This is a simple handicap of taking the better team to win. I like to fade a team that had a miraculous result to get to this point. LASK was down 3-0 to Celtic on aggregate and even down 1-0 to start the game at home and somehow Celtic imploded as they usually do in European play away from home. The Greek champions AEK are very good at home and this will most likely be the only game that they are favourites. I expect them to go for the full 3 points from the onset and get the job done.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The Champions league proper starts on Tuesday.
TUE SEP 8
1. AEK ATHENS ML @ 1.78/-128 (1u) Pinnacle
This is a simple handicap of taking the better team to win. I like to fade a team that had a miraculous result to get to this point. LASK was down 3-0 to Celtic on aggregate and even down 1-0 to start the game at home and somehow Celtic imploded as they usually do in European play away from home. The Greek champions AEK are very good at home and this will most likely be the only game that they are favourites. I expect them to go for the full 3 points from the onset and get the job done.
2. Lille/Real Betis UNDER 2.5 total goals @ 2.05/+105 (1u) Pinnacle
Lille form wise have had only 1 out of their last 4 games go over the total. They also have 2 clean sheets out of the first 3 games to start the season. Betis have only had 1 of their past 5 games go over and they have recorded 3 clean sheets out of their first 4 games to start their play including keeping Real Madrid to zero goals their last game. Anything at 1.80/-125 or better is value where neither side will need to all out attack for their first match. My numbers have this as a 1-1 draw. I also considered taking the HT draw but wanted 2.50/+150 which I could not find.
TUE SEP 8
2. Lille/Real Betis UNDER 2.5 total goals @ 2.05/+105 (1u) Pinnacle
Lille form wise have had only 1 out of their last 4 games go over the total. They also have 2 clean sheets out of the first 3 games to start the season. Betis have only had 1 of their past 5 games go over and they have recorded 3 clean sheets out of their first 4 games to start their play including keeping Real Madrid to zero goals their last game. Anything at 1.80/-125 or better is value where neither side will need to all out attack for their first match. My numbers have this as a 1-1 draw. I also considered taking the HT draw but wanted 2.50/+150 which I could not find.
Napoli started their champions league campaign with a 1-0 home loss to Arsenal where as Villareal lost to Dortmund. Obviously neither side will want to start 0-2 so I expect more of a cautious measured approach that might result in a draw. Napoli away from home have a very good record with only 1 away loss going back to February.
TUE OCT 13
3. Napoli +0.5 @ 1.81/-123 (1u) Pinnacle
Napoli started their champions league campaign with a 1-0 home loss to Arsenal where as Villareal lost to Dortmund. Obviously neither side will want to start 0-2 so I expect more of a cautious measured approach that might result in a draw. Napoli away from home have a very good record with only 1 away loss going back to February.
In no way should the city cheaters be this much of a favourites over the champions PSG. City are coming off of an emotional win over Liverpool but I think PSG is just a different animal. The last head to head meeting PSG won 4-2. I like the double chance for the visitors.
WED OCT 13
4. PSG +0.5 @ 1.96/-104 (1u) Pinnacle
In no way should the city cheaters be this much of a favourites over the champions PSG. City are coming off of an emotional win over Liverpool but I think PSG is just a different animal. The last head to head meeting PSG won 4-2. I like the double chance for the visitors.