Posted:
#76
Mex and greece getting mone
0
World Cup Knockout Tournament.... Round of 16 and on....
Posted:
#78
Van,
This has been my 1st time posting in your WC thread(s) but I have definitely been lurking in them….tailing some plays and fading others. Just wanted to say thanks for all of the insight and good reads 
I see you have Mexco tomorrow…it's a nice price on them too. I have this feeling that the Dutch put together a gem and their experience really pays off for them tomorrow. So essentially I will be fading you tomorrow on this play but I think it will be very close (like you) but I think the Dutch put together a 1-0 or 2-1 win in regular time. Nonetheless, BOL buddy 
Excellent call on Colombia today by the way…I tailed you on that one for an easy W.
I will probably drop by again soon with a little input on a few plays. I don't have a strong feeling for that Greece/Costa Rica play but my tail you with Greece in that one for a little wager. Not expecting anything exciting out of that match.
0
Posted:
#80
Quote Originally Posted by Raiders22:
Brazil won in Sweden? Always thought this is an overrated trend also.
Yea I actually didn't look at Sweden. Was just taking into consideration those played in countries that would be considered European soccer powers (England, Spain, Italy, France, Germany). Sweden is fairly neutral in that regard.
It does seem like an overrated trend, and I will be somewhat surprised if it holds up this year... but you gotta respect it on some level.
0
Posted:
#81
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Interestingly enough....
Teams in the last 3 world cups who have won a penalty shootout are 0-7 in their next game.
Teams in the last 5 worlds cups (back to 1994) who have won a penalty shootout are 2-10 in their next game.
Somewhat surprising, but I guess those teams are physically and emotionally drained.
0
Posted:
#83
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Interestingly enough....
Teams in the last 3 world cups who have won a penalty shootout are 0-7 in their next game.
Teams in the last 5 worlds cups (back to 1994) who have won a penalty shootout are 2-10 in their next game.
Interesting so my question Van is how much do you weigh trends when you bet. And that would be any sport.
0
Posted:
#85
Game Bets:
18.5 - 21
-4.34 units
Futures:
-6.5 units
Pending:
France to win WC +2500 (1 unit)
France to reach quarterfinals +100 (1 unit)
Mexico / Netherlands - Mexico PK and +.5 +102 (1 unit), Mexico to advance +160 (1.5 units) - I said this at the beginning of the tournament in my preview: "I don’t really see how Mexico just suddenly flips a switch from their horrendous qualifying campaign." It is clear now that that was misguided.
Mexico's success can be largely attributed - once again - to their 3 man defense with speedy wing play. It is concerning that they only scored 4 goals - although they probably had 2 in the Cameroon game that should have counted. But they didn't score against Croatia until late when Croatia was in attack at all costs mode, but eventually got 3 goals.
This is going to be an extremely interesting tactical matchup as Louis Van Gaal has proven to be the tournaments chameleon - and to great success - altering his tactics drastically in every game and changing personnel to match the style. We might see both sides take the 3 man defense approach - which will be decided down the flanks - but I think the Netherlands will come out with a high line with 4 in the back and challenge Mexico to get in behind them - like they played against Spain.
The Netherlands weakness is clearly on defense - and although they swept their group play - you can point to the Australia game to show just how much trouble the Dutch had defending outside in attacks. If the Mexicans can get space and speed down the wings - which I believe they will - they should have lots of success against a Dutch defense that struggles against this exact type of play. On the opposite side of the pitch - RVP is back and so is Robben - and they have proven to be very dangerous - but the key to stopping them is playing a little bit more compact and central on defense and not allowing the 50 yard runs that they have been able to make on defenses allowing them space by playing high lines. I assume Mexico will know this - and will be well scouted on not allowing the Robben cut ins or RVP to have space inside the box. Let the other guys beat you - and let the Dutch beat you by either crosses - but do not let them get in behind you.
I see this as a very even match, and possibly extra time and PK's. Just think the Dutch are getting too much love in the betting line based on their 3 impressive wins.... Predicted final score 1-1 in 90, Mexico advance in ET or PK's.
Greece / Costa Rica - Greece PK +116 (.5 unit) and Greece to advance +110 (.5 unit) - What can you say about this one? It is definitely the stinker of the round of 16, and should be a very tight low scoring game decided by one or two events. There is not a big tactical battle in this one - it is going to be defense first and counterattack second for both.
This is a line play for me on a coinflip type of game. CR has a speed advantage up front but Greece have the experience at sitting back and counterattacking - so if CR get too adventurous they could easily get punished. Just cant see this being anything but a 1 goal game. There are better wagers ahead.... Predicted final score Greece 1 CR 0
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#86
France / Nigeria - France -1 -124 (4 units) - This will be a big one for me, my biggest bet to date.
For me, France outclasses Nigeria at every position. And this is a great tactical matchup for the French as well - as they are able to deal with defending the Nigerian speed very well. The danger on Nigeria is Musa - his change of pace and high gear are a threat to any defense - but once again the Nigerian finishing leaves a lot to be desired. They scored the least amount of goals in their 3 group games (3 goals) excluding Greece of all of the teams who advanced to the round of 16 - in a group where it has to be said that they should have scored more.
France on the other hand leads the WC in shots taken and shots on target. Unfortunately for them - they took all of their shots in the Ecuador game right at the GK. They are loaded with talent and options - and can adapt and play any style that suits them with the personnel to adapt. France should dominate possession, and create plenty of chances.
