World Cup Knockout Tournament.... Round of 16 and on....

Colombia / Brazil - Colombia +.5 +110 (1 unit) Colombia to advance +215 (1 unit) - I cant resist.  Call me a square.  I know everyone is on this, and I will join the masses.  Current form and potential vs pedigree and home field.

But everything in recent form points to the Colombians to at least play a close game here.  Brazil is coming off of the exhausting PK shootout - and their third performance out of four that has to be seriously questioned.  They just dont look to have a style that fits them - they have changed it up almost every game - and nobody is stepping up to lead the team.  Oscar was the star of the first game against Croatia - but has disappeared since.  Hulk had a decent game against Chile, but terrible otherwise.  Fred cant hit the side of a barn.  Mark my words - Julio (or as I call him - Julia) Caesar is a liability and will make a mistake or two that will knock this team out.  I have seen too much of this guy at my club team QPR to trust him.

Chile was a great example of one way to beat Brazil - they played a frantic press that led to their goal off of a steal on a throw in - and disrupted Brazil all game.  They turned it in to an ugly turnover fest that Brazil really didnt have much answer for - it disrupted what Brazil wanted to do and what they did in the first 15 minutes of the game.  Colombia has the speed to pull off what Chile did - but have more individual finishing quality.

Colombia couldnt be more the opposite.  They are quietly winning with their defense - still only allowing  2 goals (a late goal to IC and a meaningless goal to Japan) in 4 games.  Yes - they havent played the brightest offensive teams in the tournament - and I am nervous that the lack of competition might be putting bias in to my selection.  Their defense is relatively untested and I worry that if they are to collapse it will definitely be in the defensive third.  I think there will be lots of wing play by Colombia - with outside in runs to get behind the Brazilian defense with speed - and like I said earlier - sometimes it is as simple as finishing - and Colombia has provent hat they can put the ball on net.  Predicted final score Colombia 2 Brazil 1

Argentina / Belgium - Belgium PK and +.5 in 90 mins +105 (1.5 units), Belgium to advance +150 (1.5 units) - I have come to hate this Belgium team.  Beating the US was the final straw, but their cardiac performances in every game were at times not worth winning the bet.  And that TinTin lookalike Kevin De Bruyne needs to just go away.  But all of that being said - there is a blueprint to beat Argentina that has been exposed in their last several games.

Its simple.  Stop Messi.  Yes, I know....  But you cant point to any one team in this tournament that has relied on one player more - not only for scoring - but if you watch Argentinas performance against Switzerland it was funny at times how when Argentina got the ball they only looked for one thing - Messi.  So Switzerland marked him all game - a lot of times with 2 and sometimes even 3 - and they almost pulled it off.  There is no creativity outside of Messi on Argentina - and they have come to rely on him too much.  I almost think they would be better off benching the guy - because then at least the other great players would actually play instead of always feeding the beast.  Iran almost did it.  Bosnia almost did it.  Nigeria didnt try to do it.  Switzerland did it - and almost pulled it off.  Argentina is flawed and I have yet to see a plan B, and these one dimensional teams lose - it is always just a matter of time.

But I wish it wasnt Belgium.  The argument could easily be made that Belgiums games so far are almost a mirror image of Argentinas - with one exception - the hero has come from more than one guy.  But still - Belgium clearly hasnt been impressive.  Their issues stem from their ability to dominate in games for long stretches but their total inability to finish.  And in the end - finishing is what wins games - and bets.  But I am banking on Wilmots putting two marks on Messi in the midfield and kicking the hell out of his ankles at every opportunity.  In transition -Belgiums speed should give Argentina's back 4 problems - especially Rojo who has been extremely adventurous and sometimes leaving big space behind him.

So it is pretty simple.  Make someone other than Messi beat you - and force Argentina to play a plan b.  I picked Argentina to win the tournament before it started - but nothing I have seen from them make me believe they can do it unless there is a massive shift in their philosophy.  Last world cup the Argentinians were upset that Maradona made Messi invisible - I think this time they will be upset that Sabella made Messi the only option.  This is a really close game - and "I don't see why Argentina are favored".  Predicted final score 1-1 and someone wins in PK's.

VAN, great thread, excellent discussion, outstanding picks, and match handicaps, appreciate your effort immensely. the best to you always

later......