World Cup Knockout Tournament.... Round of 16 and on....

You too.  I had a little bit more than I should have on them to win the second half.

I also won some on the over - ended up getting some at 2.5 an 3 - so even that won.

The last goal was a huge swing for me.

WC Final - Germany / Argentina - Germany to win in 90 minutes +130 (2 units), Germany to win WC -150 (2 units) - I heard Ian Darke say "this is a great World Cup without a great team" - and I really agree.  If you have a short memory - you might think Germany has been dominant, but they haven't been.  They very easily could have lost to Algeria, and were taken to the limit in their draw against Ghana. 

But since the Algeria match they have made 2 changes that seem to have made all the difference - along with the emergence of a key player.  They took out Mertesacker and put Lahm back to his normal role in the defense to replace him.  Lahm was nothing short of terrible in the first four matches in midfield - but his change back to defense resulted in two successive (basically) shutouts against Brazil and France.  Also key was the introduction of Klose - not so much because he has been spectacular because he has been pretty average - but it gives Germany's opposition a harder shape to defend - which plays in to the strength of Germany - the almost unstoppable midfield.  So even if Klose is just a decoy - it draws defenders away from the real threats.  Also - Khedira - who was really bad at the beginning of the tournament - has really come around and is playing much better.  Don't know if that was fitness or just improvement-  but it has had a huge impact.

I expect Germany to play exactly as they have played the last two games, with a very high defensive line - and Neuer playing "sweeper keeper".  This can be beat by speed and so I do expect Argentina to employ their fastest options at wing (like Aguerro) and maybe even sit Messi a little bit deeper to try and feed through balls up and over or through the high defensive German back line.  It is a shame for Argentina that DiMaria is out – I really think he is the type of player that can have a big impact against Germany.

Argentina has looked very pedestrian in their buildup to this game.  I almost say that apologetically – because I know that they have not reached their full potential – but there are some weaknesses – mainly on defense that can be exploited.  But in a one game series – which this is – there is no way of arguing that Argentina at their best cant easily win this game.  There is no need to talk any more about “messi dependence” because it got them this far and they are going to try it again I am sure – but I do think his role will be different – much more as a playmaker than a scoring threat.  The key to this game for Argentina – more than any other they have played – is to be able to get players in and behind the German defense.  Messi will find them.  He is a master at the perfectly weighted through ball.

I just think with all things considered – for one game – Germany just have more options to win than Argentina.  If the midfield trio of Germany get going – and they are able to keep possession and frustrate Argentina – they should get plenty of chances.  My fear is that Argentina come out and play like they did against the Netherlands – slow it down – and play physical – just to limit Germany possessions and chances – but I still see Germany able to overcome that and force the tempo.  It will be a grind down sort of effort from the Germans – with lots of possession leading to lots of Argentine frustration leading to probably a late goal or two. I do think the bettors have made this line too low for Germany – because of short term memory issues with gamblers – but I cant get away from the simple fact that I think Germany has too many ways to win this game.  Predicted final score Germany 2 Argentina 1 in 90 mins.

They will get a shitload of criticism - all of it deserved.  Their effort was terrible.

However I do agree that like in boxing you need to decisively beat the defending champ, anything close is going to called his way.Ditto any larger more popula, higher respected legacy team in a tourney like this

Germany did what I wanted Chile and then Colombia to do:

Stay away from every Brazilian player on the pitch. As soon as there is any contact whatsoever there will be a foul against you, avoid contact unless you are solidly dribbling in posession - passing, short and long, open the field.

Offsides, you can't even be close, stay a man and a half back otherwise everything will be offsides if it is close.

I know it is harder to play this way but if not, you will lose against Brazil and the FIFA Refs in Brazil, because of every close call and non call in favor of the "Champ"

Germany did this. After the 2nd goal it did'nt really matter, 2-0, 3-0, 5-0, 22-0 - it's all the same.

And Van I can't go back enough to quote you so I paraphrase, "Neymar would not have been hurt had the refs not let the game get out of hand"

How it got out of hand was at the expense of a much better Colombian team and I say this as an objective gambler/afficionado, not as  a fan of the national team who lost a sizable wager.

And BTW - for those rooting for the over yesterday - yes there could have been penalties - but to me - this was the worst call that denied a goal....

They actually called a foul on this.

https://abload.de/img/untitled-3nlkyg.gif

And BTW - for those rooting for the over yesterday - yes there could have been penalties - but to me - this was the worst call that denied a goal....

They actually called a foul on this.

https://abload.de/img/untitled-3nlkyg.gif