the ref has to be alert to the flops.

Someone tweeted:
Arjen Robben, you know he's going to be so fragile inside the 18-yard-box." Translation: He's a serial diver.

Imagine how much people would hate Robben if he had bit three people. So many dives.
 
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Posted: #104
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Interestingly enough....

Teams in the last 3 world cups who have won a penalty shootout are 0-7 in their next game.

Teams in the last 5 worlds cups (back to 1994) who have won a penalty shootout are 2-10 in their next game.

So they were 2-3 about what I expected. Then 0-7.  Brazil won WC on PKs then 4 years later won their next WC game.   See how that's done. Haha!
 
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Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:

Another flop. Soccer sucks that way. A beautiful game and now another decided by a flop. Just like how the Greeks advanced.

I guess they have to call fouls in the box or guys would get mauled in there, but the ref has to be alert to the flops.

Someone tweeted:
Arjen Robben, you know he's going to be so fragile inside the 18-yard-box." Translation: He's a serial diver.

Imagine how much people would hate Robben if he had bit three people. So many dives.

The 2nd half call was 50/50 but the first half call was a definite foul and non call, so I think it ended as it should have.
 
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Posted: #106
The worst thing Mexico did was score the first goal so early in the 2H. They spent the next 45 minutes standing around in their own end, watching the clock tick away. I don't believe they even had a shot on net after the goal. The way to win that game was to go out and score that 2nd goal, but they didn't even try. Very frustrating to watch them just quit playing offense. They got what they deserved. 
 
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Posted: #107

That one was very tough to take.

Jeesh.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


The 2nd half call was 50/50 but the first half call was a definite foul and non call, so I think it ended as it should have.

That's not really how it works though. If Mexico were down a goal everything tactical change in the 2nd half is offensive not defensive. Nothing looks the same after that. I'm not saying it was the right or the wrong call but every time people say this I can't help but say  
 
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Posted: #109
BOTH were penalties.  They missed one and got one correct.  Karma was with the Dutch today.  I though Mexico outplayed Netherlands badly in the first half and the Dutch answered late in the second. 
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

That one was very tough to take.

Jeesh.



I feel your pain. 
 
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Posted: #111
Clear flop but Mexico deserved loss.  As in any sport u play not to lose and u deserve to lose
 
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Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

The worst thing Mexico did was score the first goal so early in the 2H. They spent the next 45 minutes standing around in their own end, watching the clock tick away. I don't believe they even had a shot on net after the goal. The way to win that game was to go out and score that 2nd goal, but they didn't even try. Very frustrating to watch them just quit playing offense. They got what they deserved. 

This
 
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Posted: #113

There are games that you have no business winning because  you are clearly on the wrong side.  That's how it felt for me betting on the Dutch today.  MEX was the better side and should be the ones advancing today.  I'll take this one because there's  sure to be bad beats in the future (like you folks on MEX today). 

Hang in there..

 
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Posted: #114

Tactics played a large part of that 2nd half. Netherlands were set up in a 5-2-1-2 for the first 50 minutes which is essentially a formation to counter attack (Robben, Van Persie, Sneijder up top) with the back 5 and 2 holding midfielders almost looking like a back 7 when Mexico had the ball. When they realized they needed to push for a goal they switched to a 5-2-3 for more width in possession and looked like a completely different team. Mexico had to make them pay down the flanks, and they didn't, which was ultimately their demise.

It will be interesting to see how the Netherlands set up against Greece or Costa Rica. Both teams will obviously park the bus which would make me think they'd want to have the width needed to break them down: 5-2-3 or 4-3-3 would be my best guess. Even then I'm not sure how I feel about the Orange next round. They are clearly a team that wants to score quick and does not like to have a ton of possession. Next round is a terrible matchup no matter who it is because they will have 60% possession whether they want it or not - could be a frustrating match. They're the better team, no doubt, but think there will be value in fading them due solely to tactics.

 
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Posted: #115

reece / Costa Rica - Greece PK +116 (.5 unit) and Greece to advance +110 (.5 unit) - What can you say about this one?  It is definitely the stinker of the round of 16, and should be a very tight low scoring game decided by one or two events.  There is not a big tactical battle in this one - it is going to be defense first and counterattack second for both.