This one is less about tactics and more about personnel, speed, talent, and quite simply goal scoring ability. France wins with ease - Predicted final score France 3 Nigeria 0
Algeria / Germany - Over 3 goals +102 (1.5 units) - Algeria scored 6 in their first 3 games, scoring at lest one in each match - in a group that was really quite defensively minded. They have really proven to be tactically adaptable - changing drastically from their first to their second to their third game - rotating half the team and playing vastly differently. The one constant is the ability to be dangerous on attack - and vulnerable on counterattack. Even in the game (Belgium) where they were most defensive minded, and played sitting way back - they scored one and allowed 2 - and there could have been more.
What is there to say about the Germans. I think by now everybody gets it. I do not think they will be held at bay for 90 minutes even if that is what Algeria chooses to do - which I don't think they will do. I expect Algeria to attack - really to counterattack - like they did against S Korea - it really is their only chance. But that leaves them very vulnerable at the back - and it should allow Germany plenty of space. The US / Germany game showed me something - for the first 15 minutes the US back line was packed back all the way in to the box - and in the first fifteen minutes there were about 5 good German chances on goal. Algeria will know that they wont be able to pull off this tactic for 90 minutes - but at the same time - they do not have the defense that the US has.
What they do have is speed. So I expect a classic possession controlled short passing team to dominate possession and then a team looking to counter fast - but Algeria just doesn't have the talent to pull it off. They will get down - and then it will be attack - and that's when the goals come. Algeria has had a great run and should be commended - but this is where it ends for them... Predicted final score Germany 3 Algeria 1.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#87
If you want to hear some epic goal calls - check out the Colombian TV announcers... Especially the second goal...
https://screamer.deadspin.com/the-james-rodriguez-wondergoal-as-called-on-colombian-1597472344
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#88
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
If you want to hear some epic goal calls - check out the Colombian TV announcers... Especially the second goal...
https://screamer.deadspin.com/the-james-rodriguez-wondergoal-as-called-on-colombian-1597472344
LMAO
0
Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
If you want to hear some epic goal calls - check out the Colombian TV announcers... Especially the second goal...
https://screamer.deadspin.com/the-james-rodriguez-wondergoal-as-called-on-colombian-1597472344
Cool that you posted those calls. Although it's become second nature to me to hear these goals called like that because I live in Colombia, it's nice that people from outside Colombia can hear the passion and famous 'GOOOOOOOOAAAAL'. I love when he does the 'De COLO de COLO de COLOMBIAAAAAAAAAAAAA'. The Latin American Spanish calling of football matches in particular the Colombian brand is outta this world..
0
Posted:
#93
Robin Van Persie missed the last match in the group stage due to cards. He will be well rested for this match. Ochoa "Mexicos goal keeper" has made several key saves in the group stage. However the Dutch will find the net in this match. I don't see Mexico creating nearly the amount of chances the Dutch will. I'm expecting tight match for the first 45, 0-1 or 1-1. The last 45 the Dutch will open up the game scoring atleast 2 goals to Mexicos 0 or 1 in the second half. Around the 80th minute with Mexico down 2-1, 2-0, 3-1. Mexico subs in a guy or 2 with the team playing forward hoping to score but missing and finding themselves surrendering another Dutch goal. So the Netherlands net 3+ to Mexicos 1 or 0.
0
Posted:
#96
Van,I wouldn't claim to know 15% of what u know on soccer,but I see Netherlands defeating Mexico..I see this game like Bama(Netherlands)vs Oklahoma(Mexico)in CFb.I just can't get myself to bet against Mexico but I sure took a beating on that Sugar .I really like your soccer write ups because its gives us an angle to agree or disagree with an more importantly think about the game.If I thought u would do it I'd offer to pay u for capping soccer, but I'm in my infancy stages wagering on it.Is my analysis of Bama to Netherlands and Oklahoma to Mexico way off?This coach for Mexico cleaned house when he took over.My only problem with soccer is I can only watch a single game in 1/day and if I don't watch the teams I just cant win.Actually looking to open a halfway house end of fall for drug addicts getting released from prison because I can give back plus its just crazy profitable.And no I won't drag them into sports betting.
0
Posted:
#98
Re-Continent debate-how can you consider a 14/15 counting the Sweden Cup as NOT significant? Solid reasons for it IMO, and very high % with more than a few instances...
No way Colombia plays this well in Paris,etc..
The shootout angle also seems very valid-not just from energy but it tells me if Brazil and other losers in this situation were really good, they wouldn't have been in that situation-hence real value in next opponent...
I'm all over Columbia-Brazil was taking cheap desperate shots all day at Chile, they're under huge pressure, many yellow card issues, this is all going to end ugly Friday-big play for me...reminds me of the Yanks-Red Sox in 2004-at home, it unraveled in game 7...
Colombia-why not us?
0
Posted:
#100
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
Re-Continent debate-how can you consider a 14/15 counting the Sweden Cup as NOT significant? Solid reasons for it IMO, and very high % with more than a few instances...
Re-Continent debate-how can you consider a 14/15 counting the Sweden Cup as NOT significant? Solid reasons for it IMO, and very high % with more than a few instances...
No way Colombia plays this well in Paris,etc..
The shootout angle also seems very valid-not just from energy but it tells me if Brazil and other losers in this situation were really good, they wouldn't have been in that situation-hence real value in next opponent...
I'm all over Columbia-Brazil was taking cheap desperate shots all day at Chile, they're under huge pressure, many yellow card issues, this is all going to end ugly Friday-big play for me...reminds me of the Yanks-Red Sox in 2004-at home, it unraveled in game 7...
Colombia-why not us?
That's the spirit - why not us.
That ESPN 30 for 30 doco about the game 7 win was excellent. Here come Colombia!
0
Hot Forum Topics
