Yeah - I feel kind of funny making that prediction - and I guess I wouldn't be the Swiss at even money to advance - but I do think they have a good shot to pull it off. If they don't, somebody else will....
Just to get these together and on the same page...
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Brazil / Chile - Brazil -1 in 90 mins -105 (2 units) - Brazil have won, but haven't impressed. Its not good enough that Brazil wins, they have enormous pressure to win impressively. Their defense is playing very well giving up only 2 goals in their first 3 games - but the offense has sputtered. But look closer - have they really?
They dominated their performance against Mexico while not being able to score, and blitzed Cameroon. Their real struggle was against Croatia scoring 3 very weak goals. If you look in to some team stats so far, Brail are only 10th out of 32 in shot totals - but first in shots on target by a very long way (70% on target) and first in goals / shots ratio - all of this with the performance of Mexico GK Ochoa. This opposed to Chile who have produced the 29th out of 32 in the tournament in shots and only slightly better in shots on target. Chile benefitted from a perfect team for them to play in Spain, which created lots of turnovers in key positions.
Chile play the 3 man defense I mentioned above with 2 wingbacks getting in to wide positions in attack. I just feel that the Brazil defense is more than capable of handling the wide attack and forcing Chile to attack up the center - which doesn't suit them. Chile will also keep up with the high press - which for example worked to perfection against a slow Spanish side and created turnovers and chances - but I don't see it working against Brazil. And when it doesn't work - you see what happens like in the Netherlands / Chile game - if their opposition can get it out of the back with one or two exit passes you have man advantages on the counterattack. Brazil should exploit this - and this is the key to the game.
Brazil have the skill and speed to make the connections between the back 4 and the attack quickly to beat the press - and create lots of scoring chances which they have already proven to be lethally effective. I wanted to like Chile here - they clearly have been an easy team to watch and the popular thought is that Brazil is not as good overall as advertised - but this is not the spot. Predicted final score is a repeat of WC 2010 - Brazil 3 Chile 0.
Colombia / Uruguay - Colombia to win in 90 mins +103 (2 units) - Age and experience vs youth and speed. That about sums this one up. Oh - and one other small thing - no Luis Suarez.
Colombia and Uruguay are no strangers splitting their two qualifiers against each other - each winning at home.
Colombia won their 3 group games impressively - but it has to be said - they were in a relatively easy group - possibly the easiest 3 games of anyone still in the tournament - not so much from talent although that argument can be made - but more that the three sides they faced were very similar tactically and Colombia could play basically the same throughout. But they did win - and looked good doing it. Their speed down the flanks is frightening with most of their 9 goals so far coming from wide positions due to speed.
Uruguay have prospered for much different reasons - being able to stay in close games and taking advantage of finishing at key moments late in games. I hate to sound cliché like and ESPN reporter - but it has to be said - the loss of Suarez is just huge. And it isn't speculation - we have clear evidence of this from the difference in their first game against CR without Suarez (they scored only on a PK), and then their games against England and Italy with him. Its no coincidence. Uruguay without Suarez is a slow build side - with little surprise in any way that they play - hoping to just outgrind their opposition. The defense is limited and immobile. Look at their first 3 games defensively - CR picked them apart in the air and ground, England should have scored more only missing wide open chances, and Italy is just the same type of team as Uruguay which greatly benefitted them - along with Italy playing for basically a draw. I fear for this defense against Colombia.
Uruguay are close to the bottom of the pack in shots on goal - even with Suarez - with only 10 in 3 games - amazingly scoring on 4 of the 10. But this has to be considered problematic - considering Suarez accounted for most of them.
I am aware that this is somewhat of a "square" or popular play. It is the obvious side. I get that. But the narrative is there for me to support it. I just don't see Uruguay having the guns or the stamina (lets not forget this is the 4th game in 2 weeks in extreme conditions). Predicted final score Colombia 2 Uruguay 0 |
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Mexico / Netherlands - Mexico PK and +.5 +102 (1 unit), Mexico to advance +160 (1.5 units) - I said this at the beginning of the tournament in my preview: "I don’t really see how Mexico just suddenly flips a switch from their horrendous qualifying campaign." It is clear now that that was misguided. Mexico's success can be largely attributed - once again - to their 3 man defense with speedy wing play. It is concerning that they only scored 4 goals - although they probably had 2 in the Cameroon game that should have counted. But they didn't score against Croatia until late when Croatia was in attack at all costs mode, but eventually got 3 goals. This is going to be an extremely interesting tactical matchup as Louis Van Gaal has proven to be the tournaments chameleon - and to great success - altering his tactics drastically in every game and changing personnel to match the style. We might see both sides take the 3 man defense approach - which will be decided down the flanks - but I think the Netherlands will come out with a high line with 4 in the back and challenge Mexico to get in behind them - like they played against Spain. The Netherlands weakness is clearly on defense - and although they swept their group play - you can point to the Australia game to show just how much trouble the Dutch had defending outside in attacks. If the Mexicans can get space and speed down the wings - which I believe they will - they should have lots of success against a Dutch defense that struggles against this exact type of play. On the opposite side of the pitch - RVP is back and so is Robben - and they have proven to be very dangerous - but the key to stopping them is playing a little bit more compact and central on defense and not allowing the 50 yard runs that they have been able to make on defenses allowing them space by playing high lines. I assume Mexico will know this - and will be well scouted on not allowing the Robben cut ins or RVP to have space inside the box. Let the other guys beat you - and let the Dutch beat you by either crosses - but do not let them get in behind you. I see this as a very even match, and possibly extra time and PK's. Just think the Dutch are getting too much love in the betting line based on their 3 impressive wins.... Predicted final score 1-1 in 90, Mexico advance in ET or PK's.
Greece / Costa Rica - Greece PK +116 (.5 unit) and Greece to advance +110 (.5 unit) - What can you say about this one? It is definitely the stinker of the round of 16, and should be a very tight low scoring game decided by one or two events. There is not a big tactical battle in this one - it is going to be defense first and counterattack second for both. This is a line play for me on a coinflip type of game. CR has a speed advantage up front but Greece have the experience at sitting back and counterattacking - so if CR get too adventurous they could easily get punished. Just cant see this being anything but a 1 goal game. There are better wagers ahead.... Predicted final score Greece 1 CR 0 |
Van, good stuff as always and your insight is appreciated. You seem to be hitting your stride with better results of late.
I had MEX to advance and want to pull the trigger here, but I think they will have a tough time with the Dutch. Aside from the Germans, I don't think they could not have drawn a worse opponent . The Dutch like to play physical, and their size could present issues. I paid attention to friendlies before the WC, and their last loss was to Bosnia. Solid, physical opponents do not seem to suit this MEX team well. MEX is .. and always has been an undersized squad.
I also think the US has a good shot. Even though I put that Belgium will likely advance - I think it will be a battle - and I think the US +.5 at even money is a good value.
Not that it means too much... But some prep reading for those who might not know that the US played Belgium a year ago and lost 4-2 with a pretty full squad....
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2013/may/30/usa-belgium-international-friendly
Cant really argue with any of that. Good write up - thanks for contributing....
Blind and winning > informed and losing. 
But thanks - and I certainly hope France makes a run.
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