This is a line play for me on a coinflip type of game.  CR has a speed advantage up front but Greece have the experience at sitting back and counterattacking - so if CR get too adventurous they could easily get punished.  Just cant see this being anything but a 1 goal game.  There are better wagers ahead....  Predicted final score Greece 1 CR 0


Even though you had the wrong side, your analysis was spot on.  A bad goal allowed by the Greek keeper followed by a defensive gaffe by CR and it goes to penalty kicks. One save in 9 shots (by Navas) in the PK round, and you have a winner. Coinflip game just as you predicted. 

 
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Posted: #116
Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:


That's not really how it works though. If Mexico were down a goal everything tactical change in the 2nd half is offensive not defensive. Nothing looks the same after that. I'm not saying it was the right or the wrong call but every time people say this I can't help but say  

Exactly! 
Why do people keep saying it evened out?
Denying a team a deserved penalty shot in the 35th minute or whatever it was is not the same error as giving a flopper a shot in the 88th in a 1-1 match.
 
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy

 If any Northern European team can beat a strong team from the Americas, away from home, it is the Dutch (who have the kind of flair, worldliness and wherewithal needed to win in a game on foreign soil) not a vanilla Switzerland team that is likely to wilt and melt away under the heat and pressure.

  
[/Quote:


Of course, Mexico outplayed the Dutch for the first 55-60 minutes but I think the Dutch deserve a lot of credit for keeping their wits about them, not wilting under the heat and pressure, and coming back under very difficult (for them) playing conditions. Even the flop, if you wanna call it that, was a sign of their savviness, as they used a clear non-call on a foul, from earlier in the game, to their advantage. Meanwhile, Mexico went into a shell, offensively, and didn't do enough to win the game. They deserve as much blame for the loss as the Dutch deserve credit. Oh, and the substitution for the ineffective Van Persie, was a ballsy, brilliant move that paid off big time.
 
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Posted: #118


And it was as I predicted, in an earlier post:

"If any Northern European team can beat a strong team from the Americas, away from home, it is the Dutch (who have the kind of flair, worldliness and wherewithal needed to win in a game on foreign soil) not a vanilla Switzerland team that is likely to wilt and melt away under the heat and pressure."



 
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:

reece / Costa Rica - Greece PK +116 (.5 unit) and Greece to advance +110 (.5 unit) - What can you say about this one?  It is definitely the stinker of the round of 16, and should be a very tight low scoring game decided by one or two events.  There is not a big tactical battle in this one - it is going to be defense first and counterattack second for both.

This is a line play for me on a coinflip type of game.  CR has a speed advantage up front but Greece have the experience at sitting back and counterattacking - so if CR get too adventurous they could easily get punished.  Just cant see this being anything but a 1 goal game.  There are better wagers ahead....  Predicted final score Greece 1 CR 0


Even though you had the wrong side, your analysis was spot on.  A bad goal allowed by the Greek keeper followed by a defensive gaffe by CR and it goes to penalty kicks. One save in 9 shots (by Navas) in the PK round, and you have a winner. Coinflip game just as you predicted. 



No excuse for Greece. They had a man advantage starting at minute 66. 
 
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Posted: #120
That was a gutsy win by Costa Rica But how much will they have left in the tank? I think that stat Vanz pulled up, regarding teams that win on penalty kicks and their performance in the following game will apply to Costa Rica.
 
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Posted: #121
I would play against CR whatever the line is next game.  I think they will be on empty.
 
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Posted: #122
Agree 
 
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Posted: #123
Van.........Your threads have been awesome to follow.  Your knowledge of the game and teams has been fun to read.  
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

France / Nigeria - France -1 -124 (4 units) - This will be a big one for me, my biggest bet to date.

For me, France outclasses Nigeria at every position.  And this is a great tactical matchup for the French as well - as they are able to deal with defending the Nigerian speed very well.  The danger on Nigeria is Musa - his change of pace and high gear are a threat to any defense - but once again the Nigerian finishing leaves a lot to be desired.  They scored the least amount of goals in their 3 group games (3 goals) excluding Greece of all of the teams who advanced to the round of 16 - in a group where it has to be said that they should have scored more.

France on the other hand leads the WC in shots taken and shots on target.  Unfortunately for them - they took all of their shots in the Ecuador game right at the GK.  They are loaded with talent and options - and can adapt and play any style that suits them with the personnel to adapt.  France should dominate possession, and create plenty of chances.

This one is less about tactics and more about personnel, speed, talent, and quite simply goal scoring ability.  France wins with ease - Predicted final score France 3 Nigeria 0

 

Algeria / Germany - Over 3 goals +102 (1.5 units) - Algeria scored 6 in their first 3 games, scoring at lest one in each match - in a group that was really quite defensively minded.  They have really proven to be tactically adaptable - changing drastically from their first to their second to their third game - rotating half the team and playing vastly differently.  The one constant is the ability to be dangerous on attack - and vulnerable on counterattack.  Even in the game (Belgium) where they were most defensive minded, and played sitting way back - they scored one and allowed 2 - and there could have been more. 

