2012-13 Covers Posted Soccer: 162-136 +46.75 units
Portugesa v Fluminese over 2.5 +125 2 units
The home side (Portugesa) currently sits near the bottom of the table with only 3 points to show from 4 games played so far and they need to start getting some results. They have conceded an average of a goal a game and managed to score 3 so far early this season. They should come into this game with an air of confidence however after having drawn 0-0 against a much better Corinthians squad.
Fluminese sit in 4th having taken 9 points from their first 4 games with three wins and a loss. They have scored 8 goals this campaign and allowed 4 for a per game average of 3. They like to play an open style of football.
Portugesa will not progress in the top flight league if they don’t start playing to win and as a result, I expect them to attack Fluminese tonight on their home soil to look for that first win of the year. Fluminese’s defence has looked suspect at times and this is a game I expect to be fairly open in that Fluminese likes to attack (Fluminese had 10 men on the pitch when they scored their game winner against Goias so they can certainly attack – a game that I bet the over on).
Fluminese has managed at least 2 goals scored a game in their last 5 overall and have seen all of their last 5 games reach 3 combined goals or more. They should also have confidence in the fact they have scored 2 goals in their last 3 matches against Portugesa. Historically this has also been a high scoring series.
There are absentees tonight for Fluminese but as I often note, many times when there are absentees, we get a better line as the public generally expects the reserves to play sub-par however, many times these opportunities provide players who normally don’t see a lot of action to show their worth. As well, many times there are slightly more errors on the pitch that lead to chances for the opposition. Given the number of defensive absentees for Fluminese though, including their goaltender, Fluminese is vulnerable tonight but I don’t see them staying off the scoresheet themselves.
This is a game Portugesa can win and I expect them to go for the win in this game which should make for an attack minded match given the notable absentees for Fluminese including their starting goaltender. Fluminese won’t go down without a fight and given that Portugesa will go for the win against a depleted Fluminese, I expect to see goals in this one because Fluminese won't sit back either... it's not the way they play.
* This game is available at 2.25 -103 if you want a little more safety with your wager but I have played the +125 because all my power ratings give me a game with 3 goals scored, minimum, and in fact, the total rating for this game is 4.11 so I have by-passed the 2.25 line and gone for the odds getting .25 cents on the dollar and played the over 2.5 at +125. TWO of my models gave me a 2-2 result