What is there to say about the Germans.  I think by now everybody gets it.  I do not think they will be held at bay for 90 minutes even if that is what Algeria chooses to do - which I don't think they will do.  I expect Algeria to attack - really to counterattack - like they did against S Korea - it really is their only chance.  But that leaves them very vulnerable at the back - and it should allow Germany plenty of space.  The US / Germany game showed me something - for the first 15 minutes the US back line was packed back all the way in to the box - and in the first fifteen minutes there were about 5 good German chances on goal.  Algeria will know that they wont be able to pull off this tactic for 90 minutes - but at the same time - they do not have the defense that the US has.

What they do have is speed.  So I expect a classic possession controlled short passing team to dominate possession and then a team looking to counter fast - but Algeria just doesn't have the talent to pull it off.  They will get down - and then it will be attack - and that's when the goals come.  Algeria has had a great run and should be commended - but this is where it ends for them...  Predicted final score Germany 3 Algeria 1.


Love the France play, Vanz. This was the game I circled for this round and I'm glad we are on the same side here. This is also my biggest play to date, though I'm sure it is nothing compared to what you are risking. Let's get this!



 
 
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Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

France / Nigeria - France -1 -124 (4 units) - This will be a big one for me, my biggest bet to date.

For me, France outclasses Nigeria at every position.  And this is a great tactical matchup for the French as well - as they are able to deal with defending the Nigerian speed very well.  The danger on Nigeria is Musa - his change of pace and high gear are a threat to any defense - but once again the Nigerian finishing leaves a lot to be desired.  They scored the least amount of goals in their 3 group games (3 goals) excluding Greece of all of the teams who advanced to the round of 16 - in a group where it has to be said that they should have scored more.

France on the other hand leads the WC in shots taken and shots on target.  Unfortunately for them - they took all of their shots in the Ecuador game right at the GK.  They are loaded with talent and options - and can adapt and play any style that suits them with the personnel to adapt.  France should dominate possession, and create plenty of chances.

This one is less about tactics and more about personnel, speed, talent, and quite simply goal scoring ability.  France wins with ease - Predicted final score France 3 Nigeria 0

 

Algeria / Germany - Over 3 goals +102 (1.5 units) - Algeria scored 6 in their first 3 games, scoring at lest one in each match - in a group that was really quite defensively minded.  They have really proven to be tactically adaptable - changing drastically from their first to their second to their third game - rotating half the team and playing vastly differently.  The one constant is the ability to be dangerous on attack - and vulnerable on counterattack.  Even in the game (Belgium) where they were most defensive minded, and played sitting way back - they scored one and allowed 2 - and there could have been more. 

What is there to say about the Germans.  I think by now everybody gets it.  I do not think they will be held at bay for 90 minutes even if that is what Algeria chooses to do - which I don't think they will do.  I expect Algeria to attack - really to counterattack - like they did against S Korea - it really is their only chance.  But that leaves them very vulnerable at the back - and it should allow Germany plenty of space.  The US / Germany game showed me something - for the first 15 minutes the US back line was packed back all the way in to the box - and in the first fifteen minutes there were about 5 good German chances on goal.  Algeria will know that they wont be able to pull off this tactic for 90 minutes - but at the same time - they do not have the defense that the US has.

What they do have is speed.  So I expect a classic possession controlled short passing team to dominate possession and then a team looking to counter fast - but Algeria just doesn't have the talent to pull it off.  They will get down - and then it will be attack - and that's when the goals come.  Algeria has had a great run and should be commended - but this is where it ends for them...  Predicted final score Germany 3 Algeria 1.

Thanks yet again for the pics Van, and the weight on the Nigeria game is duly noted.

Managed to hedge the Mexico bet with about twelve minutes to go at +331 NED to advance, so I stemmed the bleeding. At that point Ned was +1800 to win outright!

Also going to tail on ALG-GER.

Also going to lay a half unit on Algeria to advance, based on karma and infamy. I have little doubt the Algerians have not forgotten.

At the price, I'll side with the concept that revenge is a dish best served cold. For those who have no idea what I'm talking about, this story is well worth a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/feb/25/world-cup-25-stunning-moments-no3-germany-austria-1982-rob-smyth 
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